Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Blue Grass Stakes odds, analysis
Reigning 2-year-old champion Good Magic meets impressive last-out stakes winner Quip in Saturday’s Grade 2, $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, which hosts one of the weekend’s three major 2018 Kentucky Derby preps.
Each of the Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial offer qualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the Top 4 finishers. Run first or second, and it’s off to Churchill Downs. A handful of other Blue Grass contenders with points already earned could realize Kentucky Derby dreams by simply running third or fourth.
Post time at the Lexington, Ky., track is set for 6:23 p.m. ET. And note there's a decent chance of rain. Here’s a look at the Blue Grass Stakes field with morning line odds:
1. Zing Zang, 30-1 (Tapit — Steve Asmussen/Shaun Bridgmohan — 6: 1-0-0 — $53,445): The longer the race, the better the chance for this runner, a plodding type who would benefit most from a suicidal pace. It doesn’t appear he’ll get it here, but the stretch from 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 2 Rebel to 1 1/8 at Keeneland can't hurt. Zing Zang's yet to register a 90 Brisnet Speed Rating, however, far off the top contenders here. Nine furlongs isn’t long enough.
2. Sporting Chance, 10-1 (Tiznow — D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Saez — 5: 2-1-1 — $346,140): Thought to be one of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes’ win contenders, he simply didn’t fire last time at Oaklawn. Now it’s off to Keeneland to dodge many of those same runners in the Arkansas Derby. So while that’s a strike against Sporting Chance, once thing working for him is the weather. His Grade 1 Hopeful win and third-place Grade 3 Southwest Stakes run both came over off tracks. Fine with the mud and looking to rebound.
3. California Night, 30-1 (Midnight Lute — Mike Maker/Tyler Gaffalione — 3: 2-0-0 — $80,700): He has won on tracks rated both good and fast, and at distances of 6 1/2 furlongs and a mile. For a lightly raced colt, the resume isn’t too bad. He set the pace in both those victories and will likely play a part in the Blue Grass’ early going. His only stakes start came over a muddy track in a race where he didn’t find the early lead. So far, he seems like a one-dimensional speed type. Will be sent early.
4. Kanthaka, 10-1 (Jimmy Creed — Jerry Hollendorfer/Julien Leparoux — 4: 2-0-1 — $201,440): Winner of the Grade 2 San Vicente around one turn, then a distant third in the Grade 2 San Felipe by Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie, just about any spot outside of California would be considered class relief for this West Point Thoroughbreds charge. The knock against Kanthaka is, even in his stakes win, he received the perfect setup. That doesn’t mean he won’t like two turns, but his figures returned to their normal levels when routing in the San Felipe. Easy to play against here.
5. Quip, 6-1 (Distorted Humor — Rodolphe Brisset/Florent Geroux — 4: 3-0-0 — $282,800): Already qualified for the Kentucky Derby by way of his Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby win, this colt appears to have the running style suited for a victory in the Blue Grass. He’s never needed the lead, but would take it if the pace winds up slow, with his only defeat coming when compromised by an early incident in last fall’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. His 98 Brisnet Speed Rating last out is impressive right off the layoff, same as Good Magic in his 3-year-old debut. A major contender.
6. Marconi, 15-1 (Tapit — Todd Pletcher/Ryan Moore — 4: 1-1-1 — $84,520): The $2 million Coolmore purchase ran fifth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth last out though managed a 95 Beyer Speed Rating, a career-best. This horse looks suited to run as long as they'll write the races. He's quirky from the gate, often breaking slow, and would need to overcome that if he's to do more than pass tiring horses late. Needs to sharpen up.
7. Blended Citizen, 15-1 (Proud Citizen — Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey — 8: 2-0-2 — $166,854): He went from claimer to Derby trail winner, stepping up in Turfway’s Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. Now, a finish on the board could get him to Churchill Downs. His last two starts, both on synthetic, have marked progression, with both registering 100 Brisnet Speed Ratings. But in three starts to open his career on dirt, he never finished better than fifth. The surface remains a big question.
8. Gotta Go, 30-1 (Shanghai Bobby — Ian Wilkes/Chris Landeros — 6: 2-1-0 — $126,110): Since winning consecutive races as a juvenile, this one hasn’t necessarily regressed, continuing to post decent figures, but has yet to find his preferred distance and trip. Sharpened up with a runner-up in the seven-furlong Swale Stakes to open the year, he was a flat sixth in the Fountain of Youth. You’ll find him in the middle of the pack in the Blue Grass. It would take a new late kick to contend. Doesn’t appear to be a threat.
9. Tiz Mischief, 30-1 (Into Mischief — Dale Romans/Corey Lanerie — 6: 1-2-1 — $132,100): After third to open his campaign in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, he missed the board in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby with little excuse to offer. We know this one can run, as he was a close second to multiple stakes winner Enticed in a Derby trail race at age 2. But so far, Tiz Mischief has put forth his best efforts in the morning. He’ll have to translate that to the afternoons to contend here. Still, his best speed figures aren’t enough here.
10. Free Drop Billy, 5-1 (Union Rags — Dale Romans/Irad Ortiz Jr. — 7: 2-3-1 — $525,220): He’s taking a road traveled before by the Romans barn, most recently with Brody’s Cause in 2016, to bring a Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity winner back in the Blue Grass. This one offers a similar running style to boot. He likes the surface and has been a consistent board hitter on the trail. It also appears he’ll get a decent setup to do some late running. That said, he ran third in the Grade 3 Gotham with connections looking for a weaker spot last out. Will need to step up to contend.
11. Good Magic, 2-1 (Curlin — Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz — 4: 1-2-1 — $1,255,000): With just two preps planned before the Kentucky Derby, the Blue Grass has taken on higher importance for the reigning champ, who was third in his comeback race, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Good Magic is certainly eligible to improve second off a layoff, and though he leveled out at Gulfstream, the winner, Promises Fulfilled, got a dream trip and pace scenario. Combine all that, and Good Magic looks like the one to beat. Should go as the favorite.
12. Flameaway, 6-1 (Scat Daddy — Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano — 8: 5-1-0 — $504,834): This guy seems to answer the bell every time he’s asked, coming back from a win in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis to run well late for second in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. He’s another in this race who only needs to hit the board to move on to the Kentucky Derby, though it’s mildly concerning that his best performances have come against much weaker fields than this one. Stretching to nine furlongs, he could factor in the pace. One to have on your tickets.
13. Machismo, 20-1 (More Than Ready — Anthony Quartarolo/Jacob Radosevich — 5: 1-0-1 — $53,574): After opening his career with trainer Todd Pletcher, he ran into eventual Grade 2 Rebel Stakes winner Magnum Moon in his first start for Quartarolo. Next out, though, Machismo broke his maiden, then hopped right into the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth for Loooch Racing, finishing fourth. Never afraid to take a shot, owner Ron Paolucci’s back and appears to have a live longshot. Big-priced contender will run late.
14. Arawak, 30-1 (Uncle Mo — Doug O’Neill — 9: 2-0-3 — $127,206): After a barn change from Wesley Ward to O’Neill, this one enters off a third-place effort to Blended Citizen in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. Unlike the winner, he has run on dirt, but with mixed results since breaking his maiden on May 26 of last year. It helps that O’Neill waited until seeing Arawak work at Keeneland to add him to the mix here. He adds blinkers and, per O'Neill assistant Jack Sisterson, will be looking for the early lead. Appears out-classed.
AE. Determinant (Tapit — Mark Casse — 3: 1-0-0 — $29,660): The Tapit colt broke his maiden at third asking last out. And while that race came on turf, it measured 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park. Casse found positive results switching Flameaway from grass to the main track earlier on the Derby trail, winning the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis. This is a different level, however, and his top Brisnet Speed Rating of 84 doesn’t make this one a win contender. Looks like a safe toss.
Summary: This is put up/shut up time for Good Magic, who has lived off his reputation as Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner long enough. Time to add to the resume, or he may miss the Kentucky Derby. A 98 Brisnet rating even in defeat shows he can jump up here in what’s definitely not the strongest prep of the weekend. Quip offers some nice competition, and Free Drop Billy is certainly one to consider on this surface. This appears to be a race where you can play the champ on top and expect a decent price on any other runner in a nice betting race.