Keertana fair odds: New shooter has value over favorites

What you think of the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes on April 26 at Keeneland is likely to play a big role in how you approach the Keertana Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

That is because both races are 1 1/2 miles on turf, and the top four finishers from the Bewitched all are entered here, with winner Chop Chop the 9-5 morning line favorite.

I do not expect any of these four to offer value in this race. Chop Chop is the most likely winner, but I think she will get bet down off her morning line. Neither Atomic Blonde nor Vergara would surprise, but their figures do not make me excited either, given their morning-line prices.

The Bewitched fourth-place finisher, Tower Bridge, does not seem fast enough, but I realize that's famous last words given I had a similar comment regarding Seize the Grey in the Preakness. Still, can't bet them all, and at 10-1 morning line, Tower Bridge is a fade for me even with the red-hot combo of trainer Cherie DeVaux and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who are 4-for-their-last-11 together.

So if four of the seven in the Keertana are from the Bewitched, and we're fading that race, then who's left? Heavenly Appointed had a three-race win streak snapped in a high-level allowance at Keeneland. She reunites with jockey Kevin Gomez here for the longest race of her career, and I am expecting an improved performance.

If Heavenly Appointed is the fourth choice in the field of seven, then I expect her to be worth a win bet. The compact field gives me some concern that there will be any value in any of the exotics.

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