Kentucky Derby 2018 Scouting Report: Central Division IV

The biggest preps on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail are about to kick off, starting with Saturday’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. With a new winner each prep in the central region, it’s difficult to pinpoint clear leader, but a standout should emerge in the 100-point races.                

RELATED: Check out our East Coast and West Coast reports!

(Sire – Trainer – Owner – Kentucky Derby Points)

Probable Derby Starter

Bravazo (Awesome Again – D. Wayne Lukas – Calumet Farm – 54): The 21-1 Risen Star (G2) winner won’t be coming back as a longshot in the Louisiana Derby. He hit the board in stakes twice at 2 but has found his best stride at 3. He won his 2018 debut, an allowance score at Oaklawn Park, and bested Snapper Sinclair by a nose in the Risen Star.

Magnum Moon (Malibu Moon – Todd Pletcher – Lawana and Robert Low – 50): The standout between Fair Grounds and Oaklawn seems to keep changing, but Magnum Moon put in a great performance in the Rebel Stakes (G2), only his third career start. He was a 4 ½-length debut winner at Gulfstream Park in January, picked up an easy win at Tampa Bay Downs in allowance company and took command of more experienced horses in the Rebel to win by 3 ½. The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby without racing at 2 was Apollo, who won in 1882. While history says it’s a tough feat, Magnum Moon is looking like a strong Derby contender. He is expected to return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Flameaway (Scat Daddy – Mark Casse – John Oxley – 30): Despite winning the Sam F. Davis (G3), Flameaway went off as the fourth choice when he returned for the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). While he went to gate-to-wire in the Sam F. Davis, he broke slow in the following prep and came with a late run to catch second. Flameaway will probably head to the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland next.

Quip (Distorted Humor – Rodolphe Brisset – WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Ltd. And SF Racing LLC – 50): After winning his debut and picking up an allowance victory on the Kentucky circuit, Quip turned in a troubled seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). When he returned four months later, bettors wrote him off at 19-1 in the Tampa Bay Derby, but he came out an impressive winner. Either the Blue Grass or the Wood Memorial (G2) will be next for Quip.

First Tier

Instilled Regard (Arch – Jerry Hollendorfer – OXO Equine, LLC – 19): Following fourth in the Risen Star, the LeComte (G3) winner has been stretching out in his subsequent works back at Santa Anita Park. He most recently went an easy six furlongs in 1:17.80. He’s likely to remain on the West Coast for his final prep and run in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

My Boy Jack (Creative Cause – Keith Desormeaux – Don’t Tell My Wife Stables and Monomoy Stables, LLC – 12): He’s the morning line favorite for the Louisiana Derby, but there doesn’t seem to be one large standout in the race. He’ll also have to prove he didn’t get lucky in a muddy Southwest and that he can sustain that strong rally again at Fair Grounds.

Snapper Sinclair (City Zip – Steve Asmussen – Bloom Racing Stable LLC – 22): Another consistent colt looking for a win this year. He was a stakes winner on the turf at 2 and has two good performances from Fair Grounds, including a nose loss in the Risen Star. Saturday’s Louisiana Derby gives him another chance to step it up again. 

Second Tier

Blended Citizen (Proud Citizen – Doug O’Neill – Greg Hall and Sayjay Racing LLC – 20): A trip to Turfway Park seemed to do the trick. Blended Citizen took five tries to break his maiden in California, ran fourth in the Eddie Logan Stakes on turf and third in the El Camino Real Derby on synthetic. At Turfway, also synthetic, he picked up his first stakes victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3).

Combatant (Scat Daddy – Steve Asmussen – Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Willis Horton Racing LLC – 22): Although he’s yet to pick up a stakes win, the horse has been nothing but consistent. He finished second in the Remington Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones Stakes and Southwest before running third in a more competitive Rebel.

Free Drop Billy (Union Rags – Dale Romans – Albaugh Family Stables LLC – 24): Winner of the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last year, he came back this year and finished second in the Holy Bull (G2), then third in the Gotham (G3) as the favorite. A return to Keeneland for the Blue Grass, the site of his Grade 1 win, could be his final Derby prep.

Sporting Chance (Tiznow – D. Wayne Lukas – Robert Baker and William Mack – 2): The Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner is going to need a big run if he wants to make it into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Out the fall of his 2-year-old campaign, Sporting Chance returned to pick up third in the Southwest but only managed fifth in the Rebel.

Ones to Watch

The Arkansas Derby is going to be an exciting race. Not only does it look like Magnum Moon will return, but Baffert is pointing Justify toward Oaklawn Park. Justify, another colt un-raced at 2, was a big maiden and allowance winner at Santa Anita and now gets to prove if he really is Kentucky Derby quality.

Exclamation Point, the half-brother to champion Classic Empire, is nominated to both the Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn Park and the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. The Lexington offers 20 Derby points to the winner.

As for the Louisiana Derby, there’s several horses who have another chance to step back up. Givemeaminit (2) is an interesting horse in the race. Although he broke his broke his maiden only two starts back in Louisiana-bred company and ran eighth in the Risen Star, he reunites with jockey Javier Castellano, who piloted him to fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Noble Indy (10) also returns. The Risen Star was his first stakes try after winning his first two races and he ran a respectable third. He’ll be breaking from the inside again, but this time with blinkers. Dark Templar and Lone Sailor (2) finished one-two in a Fair Grounds allowance last out. It will be the first stakes attempt for Dark Templar, while Lone Sailor will try to rebound from ninth in the LeComte.

Asmussen brings Retirement Fund back to Fair Grounds for Saturday’s Derby prep, who won his first two races there before finishing seventh in a muddy Southwest. From the same stable, New York Central will enter his first stakes in the Sunland Derby while Mine That Bird Derby winner Reride will travel to Dubai for the UAE Derby.

Dropping Down

The $1.5 million Curlin’s Honor had a chance to make a big splash in the Rebel after winning his first two starts, but faded to 10th after stalking the pace. Gotta Go returned from a troubled Kentucky Jockey Club in the Swale Stakes (G3) and rallied to second behind Strike Power, the eventual runner-up in the Fountain of Youth (G2). When Gotta Go stretched out again in the Fountain of Youth, though, he ran sixth. Zing Zang (1) broke his maiden on his third try but has run fourth, fifth and sixth respectively in the LeComte, Southwest and Rebel. While Promises Fulfilled has stepped up as the most imposing Derby hopeful from the Romans barn, stablemate Tiz Mischief (6) most recently ran fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby.

On the Shelf

Principe Guilherme was dominant in his first two starts and still received a lot of respect as the LeComte runner-up. Following a seventh place finish in the Risen Star, he’s been off the work tab.

Other Notes

One of Baffert’s other Derby contenders, Solomini, made his 2018 debut in the Rebel and finished second as the favorite. His next start will be the Wood Memorial.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has also said that Copper Bullet, winner of the Saratoga Special (G2), will not return in time for the Kentucky Derby.

Key Dates

• Louisiana Derby (G2), Fairgrounds – March 24

• Blue Grass Stakes (G2), Keeneland – April 7

• Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn Park – April 14

• Lexington Stakes (G3), Keeneland – April 14

• Kentucky Derby (G1), Churchill Downs – May 5