Keeneland opening day: Ashland fair odds, best bets & stats
The opening-day card for Friday at Keeneland is as good as any in recent memory, prompting Bailey Armour of 1/ST Bet to compare it to Christmas morning.
Given my opinion against many morning-line favorites, I am hoping to compare it to another day on the calendar: pay day.
Post time for the 10-race card is 1 p.m. EDT, and although every race offers an opportunity, I am especially keen to interact with the tote on races 2, 6 and 9 with an eye on races 5 and 10 as well.
Race 2 is the first 2-year-old race of the season and kicks off the early Pick 4. It's also the backend leg of the meeting's first daily double with the new 15 percent takeout. TwinSpires also has a great bonus on Keeneland doubles Wednesday-Friday this meet worth up to $50 each day. That's $500 for the meeting.
When it comes to handicapping races with first-time starters, Horse Racing Nation's first-time starter Power Rating Report is essential. And I don't feel that way because I work here; I feel that way because the results are undeniable.
For the spring meets in 2022 and 2023, 5-star debut runners are 6-for-27 with a +24 percent HRN Impact and a +139 percent flat-bet profit (ROI). 1-, 2- and 3-star rated horses are a combined 3-for-63.
In this race, the 5-star horses are Strummin and Vinegar Hill. I prefer the latter, as he's a bigger price and has the services of one of my favorite jockeys, Julien Leparoux.
Speaking of Leparoux, he ranks third among all riders by opening-day wins the last three years. Check out the thread below for other opening weekend-related jockey and trainer stats.
Race 6 starts both the stakes action and the late Pick 5, and I have a stone-cold single in the form of Doncho, who has impressed in two lifetime victories in as many starts. What's what's especially impressive is that despite a fast debut he did not appear to regress and has plenty of time into this first stakes and added-distance test.
I'm very eager to see how the betting shakes out here because Doncho would be one of the biggest bets of my life as the 5-2 second choice on the morning line, but I think he'll be closer to 3-2. I guess seven furlongs is a mild question mark being by Mo Town out of a Henny Hughes mare, but his Ragozin Figures just tower over this group. The key will be letting him settle as the Brisnet Pace Ratings indicate a mid-pack trip against these is more ideal versus trying to bottom out the field.
Race 9 is the Ashland, the first Grade 1 of the stand, and it is a highly competitive Kentucky Oaks prep in which the money will clearly flow toward the top two morning line choices Impel at 2-1 and Just F Y I at 3-1. The former is a rising star for trainer Brad Cox,, and the latter is the champion Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner making her 3-year-old debut. Neither would shock, but I expect both will be overbet. See my fair odds above.
I'm going to lean most here on Candied, Halina's Forte and Jody's Pride to defeat a pair that could have about three-eighths of the win pool between them.
I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the $3 all-turf Pick 3 that includes races 5, 8 and 10. The middle leg is the Transylvania Stakes (G3) with the bookends being 1 3/16-mile maiden affairs. I'll want to be really right in one of the three races and allow myself to spread in the other two. I think Justdeny in the nightcap is the best value play among the three races given the 9-2 morning line.