Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Florida Derby odds and analysis
Three contenders in particular will draw most attention in a final prep that awards Derby qualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the Top 4 finishers.
Coming out of his Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes victory, Promises Fulfilled has already cemented his trip to Churchill Downs. Rounding out the Florida Derby’s “Big 3” are Audible and Catholic Boy, both horses who need to hit the board for connections to realize their own Derby dreams.
The Florida Derby has produced three of the last five Kentucky Derby winners in Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017).
Here’s a look at the field with morning line odds:
1. Strike Power, 4-1 (Speightstown — Mark Hennig — 3: 2-1-0 — $224,760 — 20): This horse debuted with a fast sprint race, followed it up with a sprinting stakes win, and then proved he’s more than one dimensional by running second to Promises Fulfilled in the Fountain of Youth. Hennig expects even better in Strike Power’s second route race, though it’s tough to determine the colt’s preferred running style. Obviously, he has natural speed, and the last race proved he can carry it. Expect to see him near the front early. Still an unknown, but worth including on tickets.
2. Millionaire Runner, 50-1 (Warrior’s Reward — Jamie Mejia — 10: 1-1-0 — $30,380 — 0) Since running fourth last out at 72-1, equaling his best finish in his last six starts, this one shows no recorded works. His maiden victory came in claiming company at Parx Racing. Purchased for $1,000, he’s proven a bargain in that respect. His breeders, Brandywine Farm, were also responsible for Gunnevera. Doesn’t fit here.
3. Tip Sheet, 30-1 (Brethren — Stanley Gold — 10: 2-1-3 — $133,080 — 0): He beat rival Millionaire Runner by a half length last out with short-priced Todd Pletcher trainees 1-2 ahead. But while sixth in the Holy Bull, he didn’t finish ahead of any of the race’s big names. Three back, he was part of a Noble Indy-Mississippi allowance clash we'll get to later, more than six lengths behind their duel on the front end. It would take a pace collapse to get Tip Sheet involved here, and that doesn’t seem likely to happen. A toss.
4. Promises Fulfilled, 3-1 (Shackleford — Dale Romans — 4: 3-0-1 — $327,280 — 52): Romans has habitually said since Promises Fulfilled’s front-running Fountain of Youth score that this colt should be undefeated. He fought the rider all the way in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November, popped a splint in the process and still ran third in a key race. But it’s worth noting the trip was ideal last out, with this one allowed to set a nice, easy pace of a half mile in 48.39 seconds before pulling away in the stretch. The one to beat should want the early lead.
5. Storm Runner, 20-1 (Get Stormy — Dale Romans — 7: 2-2-1 — $107,340 — 0): He looked like a live longshot coming out of the allowance score and ran like one in the Fountain of Youth, at least for about a half mile. Stablemate Promises Fulfilled squeezed him along the rail up the back stretch, and Storm Runner dropped from there. His past performances show a pattern of a win, followed by an off-the-board effort dating back to November. He’ll also enter off a bullet work. It’s unlikely a horse that inconsistent will factor here, though it would make for a heck of a story given the $5,000 purchase price. The final 1/16 of a mile could be trouble.
6. Catholic Boy, 7-2 (More Than Ready — Jonathan Thomas — 5: 3-1-0 — $354,000 — 14): Campaigned in part by Robert LaPenta, who’s had prominent Derby contenders before, this colt announced himself on the trail with a commanding win in the Grade 2 Remsen in December. Short on works, he then ran a close second to Flameaway in his 3-year-old debut, and that one looked respectable coming back in the Tampa Bay Derby. Catholic Boy should be more fit for this race. Really, he has to be to move on to Churchill Downs. A major contender coming from mid-pack.
7. Hofburg, 20-1 (Tapit — Bill Mott — 2: 1-0-0 — $35,950 — 0): Mott said “it’s a big reach” moving this one up from his maiden win to Grade 1 company. But it’s not often the Hall of Famer simply takes a shot. Hofburg, a Juddmonte Farms homebred, scored going two turns in his second race, and was stuck with a wide trip. Under a hand ride in the stretch, he re-engaged when runner-up Just Whistle came running on, another promising sign. Hofburg’s final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:45.54. Promises Fulfilled won the Fountain of Youth three races later in 1:44.17. Not bad. Looks like a live longshot.
8. Audible, 9-5 (Into Mischief — Todd Pletcher — 4: 3-0-1 — $287,720 — 10): He moved near the top of Derby lists as a 5 1/2-length winner of the Grade 2 Holy Bull, with Pletcher’s plan all along to train up to this race. Was it just a freak performance last time, or can this colt continue to progress? That’s the big question for a New York-bred, as he hadn’t beaten much before leaving his home state for Gulfstream Park. Audible is a typical pace-pressing type but not the only contender in this field looking for that trip. Somewhat concerning: Audible’s final workout, in which he was beaten to the wire by Vino Rosso. Fits well in the Big 3.
9. Mississippi, 12-1 (Pioneerof the Nile — Mark Casse — 4: 1-0-2 — $57,730 — 0): Noble Indy’s Louisiana Derby victory certainly flattered this one. Two starts back, Mississippi finished just 3/4 of a length back of that rival, though Noble Indy was under a much easier ride. In his last start, this colt came within a neck of topping Storm Runner in another 1 1/16-mile allowance test. This will be the “wise guy” horse, as he’s a $700,000 purchase begging to finally break through. The Florida Derby's just a tough spot for it to happen. Another pace presser with a lot asked here.
Summary: We can all agree that Promises Fulfilled won’t get the same easy trip as last time with Audible and Mississippi added to the mix here. If he wins it, the colt could be truly special. Young trainer Jonathan Thomas has planned a simple campaign for Catholic Boy, who’s working well and will be cranked for the first time this year. I like him to win this race second off the layoff with Audible looking a step slow in the mornings. Should Strike Power continue to progress, he’ll be right there. Hofburg’s entry is a sign of confidence from Mott, making him the longshot to include on your tickets. Also, a bummer for Mississippi's connections to be stuck on the far outside. He scratched from the Holy Bull for the same reason.