Final Kentucky Derby 2018 handicapping analysis, bets

There is only one Kentucky Derby each year, of course, and this is the only race in our country with a 20-horse field. That amount of interests provides unique opportunities for American bettors. Payoffs in all exotics, both vertical and horizontal, are larger than usual.

Playing the horizontal wagers – such as daily doubles and Pick 3, 4, and 5s – means that you must identify the horse or horses that have a chance to win the Derby. In the vertical bets – exactas, trifectas and superfectas – you have the opportunity to use horses underneath.

The runners that we choose in the win position can be of fair value, an underlay, or an overlay in comparison to the morning line, or to what you consider to be the chance that he will win the race. In the long run, a bettor wants to avoid underlays and to take advantage of overlays.

The sizable Derby field exaggerates the odds of horses like no other race in America. Thus, here is an analysis of Saturday's big race with an eye on which horses should be used to win in the horizontal bets or on the top and/or underneath in the vertical wagers.

 Firenze Fire [ML: 50-1 – Poseidon’s Warrior – Ja. Servis/P. Lopez – 9: 4-1-0 - $669,100] When the bell rings and the betting is closed on Saturday, Firenze Fire is likely to be the longest price on the board. He’s won a lot of money in his career, but he has no chance in the Derby. Don't bet this longshot.
 

Free Drop Billy [ML: 30-1 – Union Rags – Romans/Albarado – 8: 2-3-2 - $625,220] Trouble keeps on finding Free Drop Billy in his races this year. He has just not improved enough as a 3-year-old, while many others have gotten much better. It’s likely that he will pass tired horses for a mid-pack finish. Won’t be part of any wagers.

Promises Fulfilled [ML: 30-1 – Shackleford – Romans/Lanerie – 5: 3-0-1 - $337,280] Here is the likely Derby pace setter who is, on the other hand, unlikely to get the 10-furlong distance. He’ll give you a thrill early in the race at big odds, but that’s all. Can’t recommend.

Flameaway [ML: 30-1 – Scat Daddy – M. Casse/Lezcano – 9: 5-2-0 - $704,834] Throughout his career, Flameaway has been a horse you can count on. Regardless of the racing surface, he competes and hits the board. He did not win a major prep, and the extra distance is a concern for this son of Scat Daddy. Plus, the water is much deeper in the Derby. There will be value. Possible play underneath in the trifecta and superfecta.

Audible [ML: 8-1 – Into Mischief – Pletcher/Castellano – 5: 4-0-1 - $882,920] Audible has been my top choice to win the Derby since the Holy Bull, and I’m sticking with him. He checks the big boxes of the past five years while unbeaten as a 3-year-old and winner of the 100-point Florida Derby. The Todd Pletcher trainee offers value when listed as the fourth choice. A must-use to win, and on top and underneath in the vertical wagers.

Good Magic [ML: 12-1 – Curlin – C. Brown/J. Ortiz – 5: 2-2-1 - $1,895,000] Good Magic’s training at Churchill Downs has been splendid. Chad Brown has him coming up to the big race in his third start of the current form cycle, just like for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Yet he is the sixth choice on the morning line. He is an overlay as a possible winner. Use in horizontal and vertical wagers.

Justify [ML: 3-1 – Scat Daddy – Baffert/Smith – 3: 3-0-0 - $666,000] Justify checks the key boxes. Throw in his connections of four-time Derby winner Bob Baffert and “Big Money” jockey Mike Smith and you have a clear Derby favorite. He's also a major underlay. In his three races, Justify has only beaten 14 total horses and had everything his way each time. There is no doubt that Justify could win the Derby, but that does not make him a value bet.  Strictly a defensive play in all wagers.

Lone Sailor [ML: 50-1 – Majestic Warrior – Amoss/Graham – 8: 1-3-1 - $334,237] Lone Sailor is another one of the horses that will be at the back of the pack early on, waiting to make one big run at the end. Reality is that he has just one career victory and that this field is so good that he's not likely to threaten at the end of the race. Derby is too tough a spot to use him.

Hofburg [ML: 20-1 – Tapit – Mott/I. Ortiz Jr. – 3: 1-1-0 - $227,950] Every Kentucky Derby has its wise guy horse, and Hofburg appears to be this year’s version with all the buzz about him. His Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott rarely brings horses to the Derby. Clearly, Hofburg is a colt on the improve, but his lack of experience is a real negative. He is the deep closer that I like best. I don’t see him winning the race, but he has a good chance to be a factor. Underneath in the vertical wagers.

My Boy Jack [ML: 30-1 – Creative Cause – Desormeaux/Desormeaux – 10: 3-3-2 - $645,145] Deep closers like My Boy Jack have their merits in the Derby because they will be passing tired horses in the final furlong or so. Jockey Kent Desormeaux has three Kentucky Derby victories. He is not my top choice of the closers, however. If you like him, he's worth using. Underneath in the tri- and superfecta.

Bolt d’Oro [ML: 8-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – Ruis/V. Espinoza – 6: 4-1-1 - $1,016,000] I have not been a fan of Bolt d’Oro since his third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His best performance was in the Grade 1 FrontRunner as a juvenile, and he has not duplicated that race since. That being said, the Derby is going to offer the highest odds of his career by far. If you still like him, you should take advantage of that value. I will use him defensively only because he is listed as the fourth choice. He’ll be on my vertical tickets.

Enticed [ML: 30-1 – Medaglia d’Oro – McLaughlin/J. Alvarado – 6: 3-1-1 - $595,680] Enticed is a talented horse, who in most other Derbys would be considered more of a serious contender. I don’t think he can compete with the top seven to 10 horses in this field. Big odds will be there, but still I will not use him. Underneath value in the verticals, maybe?

Bravazo [ML: 50-1 – Awesome Again – Lukas/L. Contreras – 8: 3-1-1 - $436,928] Can you go wrong with very big odds on a horse trained by four-time Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas? The reality is that Bravazo’s best performance in the Grade 2 Risen Star is not good enough for this stellar Derby field. You can’t use them all.

Mendelssohn [ML: 5-1 – Scat Daddy – A. O’Brien/Moore – 7: 4-1-0 - $1,961,137] There is so much to like about Mendelssohn and so little to be concerned about with him. He’s unbeaten at 3 and the winner of a 100-point prep. He has already travelled to the US to win in the Breeders’ Cup. His royal pedigree and hefty purchase price as a yearling are advertisements for his talent. However, trainer Aidan O’Brien has a poor record shipping to America for non-Breeders' Cup races. The biggest drawback is his likely price that makes him one of the few underlays in the race. Still, I think he can win the race. I’m lucky enough to have a 44-1 Derby Future bet on him (now, that’s value). Use him in all wagers.

Instilled Regard [ML: 50-1 – Arch – Hollendorfer/Van Dyke – 7: 2-2-1 - $294,000] This one showed promise early on the Kentucky Derby trail, but his last two starts were not good enough. His most recent four speed figures were similar, so it’s tough to see him stepping up in the Run for the Roses. Not a serious contender.

Magnum Moon [ML: 6-1 – Malibu Moon – Pletcher/L. Saez – 4: 4-0-0 - $1,177,800] To me, Magnum Moon is one of the likely winners of the Derby, and as you can see from the morning line he is listed as the third choice at 6-1. In the Arkansas Derby his odds were .80-1, and the highest of his four starts was 3.60-1 in his debut. There is good value on this unbeaten colt. Play him to win and in exacta, trifecta and superfectas.

Solomini [ML: 30-1 – Curlin – Baffert/Prat – 6: 1-3-2 - $752,000] Solomini has become the mystery horse, one with talent that has yet to put the pieces together to win a big race. In the Derby, he will be a generous price, but it would be quite a surprise if he can run his best race in the Run for the Roses. The anticipated price makes him attractive. Underneath in the trifecta and superfectas.

Vino Rosso [ML: 12-1 – Curlin – Pletcher/Velazquez – 5: 3-0-1 - $620,500] This son of Curlin bounced back to win the 100-point Wood Memorial. His aggressive run down the Aqueduct stretch makes you think that he will handle the traffic and bumping of the Derby nicely. Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez chose Vino Rosso over all the other Pletcher runners because he knows that he can get the Derby distance. Generous odds will be available on this horse, making him my biggest value bet. A key horse in the vertical wagers and a horse to use in horizontals, too.

Noble Indy [ML: 30-1 – Take Charge Indy – Pletcher/Geroux – 4: 3-0-1 - $691,600] Here is the fourth-ranked horse from the Todd Pletcher barn and the winner of the 100-point Louisiana Derby. He will come with some good odds as the No. 8 choice on the morning line.  I don’t like him in the win position, but I would use him underneath.

Combatant [ML: 50-1 – Scat Daddy – Asmussen/Santana Jr. – 7: 1-3-1 - $388,550] Another one of the closers in this Derby field with lots of excuses in his last few races: a runoff winner in the Arkansas Derby, a bumpy trip in the Rebel, and a muddy track in the Smarty Jones. It isn’t going to be any easier in the Derby as he tries to rally in the big field. I liked him earlier in the year than I do now. Not in this Derby.

Summary: In the 2018 Kentucky Derby, I will be playing the Oaks/Derby two-day daily double as a horizontal wager using Midnight Bisou and Eskimo Kisses in the Oaks with Audible, Vino Rosso, Justify, Good Magic, Mendelssohn, and Magnum Moon in the Derby.

•$10 daily double 10 with 5, 6, 7, 14, 16, 18 = $60

•$5 daily double 13 with 5, 6, 7, 14, 16, 18 = $30

One of my trifecta plays will use Vino Rosso as a key horse in all three positions with five other horses in the top spot and 10 in the other spot. That would make tickets that have 5 horses x Vino Rosso x 10 horses, 5 x 10 x Vino Rosso, and Vino Rosso x 10 x 10. Playing 50-cent trifectas, that is: $22.50, $22.50, and $45 for a total of $90.

• For a more detailed explanation of the trifecta horses, watch this week’s edition of HorseCenter, which will be posted on Wednesday morning.