KDBC Contest Cash Recap
Beyond the roses, juleps and big hats, 53 players played in the first ever Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge (“KDBC”) by TwinSpires.com (Click here to get a TwinSpires account and $100 Free!)
The two-day tournament, modeled after the Breeders Cup Betting challenge, came with a hefty $20k entry for qualifiers or buy-ins. Of the $20k, $15k consisted of a live bankroll with the remaining $5k going to expenses and prize pool. The only requirements included bets in five races totaling $1,200 each Friday and five races with bets totaling $1,800 in five races on Saturday. For the ease of explanation, I refer to these as the “mandatory races” even though they could be any race.
Friday:
My strategy Friday was to survive the mandatory races and then take shots with bets lower than the $1,200 threshold. Worst case, in my mind, would be a finish Friday of $10k. With first post of 10:30am, my goal was to post a couple scores and thus I played the first two races on Friday’s card at the $1,200 level. I was lucky to break even after picking up exactas with my “saver tickets”.
After a series of chalky finishes and losing bets, I had $10k remaining, going into the Oaks. My main play for the day was going to be Lewis Bay. Despite already closing in on $10k I bet $1k to win along with the filly keyed on top a couple exactas and trifectas.
After blanking the Oaks, I ended up with a total of $8k in 39th place.
Saturday:
While disappointed with my Friday bets, the leader was at $34k and 10th place was only at $15k. Therefore, one good early score would get me right in the mix of things.
The question was where to find that score. The first race was a weak field with little chance of a price. The second was where I thought a price could be had. I liked the form pattern of the 9 and also the fact he had beaten Creator, a Derby horse, to break his maiden. At 18-1, the price was right given the field was without a standout. My $500 to win and place along with $370 to show netted me $13,408 and vaulted me up to fifth place, right in the midst of things. I missed on a couple exotics including a last second swapping of the 4 for the 7 which cost me the trifecta. The show bet was thrown in to make the minimum of $1,800. Although looking back I should have put that on the nose, I was still concerned with having some $ left to take shots in the Derby which was still 10 races away.
After treading water until the 6th race, I thought there was a good chance to use Tepin to put a mandatory race behind me. It’s always my preference to put the “mandatory races” behind me in live bankroll so I can attack a race with flexibility. My initial thought was to play $1,740 to show on Tepin and 50c tri with All (ex Tepin)/ All (ex Tepin)/All (ex Tepin). This would provide me some insurance on the show bet and get me through the mandatory. However, after checking the board, I was surprised the 9, Chad Brown’s horse wasn’t second favorite. I changed gears and ended up playing a $500 Exacta 1-9 and then a $50 tri 1/9/3 along with a show bet on Tepin.
Fortunately, I was able to pick up $4,600 in a race that looked like a poor betting race and a good example of how you can often can still make money in races with prohibitive favorites by using overlaid horses in the exacta and trifecta.
With three “mandatory races” remaining, it looked like a good spot to load up on Tepin to show.
The race I was pointing to the entire day was the 11th where I loved Divisidero’s (#8) chances at the 15-1 ML. Clearly the ML was a poor one as he went off at 5-1. Even at the depressed price, I thought he was the horse I thought had the best chance in that race. Clearly he was pointing all spring to the race while other shorter priced horses, including Big Blue Kitten, were coming off the bench.
My initial bets included $1000 to win on the 8 along with a $100 exacta
Getting ready to head out to watch the race in the grandstand, after watching the post parade, I thought that 8 was on his toes and looked great. I went back to the machine and played, what I thought, was $100 exacta 8 over 3/4/11/12. Unfortunately, in my rush to get outside, I mistakenly punched the 8 on the top and bottom!
Despite the mishap, I still ended up with a great result winning $14,490 and in the process taking the lead in the tournament with one race to play.
The next race, and final for the tournament, was the Kentucky Derby. This meant the prospect of balloon prices. In my mind, there was little doubt that my nearly $3,500 lead was tenuous at best. The good news was I had nearly an hour to plan a strategy.
At this point, my thinking was to come up with the biggest risks to me in protecting the lead.
- Large Payout: No lead is safe with the potential for a five-figure exacta payout even for those with little money left at this point;
- Large Bet: Those with over $10k had enough to blow past me even with a large win wager on Nyquist;
Coming into the Derby I really liked Exaggerator and Nyquist. I thought the large payout was a greater risk than a large bet. Since there was no great way to protect against the large payout I thought the most prudent course of action was to stand pat. Luckily I had made all of my “mandatory bets” and thus had the flexibility to do what I had wanted. In the back of my mind, I knew that by standing pat that it was highly likely I wouldn’t win. However, standing pat would give me the best chance of a second ($65k) or third place finish ($35k). If there was a large bet, I thought the most likely choices would be Nyquist, Exaggerator or Gun Runner.
In the heat of the decision process I also realized that I was quite alive in both the pick 5 and in the race for 5 of 6 in the pick 6. The combined payouts, including Exaggerator/Nyquist/Outwork and Mor Spirit ranged from low five figures to low six figures. Of course this threw a new, rather positive, spin on the entire picture. After much deliberation I ended up betting $430 with a smattering of horses that I thought had a chance to win outside of my pick 5/6 and also a $3 trifecta involving my top choice, Exaggerator. At the end of the day, I wasn’t going to beat myself.
As I got ready to leave the tournament room, Lucky Kalanges, Twin Spires Marketing Director, asked if they could film me for the last race. I told him that I have no real horse in the race and am just looking to hold on to the lead. Honestly, I had no one other than a chalky finish to hope for, and even then I thought I could still be beaten out of first if someone was willing to make the large bet.
As it turns out, that someone was Ron Myeress who astutely made a great play with what I believe was a large bet on Nyquist and won the tournament.
Of course its easy to second guess yourself, however I guess I should have bet a couple hundred on a Nyqusit/Exaggerator exacta box. Despite not winning the contest, a six figure payout is still something I am tremendously happy with from a tournament perspective. On top of that I was able to pull out another $38k hitting both the pick five and the pick six, five of six, three times!
Recap and Thoughts
For those who enjoy the Derby experience I highly recommend the KDBC if they bring it back next year. The festivities started on Thursday with a welcome reception in the Mansion which is out of this world nice. The team of Gary Palmasino and Lucky Kalanges did a great job to pull off what was likely a logistically difficult feat holding the tournament during the craziness that is the Derby. This included getting press passes for all of the players requiring laptops in order to avoid the stringent security limitations on those visiting Churchill Downs. Total handle for the tournament was $1.3 million which has to be considered a success. However, my guess is that going forward there will be a requirement to play a % of your bankroll on the KY Derby similar to the Keeneland Grade One Gamble.
Garett Skiba
About Garett:
This was Garett’s second six figure score, the first being his 3rd place finish in the 2013 BCBC. Despite the strong 2nd pace in the Kentucky Derby tournament, he will be skipping the Preakness and focusing on the Belmont. Follow his thoughts and tournament action @multiracewagers