Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Jeff Ruby Steaks odds, analysis

The Grade 3, $200,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks — formerly known as the Spiral — won’t bring the “A” team Saturday to Turfway Park, but it has attracted many of the nation’s top barns to Florence, Ky. A full, well-matched field is set for the 1 1/8-mile 2018 Kentucky Derby prep carded as Race 10, at 6 p.m. ET.

Newly renamed this year, the race will pay out Derby qualifying points on a 20-8-4-2 scale. While that’s a lower total than in the past, an earlier spot on the calendar should allow spacing for the winner to try another prep with the final day of points races on April 14.

Here’s a look at Jeff Ruby Steaks field with morning line odds. An asterisk represents horses nominated early to the Triple Crown series.

1. Sky Promise, 12-1 (Sky Mesa — Kenny McPeek — Jack Gilligan — 10: 1-2-3 — $82,296): He was a late-running second to Magicalmesiter in Turfway’s local Jeff Ruby prep, the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, and did so while closing from 11th in a 12-horse field. Sky Promise should enjoy the extra 1/16 of a mile but will need the right trip. Question is, does he have the speed to contend against a classier bunch? One victory in 10 starts suggests no. Doesn’t seem to fit here.

2. Cash Call Kitten, 12-1 (Kitten’s Joy — Mike Maker — Tyler Gaffalione — 2: 2-0-0 — $48,168): You can never count out the Ken and Sarah Ramsey-Maker duo in this race, which Maker has won back-to-back and five times overall. This year’s contender is lightly raced, 2-for-2 with a minor stakes win on the Gulfstream Park turf. There was much to like in his last start, which measured just 7 1/2 furlongs, but a one-length victory came after he settled nicely off the pace and responded well. A live longshot, and a potential win pick.

3. Archaggelos, 6-1 (Temple City — Michael Dickinson — Rafael Hernandez — 4: 2-1-0 — $93,684): A half brother to Big Brown, Woodbine’s Grade 3 Grey Stakes winner is a previous winner on synthetic and shipped in from Dickinson’s Tapeta Farm in Maryland for this race. He posted a work over the Turfway track last Saturday as well. After the Grey Stakes victory, which came from off the pace, he faced a different batch of horses Dec. 2 and ran fourth in the 1 1/16-mile Display Stakes, his last out. Tough to pick going longer off the layoff.

4. *Pony Up, 6-1 (Aikenite — Todd Pletcher — 5: 1-3-0 — Albin Jimenez — $76,180): Fifth last out in the Grade 2 Holy Bull while returning to dirt, he was notably a neck away from beating Flameaway in a minor turf stakes two starts back. Always closing, he should perform better at this level and looms as another late-closing threat. In four starts other than the Holy Bull, the chestnut hasn’t finished worse than second, though he’s only visited the winner’s circle once, and not since Oct. 22. A nice fit in this field.

5. *Magicalmeister, 12-1 (Bodemeister — James Chapman — John McKee — 3: 2-0-1 — $59,010): The John Battaglia Memorial winner struck at 39-1. You won’t get that price again Saturday. Flying under the radar, the win in his third start was the product of a pace stalking effort going a mile. He showed plenty of run into the six path while taking the lead at the eighth pole. Still, Sky Promise was flying faster late and also had to run wide. Added distance doesn’t help.

6. Mugaritz, 6-1 (Dialed In — Jonathan Wong — 6: 2-1-0 — Nik Juarez — $51,485): The West Coast shipper has done the bulk of his runner at Golden Gate Fields, which offers a surface similar to Turfway. Two starts back, he was the runner-up in a stakes but faded late in his next out, the El Camino Real Derby, finishing fourth after holding the lead in the stretch. That race also ran at 1 1/8 miles, however, and should he better relax here, he could factor. One to consider for exotics.

7. *Hazit, 5-1 (War Front — Todd Pletcher — 4: 1-1-0 — Drayden Van Dyke — $89,000): Fifth in the Grade 1 Champagne last fall, then eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he ran second by just a length back in February, putting in a respectable performance to end the layoff. With this his second race back, the colt is eligible to improve and posted a bullet work last Friday at Pletcher’s Florida training base, Palm Beach Downs. He could be the one to catch having displayed early speed in the past. Belongs on your tickets.

8. Blended Citizen, 6-1 (Proud Citizen — Doug O’Neill — 7: 1-0-2 — $54,054): Third in the El Camino Real Derby, he finished well just 1 3/4 lengths back at the wire and won’t have to face either of those horses who beat him on the West Coast. The performance was a distinct step up from when he tried a stakes race on dirt. Still, four starts back, O’Neill had this one in for a tag. Could just be getting good, but is a consideration to toss.

9. *Dreamer’s Point, 15-1 (Shackleford — Ian Wilkes — Kyle Frey — 5: 1-1-2 — $50,500): The gelding will go in stakes competition for the first time here. He broke his maiden Sept. 3 and hasn’t won since, but in his past performances are some top 3-year-olds, including Grade 2 Fountain of Youth winner Promises Fulfilled and Magnum Moon, the unbeaten Pletcher colt starring in Saturday’s Grade 2 Rebel. That said, he hasn’t posed a threat yet while facing winners. Doesn’t appear to be a contender.

10. Zanesville, 12-1 (Tiznow — Tom Amoss — 5: 2-1-0 — Malcolm Franklin — $58,896): Since missing the board to open his career in two Kentucky starts, a winter in Louisiana has treated the colt well. He won races at both Fair Grounds and Delta Downs, where he beat winners in allowance company last out going 1 1/16 miles. The victory came by 1 1/2 lengths after he press the early pace. Still, other recent Of the 12-1 morning line shots, he’s not the strongest.

11. *Ride A Comet, 5-1 (Candy Ride — Mark Casse — Gabriel Saez — 5: 2-0-0 — $49,689): The $375,000 purchase has run closer to his sale price lately, winning his last two starts after beginning 0-for-3. While without a start since Jan. 6, his works have been sharp, and last out, Sky Promise was among those beaten going a mile on the Fair Grounds turf. Also a winner on dirt, he shouldn’t mind the surface, but he’s by no means a towering favorite here. Looks like the one to beat.

12. Arawak, 15-1 (Uncle Mo — Wesley Ward — Julio Garcia — 8: 2-0-2 — $108,406): Third as the John Battaglia Memorial favorite, he has been racing since last May and has put in solid efforts in both his synthetic starts. But previous off-the-board finishes in graded stakes company indicate he may just not be up to this level, even as a $200,000 yearling. In a race lacking apparent willing front-runners, though, he could gain an advantage by sitting near the pace. Might steal it, but there are better contenders.

Summary: What’s not to like about Cash Call Kitten? He’s only won, sports the connections to beat and still sits at 12-1 on the morning line. You won’t likely get that on race day, but he appears a solid bet with Ride A Comet and Archaggelos both returning from layoffs. If not Cash Call Kitten, Hazit could take this race on the front end.