Kentucky Derby 2018: Early full field odds and analysis

The Road to the 2018 Kentucky Derby is complete, with 35 qualifying races producing 28 different winners, and now the prospective field is set for the May 5 race at Churchill Downs.

This is the only race in our country with a 20-horse field, and it will test the top 3-year-olds at a longer distance of 1 1/4 miles. That large field provides unique opportunities for American bettors given it boosts payoffs in all exotics, both vertical and horizontal.

1) Magnum Moon, 5-1 [ (150) 1st Arkansas Derby – Malibu Moon – Pletcher/L. Saez – 4: 4-0-0 - $1,177,800 ] Since the points qualifying system began in 2013, the Kentucky Derby winner was unbeaten in his 3-year-old season, and he won a 100-point qualifying race in his most recent race. Magnum Moon fits the criteria. The son of Malibu Moon is perfect in four career starts, all of which came in 2018, and he just scored in the Arkansas Derby. As one of four from he powerful Todd Pletcher barn, he is a horse that must be used in all of your Kentucky Derby wagers. One of the top choices.

2) Good Magic, 7-1 [ (134) 1^st Blue Grass – Curlin – C. Brown/J. Ortiz – 5: 2-2-1 - $1,895,000 ] Good Magic looks to become the third horse to win both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby, joining Nyquist (2016) and Street Sense (2007). Trainer Chad Brown had Good Magic ready to win the Juvenile in his third start of the year in 2017. The Derby will be this son of Curlin’s third start in 2018. Good Magic will need to continue to progress if he is going to gather up the roses. He is the winner of the 100-point Blue Grass. His numbers will need to improve.

3) Audible, 8-1 [ (110) 1^st Florida Derby – Into Mischief – Pletcher/Castellano – 5: 4-0-1 - $882,920 ] Like his stablemate Magnum Moon, Audible is unbeaten in 2018, and the winner of the 100-point Florida Derby. Audible was ultra-impressive in both of his wins at Gulfstream Park. He will need to transfer his success from Florida to Churchill Downs, but Pletcher took that path with Always Dreaming last year. He’s in the top four.

4) Noble Indy, 16-1 [ (110) 1^st Louisiana Derby – Take Charge Indy – Pletcher/TBD – 4: 3-0-1 - $691,600 ] Noble Indy bounced back from a less-than-ideal trip in the Risen Star to win Fair Grounds' 100-point Louisiana Derby by a neck. He could be the least likely of the Pletcher horses to win the Derby, but he is still better than most of the field. His speed figures have risen in every one of his four races and they will need to continue to do so. An improving horse.

5) Vino Rosso, 16-1 [ (107) 1^st Wood Memorial – Curlin – Pletcher/J. Velazquez – 5: 3-0-1 - $620,500 ] As you can see by now, all four of the Pletcher runners check the box for 100-point race winners. This son of Curlin bounced back from a below-par race in the Tampa Bay Derby to produce a strong last out win in New York. His aggressive run down the Aqueduct stretch makes you think that he will handle the traffic and bumping of the Derby nicely. This one is going to have lots of value for a Pletcher runner and should be a part of your trifecta and superfecta tickets. Rare: a Pletcher horse with decent odds.

6) Bolt d’Oro, 8-1 [ (104) 2^nd Santa Anita Derby– Medaglia d’Oro – Ruis/Espinoza – 6: 4-1-1 - $1,016,000 ] Don’t get me wrong: Bolt d’Oro is a talented horse, but I don’t like him in the Kentucky Derby. I just don’t see that he has made any progress since he impressed in the FrontRunner last year. He has never raced outside of Southern California, and his trainer has no Kentucky Derby experience. To add, Bolt has not hit the wire first in a race since September. You’ll get the best odds of his career.

7) Enticed, 20-1 [ (103) 2^nd Wood Memorial – Medaglia d’Oro – McLaughlin/J. Alvarado – 6: 3-1-1 - $595,680 ] Godolphin has yet to win the Kentucky Derby, and Enticed gives them another chance. However, when matched against the top horses in this field, Enticed has fallen short. Also, he lost his good stride when he got banged around in the Wood stretch drive. Doesn't appear to be a win contender.

8) Mendelssohn, 7-1 [ (100) 1^st UAE Derby – Scat Daddy – A. O’Brien/Moore – 7: 4-1-0 - $1,961,137 ] This Kentucky-bred checks all of the key boxes coming from the barn of European super trainer Aidan O’Brien. The winner of a 100-point race and unbeaten as a 3-year-old, he already has experience successfully shipping across the pond for his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He looked the part of a Derby winner at Meydan. The big question is his sire Scat Daddy and the 10-furlong Derby distance. Part of the top four.

9) Justify, 5-2 [ (100) 1^st Santa Anita Derby – Scat Daddy – Baffert/Smith – 3: 3-0-0 - $666,000 ] The Derby favorite could be any kind, as good as his first three races have been. His win over Bolt d’Oro confirmed that he can run with the best of the crop. However, at a short price is he a good bet? In his three races, Justify has only beaten 14 other horses and had everything his way each time. He’ll face more horses in one race in the Derby than he has faced in all of his other starts combined. Jockey Mike “Big Money” Smith has a 24: 1-4-1 record in the Derby. No doubt that Justify could win this, though. One of the top four.

10) Quip, 20-1 [ (90) 2^nd Arkansas Derby – Distorted Humor – Brisset/Geroux – 5: 3-1-0 - $482,800 ] Quip has only run one bad race in his five-race career, and that came in Churchill's Kentucky Jockey Club as a juvenile. That race turned out to be key on the trail, with some other quirky results. You have to admire his competitive nature. Quip handled everybody in the Arkansas Derby except Magnum Moon. A player in the exotic wagers.

11) Flameaway, 25-1 [ (70) 2^nd Blue Grass – Scat Daddy – M. Casse/Lezcano – 9: 5-2-0 - $704,834 ] Flameaway is the blue-collar battler in the Derby field. You can always count him to show up and give his all. This, combined with his tactical speed, make him an attractive horse to use in trifectas and superfectas. He should be able to place himself in a good position and fight through any traffic trouble. A horse you can count on.

12) Solomini, 25-1 [ (54) 3^rd Arkansas Derby – Curlin – Baffert/Prat – 6: 1-3-2 - $752,000 ] His third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby got him the points that he needed to make the field on the first Saturday in May, yet he still continues to have less than desirable trips. His performance at Oaklawn Park was decent, just a neck from second. But third in that field of nine does not give the confidence that I would need to expect a better performance at Churchill Downs. With his disqualification included, he has only a maiden win to his credit. The Derby is not a good fit.

13) Bravazo, 50-1 [ (54) 8^th Louisiana Derby – Awesome Again – Lukas/G. Stevens – 8: 3-1-1 - $436,928 ] If you note his victory in the Risen Star and see that he beat Noble Indy, you can feel good about his chances in the Run for the Roses. But he did so with an ideal pace scenario, and it is very difficult to overlook a performance in the Louisiana Derby. His stalking running style is what you want in the big race, but there are just too many horses in this very strong Derby field that seem to outclass this Lukas runner. Not this time for the Coach.

14) My Boy Jack, 20-1 [ (52) 1^st Lexington – Creative Cause – Desormeaux/Desormeaux – 10: 3-3-2 - $645,145 ] I have nothing but praise for the connections of My Boy Jack for their decision to run in Keeneland's Lexington Stakes on three weeks' rest. They took their Derby fate into their own hands and were rewarded with a victory by this son of Creative Cause. I like his last three races on the Derby trail, and I like his running style. Jockey Kent Desormeaux sports a strong Derby record -- 21: 3-1-4 -- with wins on Real Quiet, Fusaichi Pegasus, and Big Brown. This is the kind of horse that is in excellent form and can boost exotic payouts. A closer offering lots to like.

15) Promises Fulfilled, 75-1 [ (52) 9^th Florida Derby – Shackleford – Romans/Albarado – 5: 3-0-1 - $337,280 ] A front-running win in the Fountain of Youth was followed by a last-place effort in the Florida Derby. The chart comment says that he was “washy and hard-used,” and I suppose that could be interpreted as an excuse. It sure doesn’t make me feel like this son of Shackleford will be around at the end of the Kentucky Derby going 10 furlongs. Trainer Dale Romans (8:0-0-2) is searching for his first Derby victory. Unlikely to stay the distance.

16) Free Drop Billy, 25-1 [ (44) 3^rd Blue Grass – Union Rags – Romans/I. Ortiz Jr. – 8: 2-3-2 - $625,220 ] Trouble keeps on finding Free Drop Billy in his races. I was hoping that in the Blue Grass he would finally get a good trip and make some noise, but instead he got wiped out by Sporting Chance nearing the wire. Pushing that aside, he was no match for Good Magic. He has run against some of the best in this crop his entire eight-race career. I just feel that I needed to see more from him in the Blue Grass to get my support. Expect a mid-pack finish.

17) Lone Sailor, 45-1 [ (42) 2^nd Louisiana Derby – Majestic Warrior – Amoss/Graham – 8: 1-3-1 - $334,237 ] There was some buzz about his horse before the Lousiana Derby, but that can happen with his crafty trainer, Tom Amoss. He got a nice, ground saving trip and gave up the lead to Noble Indy near the wire. In the Run for the Roses, he is likely to be near the back of the field needing a clean trip to contend. Given the strength of this Derby field and the tactical style of the top choices, it'll be a tough task. Hard to recommend.

18) Hofburg, 35-1 [ (40) 2^nd Florida Derby – Tapit – Mott/I. Ortiz Jr. – 3: 1-1-0 - $227,950 ] As good as his second-place finish in the Florida Derby looked, this lightly raced son of Tapit is up against it at Churchill Downs. He is going to be far back early in Kentucky Derby and will then need to find a way through the field. That has been done before, but not with only three starts under his girth. He appears to have some talent and will probably become a stakes winner this summer. Not ready for the Derby.

19) Firenze Fire, 75-1 [ (39) 4^th Wood Memorial – Poseidon’s Warrior – Ja. Servis/P. Lopez – 9: 4-1-0 - $669,100 ] I like the Firenze Fire's story and his owner’s desire to have a Kentucky Derby runner, but he is a one-turn horse. He is not going to get the Derby distance, and a back-of-the-pack finish is anticipated. The longest shot in the field.

20) Gronkowski, 45-1 [ (Euro qualifier) 1^st Burradon – Lonhro (AUS) – Noseda/J. Spencer – 6: 4-1-0 - $135,644 ] I just don’t understand the special invitation for a European runner. The concept was to increase handle with these horses; a Japanese horse would do that, but in Europe the racing fans bet in their ubiquitous betting parlors and not participate in mutuel pools. Setting that aside, Gronkowski would be hard-pressed to win an allowance race on the Derby undercard. His last win came going a straight mile on synthetic. Plus, he will be over-bet due to his name. Does not belong in the race.

Summary: With this first look at the Kentucky Derby field, I have tried to narrow down horses that I think have a real chance to win the race and then other horses that should be used in vertical exotic wagers.

I do not bet win, place, and show in the Derby outside of future wagers. Keep in mind that the favorite has won the past five Derbys, or in other words, every year that the points system has existed. My focus has been on the trifecta where the payoffs are usually generous, even if the favorite hits the board.

That being said, I think that the winner will come from the top four that I identified above (listed alphabetically): Audible, Justify, Magnum Moon or Mendelssohn.

My trifecta tickets typically use nine or 10 horses. Some longer prices that I will likely include are Flameaway, My Boy Jack, Noble Indy, Quip, and Vino Rosso.

You can’t use the entire field in your tickets, so one of the biggest challenges about betting the Derby is that you have to take a stand against some horses because you really believe that they will be a factor in the finish of the race. Thus, the biggest names that I will not be using are Bolt d’Oro, Solomini and Enticed.

Matt Shifman authors Horse Racing Nation's "A New York State of Racing" blog and hosts the website's popular HorseCenter video show each week.