Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: Arkansas Derby odds, analysis

Oaklawn Park's Grade 1 Arkansas Derby offers a $1 million purse, but on this occasion the 180 qualifying points may be more coveted than the money as six horses have one last chance to qualify for the 2018 Kentucky Derby 2018. It is likely that this year, the requisite point total to make the Derby field will be the highest ever. A finish in the Top 4 [100-40-20-10] would help several horses earn a trip to Churchill Downs.

In previous years, Solomini's 34 points entering Saturday's race would have him comfortably qualified, but maybe not in 2018. A fourth-place finish or better would eliminate any doubt. Combatant and Dream Baby Dream need at third-place or better result. Quip and Magnum Moon are already in the field with their 50 points. The rest of the Arkansas Derby runners are going to have to win or place to make the Derby.

Post time for the Arkansas Derby is scheduled for 7:18 pm ET. Here is a look at the field of nine with official morning line odds from Oaklawn Park.

Beautiful Shot [ML 30-1 – (0) – Trappe Shot – Desormeaux/Eramia – 4: 2-0-1 - $92,580] His only start in 2018 was a distant eighth-place finish in Aqueduct's Grade 3 Gotham. As a 2-year-old he beat Mourinho in the Speakeasy at Santa Anita after having topped Nero in his maiden victory. He has been training in California, so this means another cross-country trip to take on a good field in a Grade 1 stakes. Tough task at hand.

Machismo [ML 20-1 – (5, 34^th) – More Than Ready – Quartarolo/Spieth – 6: 1-0-1 - $55,796] Always expect the unexpected from Loooch Racing Stable, so I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that Machismo is returning after finishing a distant 12th-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes last weekend. To his credit he did run fourth in the Fountain of Youth after an 11-length maiden victory. Both of those races were at Gulfstream. Back in a week after a poor Blue Grass run.

Tenfold [ML 10-1 – (0) – Curlin – Asmussen/V. Espinoza – 2: 2-0-0 - $94,200] Two starts and two wins for this Winchell Thoroughbreds runner, both coming in two-turn races at Oaklawn as a 3-year-old. The maiden victory was wire-to-wire, but he sat off the pace in his allowance win. He is clearly a talented horse, but he faces a strong Grade 1 field. He gets the services of Hall of Fame jockey Victor Espinoza. Talented, but being asked for a lot.
 

Dream Baby Dream [ML 15-1 – (20, 27^th) – Into Mischief – Asmussen/Contreras – 8: 1-1-4 - $247,100] This Steve Asmussen runner has 20 Derby points, but only one career victory. This son of Into Mischief has finished in the top three in his last six starts. Most recently, he made a big closing move to finish second in the Sunland Derby behind Runaway Ghost. There is probably enough pace in this race to set up his late move. Will be running late.

Solomini [ML 2-1 – (34, 19^th) – Curlin – Baffert/Prat – 5: 1-3-1 - $652,000] The time has come for Solomini to put it all together. He has always known how to be competitive on the racetrack, but he has consistently found ways to get in trouble, too. The son of Curlin needs to change leads down the stretch and find a clean trip as that would help his connections feel that he can handle the 20-horse Derby field. This is a small, but quality group, and Solomini will need his best career effort to win. Expect him to sit a stalking trip. Can he put it all together?

Magnum Moon [ML 8-5 – (50, 12^th) – Malibu Moon – Pletcher/L. Saez – 3: 3-0-0 - $557,800] The past five Kentucky Derby winners have entered that race with perfect records as 3-year-olds. Magnum Moon, who is one of Todd Pletcher’s four Derby qualifiers, has never lost a race in three starts that all came in 2018. His breakthrough victory came in the Rebel when he sat a stalking trip and drew off impressively from Solomini and Combatant. I expect Pletcher to have him in top form for this Oaklawn Park signature race that he has already won four times. The favorite and most likely winner.

Plainsman [ML 30-1 – (0) – Flatter – Van Meter/McMahon – 5: 1-1-1 - $73,295] One career win for this Oaklawn-based son of Flatter that came in January. He did beat Dream Baby Dream in an allowance race before showing some speed in his most recent third place allowance finish. Late addition to the field is a longshot.

Quip [ML 9-2 – (50, 14^th) – Distorted Humor – Brisset/Geroux – 4: 3-0-0 - $282,800] Quip’s only loss came in the 2017 Kentucky Jockey Club, a key race on the Derby trail. In the Tampa Bay Derby, he pressed the pace and then battled and defeated the gritty Flameaway down the stretch. That effort was flattered when Flameaway came back and again was right in the finish in the Blue Grass. Quip has shown himself to be a winner, and I like that. He’s already Derby qualified, so he doesn’t have to be at a 100% in here. He should be forwardly placed. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset scratched out of the Blue Grass opting for this race instead. The horse knows how to win.

Combatant [ML 6-1 – (22, 24^th) – Scat Daddy – Asmussen/Santana Jr. – 6: 1-3-1 - $338,550] Combatant has never run a bad race in his career with three second-place finishes in the Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Southwest. Most recently, his usual closing move got him to third in the Rebel. Another one of the solid finishes in the top three will be enough to get him in the Run for the Roses. You have to admire his consistency, but at the same time question his ability to win. This is clearly the toughest field that he has ever faced. Likely to gather more points.

Summary: Magnum Moon is my pick to win. I’ll use him on top in exactas with the Asmussen duo of Dream Baby Dream and Tenfold looking for better payouts, even though Quip and Solomini will be favored to finish second.