Kentucky Derby 2018 and the return of dual qualifiers

There was a time in 20th century America that dual qualifiers, identified in what was then called the Experimental Free Handicap, dominated Kentucky Derby handicapping. The theory is based on pedigree and dosage, with the latter a system based on statistical analysis to help determine the successful performance of a thoroughbred.

This year, the Experimental Free Handicap became known as The Jockey CLub’s Annual 2 Year Old Rankings. But the concept remained the same.

Dual qualifiers are horses ranking within 10 pounds of the top weight in the rankings who also sport a Dosage Index of 4.0 or less and a Center of Distribution of 1.25 or less. A dual qualifier is, essentially, a horse bred to travel the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance.

The three triple crown winners between 1973 and 1977 were dual qualifiers: Secretariat (1973) had a dosage of 3.00. Seattle Slew (1977) had a dosage of 2.14.  The dosage of Affirmed (1978) was at 2.08. But by the time American Pharoah won the triple crown in 2015, his dosage registered at 4.33.

The dosage theory has had both its defenders and critics.

Speed has been a dominant factor in recent Derby wins. In 2017, Always Dreaming had a dosage index of 5.00 and won. At the time, there were four dual qualifiers in Derby 143: Gunnevera at 2.00; Gormley at 2.25; McCracken at 2.43; and Practical Joke at 3.00. None of them hit the board.

The last dual qualifier to win the Derby was Super Saver in 2010.  Before Super Saver, Street Sense had become the first dual qualifier to win the Derby since 2000.

In the 2018 Kentucky Derby, there are nine dual qualifiers: Bolt D’Oro at 3.00; Good Magic at 3.40; Enticed at 3.00 Flameaway at 3.00; Free Drop Billy at 1.74; Instilled Regard at 1.59; Mendelssohn at 1.80; My Boy Jack at 1.77; and Solomini at 3.00 

Scat Daddy, who was listed as dual qualifier in the 2006 Experimental Free handicap with a dosage of 2.47, is the sire of four derby contenders: Combatant at 2.60; Flameaway at 3.00;  Mendelssohn at 1.80 and Justify at 3.00. The race favorite, of course, did not race at age 2 and wasn't included in the rankings.

Will 2018 be the year the pendulum swings toward the dual qualifiers? In what’s viewed as a wide-open field, perhaps a longshot scores the upset. 

Giacomo and Mine That Bird both had a dosage of 4.33. The superfecta for the 2005 win by Giacomo paid $864,254, and in 2009 with Mine that Bird it returned $557,006. 

C’est la vie.

W. Sherman Jackson is Professor Emeritus of American Constitutional History and Law at Miami University and formerly Fiulbright Professor, Nigeria, West Africa. He has taught and lectured extensively. His scholarly writings have been published in books, magazines and newspapers, including the Cincinnati Enquirer.