Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Lexington Stakes odds, analysis

With Saturday’s race awarding 2018 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 20-8-4-2 basis to the Top 4 finishers, My Boy Jack — third in the Louisiana Derby, and winner of the Southwest Stakes — is in hoping to earn his trip to Churchill Downs.

The Lexington marks the Derby trail’s final stop Saturday along with the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Note that the forecast calls for rain. With post time set for 5:34 p.m. ET at Keeneland, here’s a look at the field with early odds by Horse Racing Nation:

1. Battle At Sea, 15-1 (Into Mischief — Mike Maker — 5: 2-0-1 — $77,025): Stretching out to a mile and longer allowed this one to break his maiden in start No. 4, then win the Crescent City Derby last out. The catch: Both of those victories came against state-breds at New Orleans’ Fair Grounds. Going into open competition, he’ll face a new challenge. The inside post may help if he breaks well, with this runner liking the lead early in his route races. A live longshot.

2. Telekinesis, 6-1 (Ghostzapper — Mark Casse — 2: 1-0-1 — $29,330): A bit late to the races, this one has always been held in high regard by Casse. After Telekinesis broke his maiden impressively on debut, he faced older horses at Fair Grounds, finishing third while upping the distance to 1 1/16 miles. With just two starts — one pace-setting, the other pace-pressing — his preferred running style is an unknown. This race could declare him a serious contender for a race like the Queen’s Plate, for which he was named Winter Book favorite. Needs to carry early speed farther.

3. Seven Trumpets, 10-1 (Morning Line — Dale Romans — 6: 2-1-0 — $154,400): It's now five tracks in five starts for the West Point Thoroughbreds trainee, who wintered in Florida and is back to training at Churchill Downs after running fourth last out in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. With rain in the Saturday forecast, this is one to watch, as his best effort came on the muddy going in the Jan. 13 Jerome Stakes, a half-length defeat to Firenze Fire. A rough trip prevented him from better on a similar surface in the Grade 3 Southwest. Moves up if it rains.

4. Honor Up, 12-1 (To Honor and Serve — Bill Mott — 5: 1-2-0 — $65,350): A colt that debuted last summer at Saratoga, then ran second to eventual Florida Derby winner Audible by 1 3/4 lengths in November, won at fifth asking on Dec. 9. Mott, who got a Florida Derby runner-up from Hofburg at the Grade 1 level right off a maiden score, shows similar confidence in this one to end a four-month layoff. But efforts like Hofburg’s are rare. Might need a race.

5. Magicalmesiter, 20-1 (Bodemeister — James Chapman — 4: 2-0-1 — $61,010): His top performance came in Turfway Park’s John Battaglia Memorial on Feb. 23, but the colt failed to back it up last out in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks over the same synthetic surface. He won his only dirt start, though that was for a $22,000 maiden purse at Ohio’s Mahoning Valley. He figures to sit just off the pace early, but will need better a career-best effort to win it with his top Brisnet Speed Rating a 91 so far. Appears to be out-classed.

6. Greyvitos, 4-1 (Malibu Moon — Adam Kitchingman — 4: 2-0-1 — $306,345): One of the Derby trail’s big early names proved distance is no problem while taking an outside trip to win Remington Park’s Springboard Mile back on Dec. 17. But he hasn’t run since then due to surgery to remove bone chips. Works have been consistent since the end of February, and he should have some base fitness left over. This is a tough ask, but a tip of the cap to connections not throwing him straight into the Arkansas Derby. In this race, he can contend.

7. Pony Up, 8-1 (Aikenite — Todd Pletcher — 6: 1-4-0 — $113,780): The former turf runner made the switch to the main track at the same time as Kentucky Derby contender Flameaway, who edged him by a neck in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes Jan. 6 at Gulfstream Park. To go next in the Grade 2 Holy Bull was a tough ask — Pony Up ran fifth — but he showed a closing kick to run second in the Jeff Ruby last out. Backing up from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/16 won’t help in that regard. He’ll hope for a better trip. A closer to consider.

8. Gracida, 30-1 (Custom for Carlos — Doug O’Neill — 4: 1-0-1 — $50,595): A Louisiana-bred trained by O’Neill? Now we’ve seen it all. This $400,000 purchase broke his maiden at five furlongs last July before running into a monster in Bolt d’Oro in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity. Running lately in his home state, the horse hasn’t showcased anything to indicate he can contend here, either. Notably, two starts back he was fourth on a sloppy Delta Downs track. Looks like a toss.

9. Navy Armed Guard, 25-1 (Midshipman — Joan Scott — 8: 1-2-3 — $50,525): Running into classier horses prevented this one from breaking his maiden until start No. 8, last out going a mile and 40 yards at Tampa Bay Downs. He was a respectable fifth facing Flameaway, Vino Rosso and others in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis. But there are some horses on that level here, too. It’s worth noting Navy Armed Guard went to the lead and kept it — a new running style — in his maiden score. But an 86 Brisnet Speed Rating doesn’t indicating he fits here. Up against it facing winners again.

10. Zanesville, 15-1 (Tiznow — Tom Amoss — 6: 2-1-0 — $68,296): Fourth in the Jeff Ruby, he’s another that closed, but will face a cut back in distance. A positive for Zanesville is that his wins came over the dirt, including a Dec. 17 maiden score at 1 1/16 miles. He comes into the race off a work over the Keeneland strip and will look to be running at the end. With Battle At Sea and Telekinesis the only apparent speed, you have to wonder how much he can rally. Looking for a hot pace.

11. Arched Feather, 30-1 (Arch — Edward Frederick — 5: 1-0-0 — $41,679): His lifetime best Brisnet figure is a 79, and he has already run in stakes races with little success against lesser competition. The outside post certainly doesn’t help, though it could be of assistance to My Boy Jack to have a slower runner directly inside of him. Arched Feather has fired some morning bullets lately, but he’ll need to do much, much better in the afternoons to grab a piece of this. Another toss.

12. My Boy Jack, 2-1 (Creative Cause — Keith Desormeaux — 9: 2-3-2 — $525,145): There’s a lot going in this one’s favor, especially if the weather materializes. My Boy Jack ran up a golden rail but did so in a muddy Southwest Stakes earlier this year at Oaklawn Park. The Louisiana Derby proved to Desormeaux a fast track is no problem, either. The trainer will look for a more gradual move forward than the all-in, outside jolt at Fair Grounds. Win, and it’s on to Churchill Downs. His late-running style should help overcome the position here. The one to beat.

Summary: My Boy Jack’s the type that shouldn’t be bothered by the outside post position. That said, if this race runs over a fast track, he’ll have to deal with a proven tactical runner in Greyvitos and have to catch Telekinesis, who doesn’t appear as though he’ll have much to fend off on the early lead. Pony Up is another that will look to be closing and belongs on tickets.