Ky. Jockey Club fair odds: Derby points race offers value

Jonathan's Way is unquestionably the horse to beat in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club on Saturday at Churchill Downs, but he likely will be overbet off a seventh-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to snap his two-race unbeaten streak.

Jonathan's Way was far out of it when chasing gate-to-wire winner and likely champion 2-year-old male Citizen Bull, but he was running strongly late to earn a 106 Brisnet late-pace rating. That his previous two wins came from both off the pace and gate to wire speaks to his tactical nature, but I just can't get past that maybe he does not want to go this far. If that's the case, then he will either be too close to the pace or be left with too much to do a la the Juvenile. 

He's Not Joking, 8-1 on the morning line, was super impressive when winning the Grey Stakes (G3) in his first start around two turns. That was on Tapeta, so this will be his dirt debut. But I'm not concerned about the surface given his pedigree by Practical Joke out of a Central Banker mare. I'm a little concerned about his future beyond 8 1/2 furlongs, but that is not a factor here with the rail draw.

First Resort deserves a mulligan for his one-turn mile turf try last out. The 9-2 morning line is a little light for my tastes, but if they overbet Jonathan's Way, then this one could be the drifter worth a play. Similarly, Tiztastic needs things to go his way as a closer, but if his price goes up from the 5-1 morning line, then he's worth a try to get underneath.