Keeneland: Which riders deliver the most value this fall?
With Keeneland's fall meet opening this week, handicappers should review the jockey colony's spring meet statistics to uncover patterns and betting value. Jose Ortiz dominated the spring standings with 18 wins and a 17.5% win rate.
Luis Saez tied Ortiz with 18 wins with an impressive 48.7% HRN impact percentage. His performance has been consistently above expectations on both surfaces.
Vincent Cheminaud stands out with limited starts but strong results, winning three races. His 201.3% HRN impact shows he significantly outperformed expectations on his limited opportunities.
Several other jockeys have posted strong numbers, including Flavien Prat with 20 wins and a 22.5% strike rate, though his HRN impact remains slightly negative at -1.1%.
| Jockey | Starts | Wins | Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ortiz | 103 | 18 | 17.5% | 2.9% |
| Luis Saez | 79 | 18 | 22.8% | 48.7% |
| Flavien Prat | 89 | 20 | 22.5% | -1.1% |
| Irad Ortiz Jr. | 94 | 16 | 17.0% | -15.1% |
| Brian Hernandez Jr. | 56 | 7 | 12.5% | 4.3% |
| Joel Rosario | 54 | 6 | 11.1% | -27.4% |
| Luan Machado | 74 | 5 | 6.8% | -9.3% |
| Edgar Morales | 48 | 4 | 8.3% | 3.5% |
| Ben Curtis | 35 | 4 | 11.4% | 23.2% |
| Gerardo Corrales | 30 | 4 | 13.3% | 67.7% |
| John Velazquez | 53 | 3 | 5.7% | -57.4% |
| Vincent Cheminaud | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 201.3% |
Main track leaders show varied performance levels
Jose Ortiz led the dirt standings with 13 wins for a 19.1% win rate. His main-track performance shows a positive 9.6% HRN impact, indicating solid value for bettors on the dirt.
Flavien Prat tied with Ortiz on the main track with 13 wins, posting a 24.1% win rate. But his -11.5% HRN impact suggests he might be slightly overbet on dirt.
Several jockeys with fewer starts have posted strong main track numbers. Walter Rodriguez stands out with three wins and an impressive 109.9% HRN impact, showing significant value when he gets dirt mounts.
| Jockey | Dirt starts |
Dirt wins |
Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Ortiz | 68 | 13 | 19.1% | 9.6% |
| Flavien Prat | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | -11.5% |
| Luis Saez | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 45.7% |
| Irad Ortiz Jr. | 60 | 9 | 15.0% | -27.1% |
| Brian Hernandez Jr. | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 20.3% |
| Joel Rosario | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | -6.5% |
| Luan Machado | 51 | 4 | 7.8% | -7.5% |
| Walter Rodriguez | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 109.9% |
| Edgar Morales | 35 | 2 | 5.7% | -35.3% |
| Vincent Cheminaud | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 178.3% |
| Manuel Franco | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 28.2% |
| Adam Beschizza | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 59.4% |
| Corey Lanerie | 22 | 1 | 4.5% | -36.4% |
| Junior Alvarado | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | -13.6% |
| John Velazquez | 20 | 1 | 5.0% | -73.8% |
| Lanfranco Dettori | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 75.9% |
| Julien Leparoux | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 76.2% |
| Axel Concepcion | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 39.4% |
| Mario Gutierrez | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 79.3% |
| Joseph Ramos | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | -11.1% |
Turf specialists emerge at Keeneland meet
Irad Ortiz Jr. led the turf standings with seven wins for a 20.6% strike rate. His grass performance shows a 7.6% HRN impact, indicating better value on turf compared to his overall numbers.
Flavien Prat found success on turf tying with seven wins and a 20.0% win rate. His turf performance carries a 26.5% HRN impact, showing he provides better value on grass than dirt.
Several jockeys have shown strong turf form with limited opportunities. Edgar Morales stood out with two wins and an impressive 158.7% HRN impact.
Complete rankings are listed below.
| Jockey | Turf starts |
Turf wins |
Win % | HRN Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irad Ortiz Jr | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 7.6% |
| Flavien Prat | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 26.5% |
| Luis Saez | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 55.2% |
| Jose Ortiz | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | -11.2% |
| Ben Curtis | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 97.8% |
| Edgar Morales | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 158.7% |
| John Velazquez | 33 | 2 | 6.1% | -37.8% |
| Juan Hernandez | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 207.5% |
| Corey Lanerie | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 253.8% |
| Vincent Cheminaud | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 261.0% |
| Gerardo Corrales | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 109.8% |
| Luan Machado | 23 | 1 | 4.3% | -15.9% |
| Joel Rosario | 28 | 1 | 3.6% | -65.7% |
| Florent Geroux | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | -11.2% |
| Christopher Emigh | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1193.3% |
| Manuel Franco | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 20.8% |
| Sophie Doyle | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| Paco Lopez | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 314.3% |
| Angel Serpa | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| Jaime Torres | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |