Ky. Derby: 1 Vegas book says it got late action for Mystik Dan
Nevada bookmakers reported typically brisk, fixed-odds business for Kentucky Derby 2024, with one saying there seemed to be some prescient betting on the eventual winner.
“There was little to no interest on Mystik Dan in the days leading up to the race, including most of the day Saturday,” said Tanner Phares, risk manager at Circa Sports. “The bettors then decided in the last two hours until post (that) Mystik Dan was the horse. They bet him in the last hour like they had seen Sunday’s newspapers already.”
Grading Kentucky Derby betting trends after 2024 result.
It might have been as much about the value Circa was offering. Less than three hours before the Derby started, Mystik Dan’s odds were 40-1 to win, his biggest price in 2 1/2 months. As bigger bets came in, the price was cut until it closed at 13-1.
At Caesars Sportsbook and its William Hill locations, Mystik Dan shortened incrementally to 19-1. He had the opposite effect at the Westgate Superbook, drifting from 20-1 to 25-1.
“Mystik Dan was a good outcome for us,” said John Murray, director of race and sports at the Westgate. “Sierra Leone would’ve been a really bad outcome for us, but we got there by the nose. Great race.”
By comparison, Mystik Dan paid 18-1 in worldwide pari-mutuels that closed when the gates opened.
Since it opened its futures market first in November, Caesars had the longest exposure to liability but still reported itself to be on the plus side when the Derby dust settled.
“Good action overall,” said Caesars trading manager Paul Bach, who is the current dean of Derby oddsmakers in Las Vegas. “We held a good percentage. Not specifically late action but steady throughout.”
The odds for Mystik Dan to win were as long as 200-1 after he had finished fifth in the Smarty Jones on New Year’s Day at Oaklawn and before he won the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes in the slop on the same track Feb. 3.
In the more wide-reaching Kentucky Derby Future Wager, the pari-mutuel pools run nationally by Churchill Downs, Mystik Dan was listed individually for the first time in pool 2 during Thanksgiving weekend, and he ended up at 105-1. In pool 6, which closed April 6, he was 35-1, the longest odds he carried until this weekend at Circa.
These were the Kentucky Derby win odds available for Mystik Dan since the futures markets opened last fall:
| Mystik Dan | Caesars | Circa | Westgate | KDFW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 2 | *4-5 | |||
| Nov. 24 | 100-1 | |||
| Nov. 26 | 105-1 | |||
| Dec. 4 | 100-1 | 100-1 | ||
| Dec. 13 | 100-1 | 125-1 | ||
| Dec. 20 | 100-1 | 100-1 | ||
| Dec. 26 | ||||
| Jan. 3 | 125-1 | 175-1 | ||
| Jan. 8 | 125-1 | 175-1 | ||
| Jan. 16 | 125-1 | 175-1 | ||
| Jan. 21 | *2-1 | |||
| Jan. 24 | 125-1 | 200-1 | ||
| Jan. 31 | 125-1 | 200-1 | ||
| Feb. 7 | 95-1 | 60-1 | ||
| Feb. 14 | 85-1 | 55-1 | ||
| Feb. 18 | 21-1 | |||
| Feb. 21 | 30-1 | 60-1 | ||
| Feb. 28 | 30-1 | 30-1 | ||
| Mar. 6 | 30-1 | 30-1 | ||
| Mar. 13 | 30-1 | 25-1 | ||
| Mar. 17 | 16-1 | |||
| Mar. 20 | 30-1 | 25-1 | ||
| Mar. 27 | 20-1 | 26-1 | ||
| Apr. 1 | 16-1 | 15-1 | 16-1 | |
| Apr. 6 | 35-1 | |||
| Apr. 8 | 16-1 | 15-1 | 18-1 | |
| Apr. 17 | 16-1 | 17-1 | 20-1 | |
| Apr. 22 | 16-1 | 18-1 | 20-1 | |
| Apr. 27 | 16-1 | 20-1 | 25-1 | |
| Apr. 30** | 25-1 | 20-1 | 30-1 | |
| May 4** | 19-1 | 13-1 | 25-1 | 18-1 |
| *Mutuel field | ||||
| **After draw |