Kentucky Derby 2018 Scouting Report: West Coast Division

By Jonathan Lintner

As evidenced by a field of five in last weekend’s Los Alamitos Futurity, the West Coast’s 2018 Kentucky Derby contingent — at least entering the New Year — is talented but lacks any depth.

But Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert likes to say horses carry in California speed to the first Saturday in May having trained through the winter in ideal weather. Expect more contenders to emerge from Baffert’s barn as the road to the Kentucky Derby heats up.

For now, though, all the headlines still belong to Bolt d’Oro who, while defeated for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, took an exceedingly wide trip and got up for third.

While diving into this West Coast list of Derby contenders, check out early scouting reports for the East Coast and Central U.S. as well.

Top 10 Derby Contenders (West Coast Division)

(Sire — Trainer — Owner — Kentucky Derby Points)

1. Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro — Mick Ruis — Mick Ruis — 14): Ruis made a point to train this horse for route races, and Bolt d’Oro took to them. A plan to start 2018 with a sprint is in place, with the Santa Anita Derby the anticipated final prep before the first Saturday in May. He checks all the boxes so far, but will he continue progressing?

2. Solomini (Curlin — Bob Baffert — Zayat Stables — 14): They didn’t come home fast in the Los Alamitos Futurity, but Solomini was the best of three contenders vying for a win. Despite disqualified for a bump after crossing the wire first, consider it a huge step forward for the colt.

3. Greyvitos (Malibu Moon — Adam Kitchingman — Triple B Farms — 0): We’ll learn more about this one Sunday when he goes as the favorite in Remington Park’s Springboard Mile. Last time out, he set the pace on his way to a 19.9-1 upset in the Grade 3 Bob Hope at Del Mar, with the victory earning him a 93 Beyer.

4. McKinzie (Street Sense — Bob Baffert — Pegram, Watson and Weitman — 10): The hype for this Baffert trainee was muted a bit even as he was rewarded the Los Alamitos Futurity win. Solomini closed best in the 1 1/16-mile test after McKinzie tired late. Still, this is a (technically) unbeaten son of Street Sense who’s eligible to keep improving.

5. Instilled Regard (Arch — Jerry Hollendorfer — OXO Equine — 4): The Hollendorfer trainee made a big move up the Derby contenders watch with his Futurity effort off a dominant maiden win at Santa Anita. He ran right with Solomini and McKinzie, beaten in the photo with the latter after an inspired middle move.

6. Run Away (Run Away and Hide — Simon Callaghan — Kaleem Shah — 0): The Grade 2 Best Pal winner hasn’t yet had his chance around two turns, and he put in a flat effort last out in the Bob Hope. Still, he’s a multiple stakes winner with connections who know what it takes to get to the Derby.

7. Flip the Coin Jan (Trappe Shot — Doug O’Neill — ERJ Racing, Purple Rein Racing, Westside Racing and Steve Rothblum — 0): Looking like the two-time Derby winner O’Neill’s first legitimate contender on this year’s Derby trail, the colt broke his maiden last out, waking up with a 7 1/4 win going a Mile at Del Mar. He’s another West Coast contender in the Springboard Mile.

8. Nero (Pioneerof the Nile — Bob Baffert — Tabor, Magnier, Smith and Stonestreet Stables — 0): Baffert recently said the $950,000 purchase “was going through a little phase” and missed some training. But he’s back and “should be ready to run soon.” In a short class on the West Coast, he’s a win away from jumping into the top half of this list.

9. Mourinho (Super Saver — Bob Baffert — Phoeniex Thoroughbred III — 0): Another pricy Baffert horse — this one cost $650,000 — Mourinho has run second in back-to-back stakes races at less than a mile. He has worked consistently since a runner-up effort in the Bob Hope and could try going farther next time.

10. St. Patrick’s Day (Pioneerof the Nile — Bob Baffert — Mrs. John Magnier — 0): He deserves a mention, if just because he’s the full brother to 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. St. Patrick’s Day hasn’t raced since breaking his maiden Sept. 2 and doesn’t have a recent published work, but he remains at 40-1 in Derby odds from the Wynn Las Vegas.

Others to Consider: We’ll be watching Vision and Cool Bobby out of maiden wins, while Beautiful Shot ran third in the Bob Hope and could do well at longer distances. Los Alamitos contests the $100,000 King Glorious Stakes on Saturday as well. We'll see Bookies Luck stretch out to a mile for the first time.

Key Dates

Jan. 6 — Sham Stakes at Santa Anita

Feb. 3 — Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita

Feb. 10 — San Vicente Stakes*

Feb. 17 — El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields

March 10 — San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park

March 25 — Sunland Derby

April 7 — Santa Anita Derby

* - not an points-paying Derby prep, but a race that is expected to kick off Bolt d’Oro’s season.