Kentucky Derby 2016: Can Nyquist Break the BC Jinx?
Since the beginning of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, Street Sense is the only horse to win both the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby and evade the “Juvenile Jinx.” One would think the top two-year-olds would go on to be the top three-year-olds, but maybe some of them have gone too hard to keep their best form. Nyquist, the favorite for Kentucky Derby 2016, has been unbeaten in seven starts, including a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Though he is the favorite for the big dance at Churchill Downs, the odds of him winning may not be as good as they seem.
About 51% of the horses that won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile did not even run the first Saturday in May, so Nyquist did make it that far. For the ones that did not make it, many missed the Triple Crown races all together, and some never ran again before Derby time. Out of the Juvenile winners that did make the Run for the Roses, only 33% of them placed in the top five.
Starting with the 1985 edition of the Kentucky Derby, the first after the inaugural Breeders’ Cup, 80% of the winners did not run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The odds seem to suggest that horses can withstand the Derby pressure better when they haven’t had a top-level two-year-old campaign.
Even though adding up the numbers between the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby say the odds are against Nyquist, the leaderboard point system makes Nyquist the star. The point system was put into play for the horses running in the 2013 Kentucky Derby. Since then, the favorite has won each year: Orb (2013), California Chrome (2014), and American Pharoah (2015).
Just two other Derby contenders this year ran in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, those being Brody’s Cause and Exaggerator, where they finished third and fourth respectively behind the winner Nyquist. Depending on the stats you choose to look at, Nyquist either has a rough test ahead of him in the Kentucky Derby or is practically guaranteed to win. Only time will tell.
By Christine Oser