Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Lecomte odds and analysis
By Christine Oser
The Jan. 13 Lecomte Stakes marks the first points race in Louisiana for the 2018 Kentucky Derby. An overflow field of 3-year-olds have lined up for the 1-mile, 70-yard race that carries Grade 3 status and a $200,000 purse.
Derby qualifying points will be awarded to the top four finishers on a 10-4-2-1 scale with Principe Guilherme, the highly regarded colt from the Steve Asmussen barn, and Wonder Gadot, a multiple stakes-winning filly for trainer Mark Casse, in the spotlight.
Here's a look at the field with the morning line:
1. Lone Sailor, 15-1 (Majestic Warrior – Tom Amoss/Miguel Mena – 5-1-1-1 – $123,637): GMB Racing has another one taking the Louisiana trail toward the Kentucky Derby. Lone Sailor looked good breaking his maiden by 11 lengths at Saratoga in the slop. He followed it up with a third in the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity and a head loss in the Street Sense Stakes. His latest start resulted in a fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Although he can’t seem to get there in graded stakes company, Lone Sailor has put in some speedy works at Fair Grounds. His most recent was a six-furlong work in 1:13 flat, preceded by four furlongs in :47.80 and five furlongs in :59.80. Amoss is also adding blinkers to his Derby hopeful. Will need to show improvement.
2. Snapper Sinclair, 20-1 (City Zip – Steve Asmussen/Adam Beschizza – 4-2-0-0 – $252,360): Snapper Sinclair hit headlines when the Breeders’ Cup placed him 16th in the order of preference for the Juvenile Turf, despite breaking his maiden by four lengths at Saratoga onturf and winning the Fasig-Tipton Turf Showcase Juvenile Stakes. He was in after two deflections, but faded to 12th in the race. His only dirt start was his debut race, where he finished sixth. Dirt is questionable.
3. Wonder Gadot, 6-1 (Medaglia d’Oro – Mark Casse/John Velazquez – 5-3-0-1 – $312,973): This filly has proven successful on turf, synthetic and dirt surfaces, and now she’s taking aim at the boys. She debuted in allowance company on Woodbine’s turf and drew off to win by four, ran third in the Grade 1 Natalma only beaten three-quarters of a length and switched to synthetic and won the Grade 3 Mazarine Stakes by six lengths. Her first dirt attempt was in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she finished sixth with a little traffic trouble, but then showed a liking for dirt when taking the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes by 3 3/4 lengths. Wonder Gadot will have to face some good-looking upcoming colts here, but stands a shot to get up there. She is also entered in the Silverbulletday Stakes for fillies.
A week out from both races, Wonder Gadot worked with stablemate and Silverbulletday entrant Heavenly Love at Fair Grounds. Both fillies clocked four furlongs in :49.40. Assistant trainer David Carroll said a decision on Wonder Gadot's race will be made closer to race day. Don’t count her out.
4. Analyze This Jet, 30-1 (Overanalyze – Terry Eoff/Sasha Risenhoover – 8-2-0-2 – $70,395): One thing this colt has going for him is being by 2017 leading first crop sire Overanalyze, whose 2-year-olds racked up more than $1.6 million on the track last year. It took six tries for Analyze This Jet to break his maiden. He then won the El Joven Stakes over Retama Park’s turf, but failed to respond back on dirt in the Clever Trevor Stakes, finishing seventh. The Lecomte field features some up and coming horses that look too tough to beat. Needs to step back, not up. Outclassed.
5. Kowboy Karma, 6-1 (Kodiak Kowboy – Larry Jones/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 5-2-2-0 – $110,400): Kowboy Karma looked impressive in his debut, winning by 12 1/2 lengths at Delaware Park. He followed that up with a win in the Strike Your Colors Stakes and a second in the Sapling Stakes. The Larry Jones homebred took a big step up in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, where he finished fourth behind Firenze Fire, eventual Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Good Magic and Enticed, who later won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. He was second in the James F. Lewis III Stakes last out. Although he was fourth beaten 3 3/4 lengths in the Champagne, he finished behind some of the top 2-year-olds of 2017. In this field, he needs to step up to grab some points. Time to break through in a graded stakes if he's good enough.
6. Believe in Royalty, 15-1 (Tapit – Larry Jones/Robby Albarado – 4-2-0-1 – $50,480): His pedigree is probably the best of the bunch, being by leading sire Tapit and out of 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can, which sent his yearling price tag up to $900,000. Believe in Royalty broke his maiden second time out and picked up a nice allowance optional claiming win at Laurel Park. He took aim at the Remington Springboard Mile but ran mid-pack to finish a non-threatening sixth. On New Year’s Eve he worked in :59.60, the second fastest of 75 five-furlong drills at Fair Grounds. Deserves a second chance.
7. Night Strike, 30-1 (Liaison – Bret Calhoun/Calvin Borel – 7-1-1-1 – $88,562): It took six tries for Night Strike to break his maiden, which he accomplished in the Don C. McNeill Stakes for Oklahoma-breds. He followed that effort up with a fourth place run in the Remington Springboard Mile, 12 ¾ lengths behind the winner Greyvitos after a slow start. May need an easier spot.
8. Zing Zang, 15-1 (Tapit – Steve Asmussen/Shaun Bridgmohan – 3-1-0-0 – $26,845): Zing Zang found his best stride at the end of the year, rallying to break his maiden in his third start. Whether he’s ready for this tough field or not is the question, but his maiden win came over the same track as the Lecomte and at the same distance, and got a solid speed figure in that one. Big step up for improving maiden winner.
9. Zeke, 15-1 (Gio Ponti – Michael Stidham/Joe Bravo – 2-2-0-0 – $46,800): Zeke hasn’t necessarily done anything wrong – he is perfect in two starts – but his experience is questionable. After winning his debut on dirt where he went gate to wire in a 4-horse field, he then switched to turf and rallied for the win after a troubled, wide trip. Both races were won by a head. Zeke logged his final major work Saturday, Jan. 6 at Fair Grounds, working five furlongs in 1:01.40. A big step up.
10. Instilled Regard, 4-1 (Arch – Jerry Hollendorfer/Javier Castellano – 4-1-2-1 – $108,000): A $1.05 million 2-year-old, this colt has gone up against the best in California. In his first race he was second to St Patrick’s Day, American Pharoah’s full brother, then third behind highly regarded maiden winners Mourinho and Peace. Third time was the charm, with a 4 1/2-length score at Santa Anita Park. He enters the Lecomte as Grade 1 placed from the Los Alamitos Futurity. He crossed the wire behind Bob Baffert trainees Solomini and McKinzie (who just won the Sham), but was bumped up to second when Solomini was disqualified to third. He’s always been in the money, but shipping away from the upcoming West Coast horses should give him a bigger shot. The one to beat, but still has to prove himself.
11. Ciaran, Scratched (Malibu Moon – Tom Morley/Martin Garcia – 2-1-0-0 – $19,200): Ciaran won his debut in maiden claiming company at Keeneland but showed no response when facing winners, finishing sixth beaten 16 lengths by runaway winner Principe Guilherme at Fair Grounds. With only two races for experience and the last one not looking so good, the Lecomte looks like deep waters.
For that reason, Morley stated Saturday, Jan. 6 that Ciaran would scratch from the LeComte and shoot for an allowance race at the same distance a week after the Derby prep. Scratched.
12. Principe Guilherme, 5-2 (Tapit – Steve Asmussen/Florent Geroux – 2-2-0-0 – $61,800): He hasn’t even competed in a stakes race yet, and this one's already considered one of the top Derby hopefuls. Three Chimneys Farm’s homebred is perfect in two starts, with a 6 1/4-length maiden score at Churchill Downs and an even more impressive 11 3/4-length allowance optional claiming win at Fair Grounds. Principe Guilherme has shown nothing but talent so far, and a Derby stakes prep will show if he’s the real deal or not. All eyes on him.
13. Prince Lucky, 8-1 (Corinthian – Larry Jones/Julien Leparoux – 4-3-0-1 – $132,690): Another Delaware debut winner for Jones, Prince Lucky finished third in the First State Dash Stakes before coming back to a nice allowance optional claiming win at Laurel Park. He most recently picked up a stakes win in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes. The question is whether he can stretch out and win against open stakes competition. The Nursery was his longest distance so far at seven furlongs, and his competition in the northeast was not that of the Derby trail. He’ll also be racing without a whip. Step up in company and tough post.
14. Ebben, 20-1 (Trappe Shot – Steve Margolis/Corey Lanerie – 6-2-0-1 – $69,141): Ebben enters off a Churchill Downs allowance optional claiming win, but hasn’t fared too well in stakes company. At age 2, he finished sixth in the Ellis Park Juvenile Stakes, fourth in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes and sixth in the Street Sense Stakes. At 3, the competition isn't getting easier. His latest work came Jan. 6 at Fair Grounds, where he drilled a half-mile in :48.80. Improving but has yet to break through in stakes company and tough post.
15. Trigger Warning, 20-1 (Candy Ride – Joe Lejzerowicz/Sophie Doyle – 4-1-0-1 – $11,558): He’ll have to wait for a deflection before getting in, but even then the odds are stacked against him. Trigger Warning’s lone win came in maiden optional claiming company at Turf Paradise, and his next-best finish was third in the Lost in the Fog Juvenile Stakes at the same track. The Derby trail would be a lot to take on.
With the scratch of Ciaran, Trigger Warning now has the option to run. Up against it if he races.