Keeneland: See expert picks for the $1 million Turf Mile
The Grade 1, $1 million Turf Mile is one of the features of the Keeneland meet. The race not only offers a seven-figure purse, but also an automatic berth into the Breeders' Cup Mile for its winner. It perennially draws a classy, international field and this year's version is no different.
The race drew a field of nine including stateside turf-division leader Up to the Mark, who makes his first start for trainer Todd Pletcher since winning the Manhattan (G1) in June. The leading international runner, and the likely favorite, is Master of the Seas. Trained by Charlie Appleby, Master of the Seas makes his second North American start after dominating the Woodbine Mile (G1) on Sept. 16.
Here is how Horse Racing Nation writers plan to play Saturday's Turf Mile at Keeneland.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 1 Master of the Seas
On the board: No. 5 Up to the Mark
Long shot I like: No. 3 Stitched
Analysis: I expect the public to bet this race pretty efficiently. That is to say, thanks to takeout, I'm not sure there will be any value. If there is, though, it will be because Up to the Mark is overbet, making Master of the Seas playable if he drifts. If both take gobs of money then Stitched could be worth a look as a front-end threat.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: No. 5 Up to the Mark
On the board: No. 1 Master of the Seas, No. 7 Atone
Long shot I like: No. 8 Harlan Estate
Analysis: On paper this looks like no contest with Up to the Mark enjoying a mismatch. But the Keeneland turf is not paper, and it was the only track where this colt raced this year and did not win. I will write that off to the wide trip home and say he is the most likely winner Saturday. Master of The Seas brings the Charlie Appleby cachet and a Woodbine Mile win into the States not to mention a powerful turn of foot late. Atone's fourth in the Mint Millions (G3) was better than it looks on first blush in the PPs, and if you consider the hill 'n' dale nature of that course and the distances he has run this year, this will feel like a beneficial cutback in distance. Harlan Estate could upset the bread-pudding cart, especially when taking a close look at his closing-speed numbers.
Jarrod Horak, Today's Best Bet
Winner: No. 1 Master of the Seas
On the board: No. 5 Up to the Mark
Long shot I like: No. 7 Atone
Analysis: Master Of the Seas was strong in his last two stakes scores at one mile on turf. He can make it three straight. Up to the Mark is trying to qualify for the Breeders' Cup Mile. The talented returnee might want more ground. Atone handles this trip and might move up in his third start after a layoff.
Wagers: No. 1 to win, exacta 1-5, trifecta key 1/4-5-7-9, superfecta 1-5/1-5/4-7-9/4-7-9
Mark Midland, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 5 Up to the Mark
On the board: No. 1 Master of the Seas
Long shot I like: No. 8 Harlan Estate
Analysis: Up to the Mark has been outstanding this year, including wins in the Turf Classic (G1) before the Kentucky Derby and the Manhattan before the Belmont. There's no reason to bail on him now. Let's watch him do his thing and hopefully he can hold off Master of the Seas for the win.
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 9 Annapolis
On the board: No. 1 Master of the Seas, No. 5 Up to the Mark
Long shot I like: No. 6 English Bee
Analysis: Annapolis, last year's winner, is a pace-versatile mile specialist who should be the right price, both because of a troubled trip last time at Kentucky Downs and with the presence of Master of the Seas and Up to the Mark in this spot. Woodbine Mile winner Master of the Seas fits the profile of a live Charlie Appleby shipper, though he has to overcome a rail draw. Up to the Mark is the class of the Americans, though he still has to prove that he can win at only a mile against this quality of company. English Bee is as good as he has ever been; he is a one-mile specialist with tactical speed, and though he steps up from restricted stakes company he is fast enough to be a factor against these tougher foes.