Kentucky Derby 2017 - The Winning Odds?
What odds horses will come in the 2017 Kentucky Derby? Let's take a look at what odds usually win the Derby and fill out the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta.
What about the favorite?
As we analyzed Kentucky Derby favorite history last week, the favorite didn't win between 1980 and 1999, but has now won four Kentucky Derby runnings in a row. But the last three favorites were dominant and no surprise: Nyquist (2.30-1), American Pharoah (2.90-1) and California Chrome (2.50-1) were strongly favored to win against big fields. Only Orb (5.40-1) was a longer favorite in a more wide open Kentucky Derby in 2013.
But looking at the higher priced Derby favorites, they haven't fared nearly as well. Of the 15 favorites that went off at 3-1 or higher, only Orb (5.40-1, 2013), Street Sense (4.90-1, 2007) and Smarty Jones (4.10-1, 2004) were able to get the job done, for a less than stellar 20% win rate.
What about the Odds of the other board hitters?
As we analyze the last 18 Kentucky Derby finishes, we can take a look at the odds of the 1-2-3-4 finishers below.
You can see that in many cases, a difficult 20-horse field leads to chaotic finishes where it is tough for the public to predict the winner and other 2-3-4 runners.
Big Odds + Large Fields = Huge Payoffs
As we look over the exacta, trifecta and superfecta payoffs over the last 18 years, we can see there are some pretty fantastic payoffs in there.
So the next question is - will there be another big payoff this year?
High Odds favorites lead to big payouts
As we covered last week in our analysis "Why Kentucky Derby 2017 Will Pay Big - Guaranteed!", high odds favorites lead to big payouts.
Reviewing the history of those high-priced favorite Kentucky Derby races, look how they all produced boxcar payoffs.
Even in the three cases where the favorite (Orb, 2013) or second-favorite (Super Saver, 2010 and Barbaro, 2006) won, the payoffs were still huge. In 2013, even with the favorite winning and the second-favorite Revolutionary running third, the payoffs were massive due to Golden Soul running second at 34-1.
That article shows how when looking at the Kentucky Derby Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta payouts over the last 11 years, we can see the correlation between the high-priced favorites and big payoffs!
For many reasons, we see big payoffs in this year's Derby. Even if the top contenders round out most of the 1-2-3-4 spots, the exacta, trifecta and superfecta will pay more than the last two years.
If you're looking to make a big Superfecta score, one of the big ones above, you should review our article on Kentucky Derby 2017 Superfecta Super Score Strategy.
No matter how you play it - Good Luck with your Kentucky Derby wagering!
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