Kentucky Derby 2018 Scouting Report: Central Division III

While there’s no clear Kentucky Derby 2018 front-runner in the Midwest as of now, the Central Division grew interesting last weekend with new prep winners added to the mix. To add, the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes was a muddy mess, and the Grade 2 Risen Star won by a nose.

Here's the latest look at contenders from Kentucky, Arkansas and Louisiana poised to contend in the Derby.

RELATED: Check out our East Coast and West Coast reports!

(Sire – Trainer – Owner – Kentucky Derby Points)

The Leader

Bravazo (Awesome Again – D. Wayne Lukas – Calumet Farm – 54): Lukas knew this colt had more potential than most thought. He wasn’t turning many heads at 2, going 0-for-3 in stakes company, but his sophomore debut drew attention. In Oaklawn allowance company he ran down Ezmosh to win by a neck, with Dream Baby Dream another nine lengths back in third. Then at 21-1, Bravazo stalked Snapper Sinclair though the Risen Star and nosed him out at the finish. Lukas is eyeing the Louisiana Derby (G2) as a final prep.

First Tier

Flameaway (Scat Daddy – Mark Casse – John Oxley – 10): Oxley is rethinking his decision to not nominate Flameaway for the Triple Crown. A three-times stakes winner (two off the turf, one on the turf), Flameaway upset the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) going gate to wire and battled back to fend off Catholic Boy in the stretch. He will likely return in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2).

Instilled Regard (Arch – Jerry Hollendorfer – OXO Equine, LLC – 19): His 3 3/4-length victory in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) was the most impressive race of his career, but he only managed fourth in his Risen Star return.

Mourinho (Super Saver – Bob Baffert – Phoenix Thoroughbreds – 11): The rain and slop gives Mourinho an excuse for his fourth-place finish in the Southwest. However, the Smarty Jones winner also had more competition to contend with and will have to come back and show he can still win without everything his way.

My Boy Jack (Creative Cause – Keith Desormeaux – Don’t Tell My Wife Stables and Monomoy Stables, LLC – 12): Another colt with a previous stakes win on the turf, My Boy Jack rallied to a 4 1/2-length victory in the Southwest over Combatant, Sporting Chance and Mourinho. Desormeaux likes the Arkansas Derby (G1) or the Louisiana Derby as his next start.

Second Tier

Combatant (Scat Daddy – Steve Asmussen – Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Willis Horton Racing LLC – 12): This colt has been knocking on the door for a win, finishing second in three different Derby preps now: the Remington Springboard Mile, the Smarty Jones and the Southwest. If nothing else he has been consistent, and should get another shot in the Rebel (G2).

Free Drop Billy (Union Rags – Dale Romans – Albaugh Family Stables LLC – 14): Audible was the dominant performer in the Holy Bull, winning by 5 1/2 lengths, but Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner Free Drop Billy made a nice 3-year-old debut in the race. Although second, he was 7 3/4 lengths in front of stablemate Tiz Mischief. Both could come back in the Fountain of Youth (G2), or Tiz Mischief could ship for the Tampa Bay Derby or Rebel.

Snapper Sinclair (City Zip – Steve Asmussen – Bloom Racing Stable LLC – 22): A turf horse taken to dirt, Snapper Sinclair picked up a nice third in the Lecomte before a hard fought second in the Risen Star. This is another Asmussen horse just waiting for a win, which he may try for in the Louisiana Derby.

Sporting Chance (Tiznow – D. Wayne Lukas – Robert Baker and William Mack – 2): All things considered, Sporting Chance’s third-place run in the Southwest was a good return. Running his first route race after a five-month layoff over a muddy track, the Hopeful (G1) winner should be able to move forward off the effort.

Ones to Watch

A half-brother to Classic Empire, Exclamation Point made his debut a winning one. In a six-furlong maiden race at Oaklawn Park, the Brad Cox trainee led gate-to-wire to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Cox has said the colt will go two turns next time.

Mark Casse has a couple of exciting maiden winners on his hands. Curlin’s Honor, who cost $1.5 million as a 2 year old, was a first out winner during Keeneland’s fall meet. He is entered in allowance optional claiming at Fair Grounds this weekend. Casse also trains Telekinesis, who recently won his debut at Fair Grounds by 3 1/4 lengths.

In the Asmussen barn, New York Central most recently won an allowance at Oaklawn Park, holding off Transgress by a neck. He is looking at his stakes debut in the Sunland Derby (G3). Probable for the Rebel is recent Oaklawn allowance winner Title Ready, while Reride, who last out won the Big Drama Stakes, is entered in the Feb. 25 Mine That Bird Derby. Of course, we can't forget about Copper Bullet, the Saratoga Special (G2) winner who's back on the work tab with a race not yet selected.

Todd Pletcher-trained Noble Indy had a big test in the Risen Star, where he still managed to finish third after battling traffic trouble from the rail. He is possible to return in the Louisiana Derby.

Gotta Go, Churchill Downs' Street Sense Stakes winner who had a tough go in the Kentucky Jockey Club, rallied to second behind Strike Power in the Swale Stakes (G3). He is nominated to the Fountain of Youth. 

Dropping Down

The hype for Principe Guilherme died down after his seventh-place run in the Risen Star with no plans set in motion yet. Asmussen is thinking ahead for stablemates Zing Zang and Retirement Fund, who respectively ran fifth and a dead-heat for seventh in the Southwest. Zing Zang will point toward the Rebel and hopefully better weather conditions, while Retirement Fund may return in the Louisiana Derby, the same track he won his first two races over.

Seven Trumpets ran a close second in a muddy Jerome, but did not fire in the Southwest, tying with Retirement Fund in seventh. Stablemate Hollywood Star finished a distant fourth in the Sam F. Davis and is still looking for a stakes win. 

Lone Sailor dropped out of stakes company after running ninth in the Lecomte. He was most recently second to Dark Templar in a Fair Grounds allowance.

On the Shelf

The Tabulator, the Iroquois (G3) winner, and Bryzzo, a maiden winner for Dale Romans, have still not returned to the work tab. Romans’ Dak Attack, undefeated in two starts last year, returned to run third in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. He had one work following the race but is now off the trail dealing with shin issues that plagued him as a juvenile.

Key Dates

• Rebel Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Park – March 17

• Spiral Stakes (G3), Turfway Park – March 17

• Louisiana Derby (G2), Fairgrounds – March 24

• Blue Grass Stakes (G2), Keeneland – April 7

• Arkansas Derby (G1), Oaklawn Park – April 14

• Lexington Stakes (G3), Keeneland – April 14

• Kentucky Derby (G1), Churchill Downs – May 5