Kentucky Derby 2017 - Superfecta Super Score Strategy
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The Kentucky Derby Superfecta: The Big Score
Over the past dozen years, no race has consistently produced bigger payoffs that the Kentucky Derby, and the Kentucky Derby Superfecta. Kentucky Derby 2017 promises more of the same with a wide-open 20-horse field with no clear favorites.
In 8 of the past 12 years, the $2 Superfecta has been near the $50,000 mark or higher. The average Superfecta payoff was $167,959, although boosted by the massive payoffs with Mine That Bird in 2009 and Giacomo in 2005.
The Kentucky Derby Super Screener combines pace analysis, with 20 other key criteria in determining Superfecta tickets for the Kentucky Derby each year.
Because handicapping a race with 20 horses is so difficult, we need a proven strategy in order to attack the Superfecta.
Recently… A Shift Away from Closers?
While doing our analysis to create the screening criteria for the Kentucky Derby Super Screener, we came upon some interesting insights centered on the role of running styles and their impact on the outcome of the top four Kentucky Derby. Below is a chart we compiled that shows the top four finishers of the past 10 editions of the Kentucky Derby, their odds and their running style. In addition, we captured the first and second call fractional times of each race.
INSIGHTS:
Highly regarded pace types haven taken down a lot of money over the history of the Kentucky Derby. For example, in 2015, American Pharoah’s highly regarded stablemate Dortmund managed just a third place finish at 4-1 serving in his role as the pace of the race. In Kentucky Derby 2013 pace types Verrazano and Goldencents finished in the back half of the field, each at 8-1. In 2012, Bodemeister went off as the favorite and looked much the winner in mid-stretch but failed to hold the bid. Lion Heart and Peace Rules were also highly regarded “wire” types that managed to hit the board but missed the win.
Complete flops of recent favored pace types include: 2005 Bellamy Road, 2006 Brother Derek and 2010 Sidney’s Candy. War Emblem in 2002 broke through with a wire-to-wire victory. Prior to War Emblem’s wire victory, which was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from gate to wire? (the answer is the filly, Genuine Risk went wire-to-wire in the 1980 Kentucky Derby).
Here’s a summary of our findings from the chart above:
• Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, Closers/Deep Closers accounted for 26 of the slots or 65%.
• Third and fourth place accounted for the vast majority of closer finishes with nearly 75% of the 20 available slots taken up by a closer.
• For the first time in many, many years, the 2015 Derby trifecta was made up of no closers. And in the last two years, pace/presser horses filled two of the three trifecta spots. Is there beginning to be a shift away from closers?
• At least 2 Closer/Deep Closers hit the Superfecta in 9 of the past 10 editions (90%) of the Kentucky Derby. Six of 10 races (60%) featured 3 or more closer types hitting the top four positions.
• 40% of the second place finishers were comprised of tiring PACE/PRESSER types.
• In 2016, Nyquist was the first pace type to win the Kentucky Derby in the past 14 years. Bodemeister came close with a 2nd place finish in 2012.
• In every year except 2015 and 2016, at least one 20-1+ long shot has hit the Superfecta (Danzig Moon did finish 5th at 22-1 in the 2015 Derby and Suddenbreakingnews finished 5th at 24-1 in 2016)
• 80% of the 20-1+ board hitters were Closers/Deep Closers.
• The fourth place slot yielded seven 20-1+ bombers in the past 14 years.
For the 2017 Kentucky Derby, the Super Screener has projected the pace (and will confirm that projection once the final field is locked in). With two pace horses and as many as seven presser types, will the 2017 outcome look like last year’s or will one or two of the many 20-1+ long shot closers manage to hit the board?
To learn more about how the Super Screener uses historical pace, speed, cycle and trends to separate the Derby field, Get Your Copy Now!
Get Your Copy NOW & CRUSH the DERBY!
If the pace gets fast, this race could resemble the 2014 Kentucky Derby. California Chrome won as the favorite, but 37-1 longshot Commanding Curve (the Super Screener #1 Longshot) finished second keying off some monster prices including a $3,425 Trifecta and $15,384 Superfecta behind the favorite.
Below are just a few of the testimonials from Super Screener readers who crushed the Kentucky Derby trifecta and superfecta in recent years!
Read all the Super Screener fan testimonials here on the 2014 Kentucky Derby.
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