Kentucky Derby 2017: Top Takeaways from the Rebel Result

Over 36,000 people crowded into Oaklawn Park last Saturday, for a dreamy spring day of horse racing, and the excitement of seeing a potential Kentucky Derby 2017 winner.

While the warm sun and blossoming cherry trees didn't disappoint those in the infield, the near-record crowd on hand probably did not see this year's wearer of the roses.

Recent followers of the Kentucky Derby trail have been spoiled. Since the inauguration of the Derby points series, the last three editions of America's greatest race were downright easy to pick. The top horses ran to their talents and bettors backed them with conviction: since 2014, the post time favorite has won the Kentucky Derby.

This is a complete 180 from the experience of seasoned Derby trackers. We remember those fraught years when the stakes earnings leaderboard filled the gate at Churchill Downs with a motley assortment of precocious-but-fading juvenile champs, sprinters trying to stretch out, and grinders who got up for 3rd or 4th to pad their bankrolls along the way.

For 2017, we're back to the good old days.

The Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn last Saturday promised a coronation - American Anthem, the royally-bred California colt, the "next Bodemeister" ... "Baffert's Lucky #7" ... "Following Pharoah's Footsteps"

What we got was a much more perplexing - and potentially lucrative - KY Derby picture.

First, the winner, Malagacy. This blond-maned son of 2011 Preakness winner, Shackleford, came into Hot Springs with two impressive victories on his resume, both at Gulfstream, both front-running affairs and both in 2017. He showed some tractability on Saturday, taking back just off the pacesetter in the Rebel and waiting for jockey Javier Castellano to tell him to go. This was exactly the type of race you want to see from a Derby contender, but Malagacy has a big strike against him. He did not make a start during his two-year-old season. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without a start as a juvenile since 1882 - the so-called Apollo Curse.

Now, before you shrug this off and bring up the other recently-broken jinxes (BC Juvenile, only 2 preps, no prep at 9F, etc...) here's something to think about. Some really great horses have won the Rebel en route to the KY Derby, with no juvenile record, Curlin and Bodemeister the most recent, and most talented duo. Bode came closest in 2012, but for whatever reason, he just could not pull off the win, getting beat by the more experienced I'll Have Another. While American Anthem did not turn out to be the "next Bodemeister," Malagacy just might be.

Speaking of Anthem, what happened there? The Sham stakes appears to have taken more out of winner Gormley and runner-up Anthem than first thought. Both ran uninspiring next out, classic "bounce" patterns. While many handicappers will jump off both for their next starts, I think they could come back with stronger efforts. Don't count them out yet.

Royal Mo is an imposing specimen, more like his sire, Uncle Mo, as a mature horse than the wirey Nyquist last year. He had no excuse, sat right where he needed to be and just did not have a punch at the end. Derby? Probably not.

The local Oaklawn contingent performed admirably, and all of them should be on your KY Derby tickets should they make the gate. 112-1 longshot bomber, Sonneteer, was the only closer making up ground at the end, looked excellent physically, and seems to be coming into his own at the right time. Though he is a maiden, he is not short of experience. He only needs another favorable pace setup and an experienced hand at the reins and he could pop up huge once again. Don't forget that his sire, Midnight Lute, was a sprinter only due to a physical issue - his grandsire, Real Quiet, was a top router. First Saturday in May? Maybe.

Untrapped and Petrov ran on valiantly to hit the Tri and Super respectively, and I look forward to their Arkansas Derby performances. Both have distance questions in their pedigrees, though their running styles could make up for that.

With 46 days til the Kentucky Derby, the picture is more a Picasso than a Stubbs. When it comes to finding a Derby winner, handicappers will have to look at the unexpected and make sense of the upside-down... and the successful ones will be handsomely rewarded at the windows on May 6.

-- By: Candice C. Curtis (@skipaway2000)