Kentucky Derby 2018 Scouting Report: West Coast Division II

By Jonathan Lintner 

A month ago, we pointed out in an initial scouting report that the West Coast hopefuls for the 2018 Kentucky Derby were a group that’s talented, but without depth. The outlook has changed substantially in the New Year.

While those hitting the wire behind recent prep winners appear a weak bunch, there’s plenty to be excited by when it comes to runners who could graduate to stakes-level competition next out.

RELATED: Check out our East Coast and Central Division reports!

(Sire – Trainer – Owner – Kentucky Derby points)

The Leader

Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro — Mick Ruis — 14): The likely 2-year-old champion should hold this position up until his next start in the March 10 San Felipe. But he was also beaten last out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and will open his campaign later than expected due to a muscle pull. Bolt d’Oro last won a race on Sept. 30.

First Tier

Instilled Regard (Arch — Jerry Hollendorfer — OXO Equine LLC — 14): He ran stride for stride with other top West Coast horses in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity and next out dominated with a stalking trip in the Grade 3 Lecomte. His maiden defeats include stakes-quality horses.

McKinzie (Street Sense — Bob Baffert — Watson, Pegram and Weitman — 20): Unbeaten, but also awarded the Los Alamitos Futurity win due to a disqualification, he took a major step forward in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes, showing the ability to relax and rate with blinkers off.

Mourinho (Super Saver — Bob Baffert — Phoenix Thoroughbred III — 10): He could be a one-dimensional speedster. But right now, Mourinho has proven he can carry that speed on the front end of a two-turn race taking the Smarty Jones Stakes — and getting a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort.

Solomini (Curlin — Bob Baffert — Zayat Stables — 14): First across the wire in the Los Alamitos Futurity, he also beat Bolt d’Oro to the line in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It’s unsure when his 3-year-old debut will happen, as the colt recently missed a work due to an elevated fever.

Second Tier

All Out Blitz (Concord Point — Simon Callaghan — Kaleem Shah — 4): After taking on some of California’s top prospects in two maiden races, he emerged a winner Dec. 16, then took another step running second to McKinzie in the Sham, hanging on after setting the pace at 14-1.

City Plan (Street Sense — Eoin Harty — Godolphin Stable — 0): While fifth in the Sham, he’s worth a mention given a win over Golden Gate’s Tapeta two back in the Gold Rush Stakes. He’s already back on the work tab.

Shivermetimbers (Shanghai Bobby — Jerry Hollendorfer — Mark DeDomenico LLC and West Point Thoroughbreds — 1): A wise-guy pick in the Sham, he surprised many with a dismal fourth-place effort coming out of a well-regarded maiden win Nov. 23 at Del Mar. Expect him to get another chance on the trail.

Ones to Watch

Here’s where it gets interesting for West Coast Derby hopefuls — and we’ll start with Ax Man. The Baffert trainee won his debut by 9 1/2 lengths, though it was run with new conditions: entrants either had to be homebreds or sold at auction for less than $100,000. Ax Man was the only homebred in the field. But he has worked with the best of the Baffert barn and could go in the Grade 2 San Vicente next out.

Another who could be heading to stakes, particularly the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis, is Peace, the Richard Mandella trainee who broke his maiden at third asking. He was defeated in his first start by Mourinho (but finished ahead of Instilled Regard) before beaten a head in the second by Shivermetimbers.

Nero, a quirky, $950,000 colt, broke his maiden last Saturday in a photo finish. He has talent, jockey Victory Espinoza said, but is still learning how to use it. The horse tends to stop in the lane and doesn’t like the whip. Baffert has twice-raced Restoring Hope in his care — that one’s a Giant’s Causeway homebred — and will unveil two others to watch on Saturday in Show Time Rocket and Masked, who go in Santa Anita’s second race.

Finally, Kanthaka, who closed to win a 12-horse allowance back on Dec. 26, sports connections including Hollendorfer, West Point Thoroughbreds and veteran jockey Rafael Bejarano. He’s posted two works since that effort.

On the Shelf

One of the West Coast’s potential best prospects — Greyvitos, a multiple stakes winner — is getting time off after bone chips were discovered in both his knees following a win in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. It’ll be tight for him to make the Derby, but trainer Adam Kitchingman told us it’s not impossible.

We’ll also wait to see more from Beautiful Shot, a Desormeaux trainee who ran third behind Greyvitos and Mourinho in Del Mar’s Nov. 11 Bob Hope. He has worked once since then, but that was back in November.

From the Baffert barn, American Pharoah’s full brother St. Patrick’s Day hasn’t worked since his Sept. 2 maiden win; Talent Scout is inactive since defeating a number of well-known runners Oct. 9; and Zatter, fifth in the Grade 1 FrontRunner, also has not worked recently.

Key Dates

• Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), Santa Anita Park — Feb. 3

• San Vicente Stakes (G2), Santa Anita Park — Feb. 10*

• El Camino Real Derby (G3), Golden Gate Fields — Feb. 17

• San Felipe Stakes (G2), Santa Anita Park — March 10

• Sunland Derby (G3), Sunland Park — March 25

• Santa Anita Derby (G1), Santa Anita Park — April 7