Keeneland: Get expert picks for the Queen Elizabeth II
Sophomore fillies take center stage Saturday at Keeneland in the Grade 1, $600,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup. The 1 1/8-mile grass race drew a strong field of runners from both sides of the Atlantic.
The likely favorite is Mawj, a Godolphin color-bearer for trainer Saeed bin Suroor, who makes her first start since winning the 1,000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket in May. Elusive Princess and Lindy have also had productive careers in Europe, though each has had a stateside preparation for this race. From the American side, leaders include Dueling Grounds Oaks winner Freydis the Red and Appalachian (G2) winner Papilio.
This is how writers at Horse Racing Nation plan to play the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.
Ed DeRosa, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 4 Mawj
On the board: No. 13 Freydis the Red
Long shot I like: No. 7 Sounds of Heaven
Analysis: I have to draw a line somewhere on how low of odds I'm willing to take on no. 4 Mawj, and where that line is depends on who scratches from this race. If it's someone that allows no. 13 Freydis the Red to draw in then I would want her to be a part of my wagering strategy. If she does not draw in then I'm hoping for 6-5 on Mawj and will play exactas with the other international horses, no. 7 Sounds of Heaven and no. 8 Elounda Queen.
Ron Flatter, Ron Flatter Racing Pod
Winner: No. 6 Lindy
On the board: No. 2 Elusive Princess, No. 4 Mawj
Long shot I like: No. 10 Liguria
Analysis: There is no shame in losing to Blue Rose Cen, the only horse to beat Lindy going less than 1 5/16 miles. That was the distance of her only race in which she finished off the board. It feels like nine furlongs are in her wheelhouse, but I guess we will learn together Saturday. The same goes for Mawj, who went hammer and tong in a great duel with Tahiyra to win the 1,000 Guineas. My concern here is the long layoff since. Still, her talent should get her in the money as it should with Elusive Princess, who cuts back to 1 1/8 miles off her Saratoga Oaks victory that might not have come against the stiffest of competition. Liguria is worth a look because she has been so close in most of her losses, even her fourth-place finish last month in New York.
Jarrod Horak, Today's Best Bet
Winner: No. 4 Mawj
On the board: No. 2 Elusive Princess
Long shot I like: No. 1 Mission of Joy
Analysis: Mawj edged Tahiyra in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket on May 7 and they were well clear of the rest, and the latter has won a pair of Group 1 races since. She looks classier than these. Elusive Princess was sharp in the Saratoga Oaks. She would appreciate some give in the ground. Mission of Joy won a pair of Grade 3 races earlier this year. She can land a share at long odds.
Wagers: No. 4 to win, exacta box 2-4, trifecta 2-4/1-2-4-5/1-2-4-5
Reinier Macatangay, Setting the Pace
Winner: No. 6 Lindy
On the board: No. 2 Elusive Princess, No. 4 Mawj
Long shot I like: No. 1 Mission of Joy
Analysis: Lindy's two runner-up finishes to Blue Rose Cen earlier this year in the Prix de la Grotte (G3) and Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (G1) gave Lindy credibility because Blue Rose Cen went on to capture the Prix de Diane (G1). Lindy faded to eighth in the same race, but she was up close to the pace and found the 1 5/16-mile distance too far. She then made a successful transition to America by winning an optional claiming race at Kentucky Downs for her new trainer Brendan Walsh. If Lindy can take a step forward off that win at Kentucky Downs and run faster, then she can beat her European counterparts.
Win: 6, at 9/2 or longer
Trifecta: 6 over 2,4,7 over 2,4,7
Rowan Ward, Horse Racing Nation
Winner: No. 10 Liguria
On the board: No. 4 Mawj, No. 6 Lindy
Long shot I like: No. 13 Freydis the Red
Analysis: Though the horses who have run in Europe are classy and talented, that has happened before and trainers based in America – particularly Chad Brown – win this race more often than not. Brown chose to keep Liguria in the field, and both his acumen and Liguria's pedigree make this nine-furlong spot an interesting place to trust in America's top turf trainer at a price. Within a deep and talented group of horses who started in Europe, the ones most likely to work an in-range trip include Lindy, who is Group 1-placed in France but comes off a win at Kentucky Downs, and Mawj, who makes her first start since winning the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. Freydis the Red may be ignored off the also-eligible list, but she has the stamina and she has proven she can get a piece no matter how the pace unfolds.