Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Holy Bull Stakes odds and analysis

The 2018 Kentucky Derby trail hits a higher gear Saturday when a well-matched bunch of 3-year-olds go in Gulfstream Park’s Grade 2, $350,000 Holy Bull Stakes, with as many as four runners from Dale Romans’ barn set to challenge Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner Enticed in his seasonal debut.

Post time is to 5:49pm ET, as part of the new Fox Sports 2 “Saturday at the Races” programming block between 4 and 6:30 p.m. Here’s a look at the field with early odds by Horse Racing Nation for what should be one of the weekend’s top betting races:

1. Enticed, 5-2 (Medaglia d’Oro — Kiaran McLaughlin — Joel Rosario — 3: 2-0-1 — $213,880) He won the Kentucky Jockey Club by the bob of a head over Tiz Mischief, both horses hitting the front with strong middle moves that continued down a long stretch. Two starts back, the Godolphin charge finished third behind Firenze Fire and Good Magic in the Grade 1 Champagne. Enticed’s works aren’t often fast, but he’s consistent. This race could come down to whether he or Tiz Mischief improved more with a freshening. One of the favorites looking to back up a stakes win.

2. Free Drop Billy, 6-1 (Union Rags — Dale Romans — Luis Saez — 5: 2-2-0 — $428,020) The Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity winner didn’t fire next time out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but if he can reclaim his earlier 2-year-old form, he should factor in this one. Running style is similar to the two favorites, though Free Drop Billy came from a bit farther back in his big score and was at the rear early in the seven-furlong, Grade 1 Hopeful. Will need room to run in a sizable field.

3. Master Manipulator, 10-1 (Tale of the Cat — Eric Guillot — Jose Ortiz — 5: 1-1-0 — $39,929) He won at this distance and on this track Jan. 3 while leading every step of the way in a maiden special weight event. That marked a change of tactics, as in his four previous starts, including the Chamapgne, Master Manipulator wasn’t near the early lead. This could be the field’s biggest wild card. If he’s sent again, can he hold on? Could be coming into his own at the right time.

4. Audible, 8-1 (Into Mischief — Todd Pletcher — Javier Castellano — 3: 2-0-1 — $79,400) When a Dec. 6 allowance event at Aqueduct moved from turf to fast dirt, this one emerged a 9 3/4-length winner. He flattened a bit late, but it’s not as if he needed to use up more. We don’t know much about how the $500,000 colt will fare in here, but with Pletcher his trainer and two wins at a mile, he can’t be ignored. Taking a step up here.

5. Bandito, 25-1 (Creative Cause — Dale Romans — Edgar Zayas — 3: 1-0-0 — $41,530) The Calumet Farm homebred will look to rebound from a last-place finish in the Grade 2 Remsen after setting the early pace and folding early. Two starts back, he won going 1 1/8 miles while stalking the pace. But in his debut, he was fifth. Inconsistent runner not the best from his barn.

(SCRATCHING) 6. Hollywood Star, 12-1 (Malibu Moon — Dale Romans — Irad Ortiz — 4: 1-2-0 — $116,520) He’s coming off a bullet workout last Saturday over the surface but will opt to run another next out, with Romans telling TVG that Hollywood Star will start instead in the Feb. 10 Sam F. Davis. Season debut delayed a week.

7. Tiz Mischief, 3-1 (Into Mischief — Dale Romans — Robby Albarado — 4: 1-2-0 — $88,000) A horse couldn’t do much better in the mornings than this one. The colt has consistently ranked among the fastest workers at Gulfstream Park regardless of age or experience. He’s primed for this spot and is by a Tiznow mare, so distance should be welcomed. He topped a nice field to break his maiden at third asking and was a head bob away from graded stakes winner in the Kentucky Jockey Club. The one to beat if he builds off his works.

8. Pony Up, 10-1 (Aikenite — Todd Pletcher — John Velazquez — 4: 1-3-0 — $66,100) Running in turf stakes up to this point, he has worked at Palm Beach Downs on the dirt, showing Pletcher it’s worth a try on the Derby trail. He was only beaten by a neck in the Jan. 6 Kitten’s Joy going up against multiple stakes winner Flameaway and came from almost 10 lengths off the lead. Wants distance. But what about dirt?

9. Tip Sheet, 30-1 (Brethren — Stanley Gold — Emisael Jaramillo — 8: 2-1-2 — $124,040) The most experienced runner in this field was a well-beaten third behind Noble Indy and Mississippi in a salty Jan. 11 allowance event at Gulfstream going this same distance. The former claimer would be a shocking winner here. Doesn’t appear to fit with this bunch.

10. Aequor, 15-1 (Flatter — Gustavo Delgado — Jose Lezcano — 4: 1-1-2 — $51,575) This one will add some early pace to the field off a runner-up finish in the six-furlong Limehouse Stakes Jan. 6 at Gulfstream. He hasn’t missed the board in four starts around one turn. His effort late in the Limehouse suggests he won’t mind a route of ground. Purchased for $140,000, there could be some class about him. A mystery stretching out.

(SCRATCHING) 11. Mississippi, 20-1 (Pioneerof the Nile — Mark Casse — Julien Leparoux — 3: 1-1-0 — $48,490) He comes out of the aforementioned allowance a runner-up to well-regarded Noble Indy. Rather than go from the outside post here, Casse told us, the colt will go in a Sunday allowance at Gulfstream. It's not an easy spot by any means, also including the well-regarded Navistar and Cove Blue. Will run Sunday instead.

Summary: This is a tough one to handicap, given it's always an unknown how a horse will make the transition from juvenile to sophomore. But Tiz Mischief has drawn rave reviews from his trainer for his work in the mornings, pointing to this spot all along. Enticed should run his race, while it speaks volumes that of all Todd Pletcher's horses available, he selected Audible as his first choice to run here.