Kentucky Derby 2018 Scouting Report: West Coast Division III

So, what have we gleaned lately in 2018 Kentucky Derby preps on the West Coast? Not a whole lot, as the region's leader hasn't yet run in the New Year. But chance could be coming soon with the Grade 2, $400,000 San Felipe Stakes set for March 10 at Santa Anita Park.

Our latest look at contenders in California features Bolt d'Oro and the rest, including a number of names to know from the Bob Baffert barn stepping up in the next round of preps.

RELATED: Check out our East Coast report!

(Sire – Trainer – Owner – Kentucky Derby points)

The Leader

Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro — Mick Ruis — 14): This is a tepid placement, given we haven’t seen him run since the Breeders’ Cup, and it’s been nearly five months since he last won a race. But he does pick up Javier Castellano for the San Felipe, and word that he’ll be more forwardly placed seems like the right type of training regimen for a true Derby contender. We’ll see how he’s progressed in just a couple of weeks with the horse working every six days.

First Tier

Instilled Regard (Arch — Jerry Hollendorfer — OXO Equine LLC — 19): He stays in this category after the speed somehow stayed in last Saturday’s Grade 2 Risen Star. This West Coast shipper looked to be in a perfect position to pounce, but just didn’t, finishing 2 1/4 lengths back. He could still emerge as one of the division leaders in a final prep.

McKinzie (Street Sense — Bob Baffert — Watson, Pegram and Weitman — 20): He’s the current Las Vegas favorite, and could be one victory away from the consensus top choice. There’s little to knock, especially given the improvement shown in the Grade 3 Sham when running without blinkers. His next start is unknown, but it could be a sign of confidence from Baffert if he remains West for the San Felipe.

Solomini (Curlin — Bob Baffert — Zayat Stables — 14): Back working consistently after missing some time due to an elevated temperature, he’s a known runner who does have some baseline fitness, continuing to race into December. He appeared to put it all together, hitting the wire first in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity before stewards knocked him down for bumping in the lane.

Second Tier

Kanthaka (Jimmy Creed — Jerry Hollendorfer — West Point Thoroughbreds — 0): This one made the most of a pace collapse going seven furlongs in the Grade 2 San Vicente. It’s a savvy move by West Point Thoroughbreds to ship him East for the Grade 3 Gotham, another one-turn race, next time. The fractions were also fast in his Dec. 26 maiden win, so we’ll see if he can contend when things settle on the front end.

Lombo (Graydar — Mike Pender — Mike Lombardi — 10): He won a rather weak renewal of the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis, going wire to wire at 1 1/16 miles, and didn’t finish up particularly strong. But this is an improving colt who could jump up and hit the board in a major Santa Anita Park prep if he gets a comfortable, front-running trip.

My Boy Jack (Creative Cause — Keith Desormeaux — Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Monomoy Stables — 12): All options are open for the Desormeaux brothers after this one ran up the rail to win a muddy renewal of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes on Monday. Now with victories on turf and dirt, he’ll have to prove he can replicate the effort on a fast main track before taken seriously on the Derby trail. But he’s just a few points from making it into the gate.

Mourinho (Super Saver — Bob Baffert — Phoenix Thoroughbred III — 11): Jockey Drayden Van Dyke blamed the surface for a stretch fade to fourth in the Southwest Stakes. And that may be a legit claim, given this one hasn’t had to train or work over a wet track in Southern California. Until spinning his wheels late, he looked comfortable setting the pace and has won around two turns. Don’t count him out yet.

Ones to Watch

Justify moved himself to the top of this category Sunday when he won at first asking at Santa Anita Park and received a 104 Beyer Speed Figure — top of this 3-year-old class — for the effort. Baffert says he has a plan to get this one to the Derby. It’ll be exciting to see whether that plays out for the $500,000 son of Scat Daddy.

Baffert has another readying for a stakes race in Restoring Hope, who didn’t look quite as precocious in winning Feb. 2 at third asking, but is one who the Hall of Famer said is ready now for the deep end of the pool. Finally, Heck Yeah ran his record to 3-for-3 in the California Cup Derby, passing his first main track test Monday facing state-breds. He, too, could hit the trail next out.

So, that’s all for the Bafferts (for now). Others we’ll keep an eye on our West include Ayacara, a son of hot sire Violence who was second in the Robert B. Lewis after Lombo went unchallenged on the early lead. Take the One O One has been away from the races since running third to Bolt d’Oro in the Grade 1 FrontRunner but is working consistently. And Pubilius Syrus, while not nominated to the Triple Crown series, has put his best foot forward lately on turf, winning consecutive stakes at Santa Anita.

This Sunday, a prep for the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, the Mine That Bird Derby, will run in New Mexico. Steve Asmussen trainee Reride sits a 5-2 morning line favorite having drawn the rail in a field of nine. Runaway Ghost is another to watch, breaking from post four and with a recent stakes win over the surface. He tired late in the Los Alamitos Futurity but has seen the West Coast’s best. Looking ahead to the Sunland Derby, Asmussen is likely to send New York Central, who won an allowance race right after the Southwest. His final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1.01 seconds off My Boy Jack’s performance.

Dropping Down

Maiden winners Peace and Shivermetimbers didn’t show Derby potential when fifth and seventh, respectively, in the Robert B. Lewis. From that same race, fourth-place finisher Regulate, remains a mystery as a colt that went off at 11-1 with connections like Baffert and Juddmonte Farms, which also bred him. Ax Man, who faded from the pace in the San Vicente, and Nero, who was also near the front and managed to hang on for second, will receive their own try at two turns.

All Out Blitz went from routing as the Sham Stakes runner-up to Sprinting in the San Vicente, in which he was third. Not nominated to the Triple Crown, it would be surprising to see him on the trail again. The same goes for Choo Choo, the California Derby winner at Golden Gate Fields who ran fifth in last Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby.

On the Shelf

Trainer Adam Kitchingman isn’t giving up on Greyvitos’ Derby trail chances, as the multiple stakes winner is back to training after surgery to remove bone chips in both his knees. The colt is nominated to the Arkansas Derby, run on April 14, the last weekend of Derby qualifiers.

One name we know we won’t see on the trail is St. Patrick’s Day, the full brother of American Pharoah who Coolmore reported is on the mend in Europe — and could race there — once he heals up from a tendon injury. Others from the Baffert barn who haven’t appeared lately on the work tab include Talent Scout and Zatter.

Key Dates

• San Felipe Stakes (G2), Santa Anita Park — March 10

• Sunland Derby (G3), Sunland Park — March 25

• Santa Anita Derby (G1), Santa Anita Park — April 7