Kentucky Derby points scenarios explained entering final preps

The 2018 Kentucky Derby trail will conclude Saturday as the final two races in the 35-race series – the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park and $200,000 Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland – help finalize the preference list for the May 5 race. 

The 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby is the lone-remaining Championship Series race worth 100 points to the winner and 40 points to the runner-up, which will be crucial to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. In addition to first two finishing positions, the Arkansas Derby’s third and fourth-place finishers will receive 20 and 10 points respectively.

The 1 1/16-mile Lexington offers points to the Top 4 finishers on a scale of 20-8-4-2.

Only 16 horses on the official leaderboard have clinched spots in the Kentucky Derby starting gate (the Top 15 point-earners and Gronkowski, who earned an invitation by winning the inaugural European Road to the Kentucky Derby series).

That means the connections of Lone Sailor (42 points and $273,347 in non-restricted stakes earnings which serve as a tie-breaker), Hofburg (40 points, $192,000), Firenze Fire (39) and Solomini (34) will be closely monitoring the results of Saturday’s races.

In the first five years of the Kentucky Derby point system, the last horse to get a spot in the Derby starting gate had between 10 and 32 points: 10 (2013), 20 (2014), 22 (2015), 32 (2016) and 30 (2017). 

This year, it’s mathematically possible that 42 points might not be enough to join the field.

Arkansas Derby entrants Magnum Moon (50 points) and Quip (50) already have sufficient points. Solomini (34) can secure a berth with a Top 4 finish, while Combatant (22) and Dream Baby Dream (20) can be in the mix with a Top 3 showing.

Machismo (5), Beautiful Shot (0), Plainsman (0) and Tenfold (0) will qualify with a win and join the discussion with a runner-up effort.

Meanwhile, My Boy Jack (32) needs a Top 2 finish in the Lexington to vie for position within the Top 19 point-earners. All other Lexington starters would need defections to join the Kentucky Derby lineup if they won.

The Arkansas Derby will go as Race 11 at Oaklawn Park on Saturday with a post time of 7:18 p.m. ET. The Lexington is Keeneland’s Race 9 at 5:34 p.m. ET.

For a detailed look at points scenarios, see the PDF below provided by Churchill Downs with the option to go full screen at the bottom right of the window.