Kentucky Derby 2018 Scouting Report: West Coast Division IV

When we last rolled down the West Coast list of 2018 Kentucky Derby prospects attempting to earn a trip to Churchill Downs, Bolt d’Oro hadn’t even run as a 3-year-old, and Justify had raced just once overall.

Times have changed, with the former coming back to win the Grade 2 San Felipe thanks to McKinzie’s disqualification, and the latter emerging as a two-turn allowance winner who will step up to the Grade 1 level next out.

With just a few preps left to run, here’s a glance at the West Coast Derby hopefuls:

(Sire – Trainer – Owner – Kentucky Derby points)

RELATED: Also check out our East Coast report!

Probable Derby Starter

Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro — Mick Ruis — 64): He impressed coming off the shelf in the San Felipe, nearly catching McKinzie in a thrilling stretch duel that’s proven the highlight of the Derby prep season so far. Ruis has long said the horse will be cranked higher for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 7.

McKinzie (Street Sense — Bob Baffert — Watson, Pegram and Weitman — 40): The leader — for now — in the Baffert barn will meet Bolt d’Oro again before the first Saturday in May, also a Santa Anita Derby probable. Even despite his San Felipe DQ, this one should already be safely in the field at Churchill on points.

Solomini (Curlin — Bob Baffert — Zayat Stables — 34): He’ll go East for the Grade 2 Wood Memorial as a final prep. Baffert and the Zayats have both won the race previously. Solomini was second to the precocious Magnum Moon in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and deserves another look after stuck along the inside most of the way at Oaklawn.

In a League of His Own

Justify (Scat Daddy — Bob Baffert — WinStar Farms, China Horse Club, SF Racing and Starlight Racing — 0): Where do you even categorize this one? He’s looked flawless in two starts, boasts big-name connections and continues to dominate his competition in the mornings, too. We’ll find out what he’s really made of April 14 in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Magnum Moon — the other top horse from the crop that didn’t race as a juvenile — is waiting.

First Tier

Instilled Regard (Arch — Jerry Hollendorfer — OXO Equine LLC — 19): The Grade 3 Lecomte winner ran fourth as the favorite in his return to the Fair Grounds for the Grade 2 Risen Star. He’ll get another chance to prove himself in the Santa Anita Derby. Third or better should send the colt to Churchill. Perhaps the merry-go-round Risen Star merits an excuse.

My Boy Jack (Creative Cause — Keith Desormeaux — Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Monomoy Stables — 12): He’s the morning line favorite in Saturday’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, representing a homecoming for Desormeaux and a major proving ground for the horse. The Grade 3 Southwest winner got the job done last out on a muddy track and along a golden rail. Neither look to be in play this weekend.

Blended Citizen (Proud Citizen — Doug O’Neill — Greg Hall, Sayjay Racing — 22): Turfway Park’s Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks winner was a late nomination to the Triple Crown series. Whether he’ll run again, or if connections will instead hope his points are good enough to qualify for the Derby, is an unknown. The colt will remain with O’Neill’s Midwest string rather than ship back to California.

Second Tier

All Out Blitz (Concord Point — Simon Callaghan — Kaleem Shah — 4): If there’s one to highlight in Sunday’s Grade 3 Sunland Derby, it’s this one. Callaghan got eventual Derby runner-up Firing Line to Churchill Downs with this route in 2015 and will look to duplicate it. He was third last out when shortening to seven furlongs in the Grade 2 San Vicente and was also nominated late this week to the Triple Crown.

Greyvitos (Malibu Moon — Adam Kitchingman — Tiple B Farms — 10): Having worked consistently since Feb. 26 on the return from surgery to remove bone chips in his knees, the multiple stakes winner is possible to return April 14 in Keeneland’s Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. A win would likely qualify him for the Kentucky Derby, if connections want to make that leap.

Lombo (Graydar — Mike Pender — Mike Lombardi — 10): We’ll keep him here given he has a points win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis, but this one doesn’t look like much of a Derby prospect after running seventh in the San Felipe. He’s a decent front-runner, but at a shorter distance than 1 1/4 miles.

Kanthaka (Jimmy Creed — Jerry Hollendorfer — West Point Thoroughbreds — 10): Third, but by 6 1/2 lengths in the San Felipe, he’d appear a good one to take a shot with in the Santa Anita Derby. That last out was his two-turn debut, and there’s no shame in that margin to two of the Derby trail’s leaders, especially after a bobble at the start lost him ground.

Ones to Watch

After a pair of off-the-board finishes in graded stakes company, Shivermetimbers, who was thought to be a Derby type of horse, ran second March 11 to Justify by 6 1/2 lengths. Whether that earns him a trip to the Santa Anita Derby is unknown.

Following All Out Blitz (4-1) on the Sunland Derby morning line — at least when it comes to the West Coast-based contingent — Choo Choo (8-1), Runaway Ghost (8-1) and Peace (12-1). 

Choo Choo won a stakes over Golden Gate Fields’ synthetic but didn’t fire over the same surface in the El Camino Real Derby. Runaway Ghost is the local New Mexico favorite and ran second to UAE Derby-bound Reride in the Mine That Bird Derby. Peace, simply, might be overhyped given his connections. It happens. He hasn’t hit the board in two stakes starts since breaking his maiden, but did pick up five Derby points from the San Felipe. He runs back at Sunland Park off two weeks’ rest.

Dropping Down

Restoring Hope was ready for “the deep end of the pool,” Baffert said after he broke his maiden in January. But the colt didn’t make it in the 12-horse Sunland Derby field, as others with higher career earnings were given priority. Does that make him a Santa Anita Derby candidate?

Ayacara was well-regarded after running second to Lombo in the Robert B. Lewis, given his late charge. It didn’t materialize in the San Felipe. He’s another who could get a chance at the Santa Anita Derby.

Baffert-trained Ax Man, who was so impressive on debut, is back to the allowance level, while California Cup Derby winner Heck Yeah ran most recently on turf, and $950,000 purchase Nero hasn’t been back to the races since finishing second to Kanthaka in the San Vicente.