Justify offspring stats reveal clear betting angles

Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner, has established himself as a promising young sire with 12 graded stakes winners from his first three crops of runners. Standing at Ashford Stud in Kentucky, his stud fee was $250,000 for the 2025 breeding season, reflecting his status as one of the most sought-after young stallions in North America. His racing career was brief but spectacular: he won six races in 111 days including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes before being retired undefeated.

With over $26 million in progeny earnings in North America from 1,634 starts, Justify's offspring are demonstrating versatility and class. His runners have compiled a solid 16.1% win rate overall with strong Horse Racing Nation speed figures averaging 91 across all surfaces and distances.

Surface analysis: Dirt dominance with synthetic promise

Justify's progeny have shown their strongest performance on dirt surfaces, where they excel with an 18.6% win rate and earn significantly more per start than on other surfaces.

The data reveals that Justify's runners perform nearly as well on synthetic surfaces (19.2% win rate) as they do on dirt (18.6%), both significantly outperforming their turf efforts (12.7%). The synthetic surface also produces the highest average HRN speed figures at 93, though with a much smaller sample size of 120 starts compared to 805 dirt starts.

Distance preferences: Routes provide higher earnings

Justify's offspring show effectiveness at both sprint and route distances, though with notable differences in win percentages and earnings patterns.

While Justify's progeny win more frequently in sprints (19.2% vs. 14.6%), they earn nearly $4,000 more per start in route races and produce higher HRN speed figures (92 vs. 88). The route category also accounts for 11 of his 14 graded stakes wins, suggesting his higher-class offspring excel in the more prestigious races over longer distances.

A dirt route preference should mean that Justify is well positioned to produce a classic-winning heir. On the Kentucky Derby trail, he has was represented by American Promise this year, who won the Virginia Derby and finished 16th in the run for the roses. Others include Just a Touch and Verifying, back-to-back runners-up in the Blue Grass (G1) and Just Steel, runner-up in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Just Steel and Just a Touch finished 17th and 20th, respectively, in the 2024 Derby, while Verifying ran 16th in 2023. Justify has had a son compete in the Kentucky Derby every year since they have been eligible, so a win is possible. His own sire, Scat Daddy, had died by 2018 when he was represented by four sons in the Kentucky Derby: Justify, Flameaway, Combatant and Mendelssohn.

Surface and distance combinations: Synthetic routes excel

Splitting up performance by both surface and distance reveals specific areas where Justify's offspring are strong.

The most impressive category is synthetic routes, where Justify's offspring win at a remarkable 22.2% rate despite a limited sample of 90 starts. None of these wins are in stakes, but this pattern is worth keeping in mind while betting the next Turfway meet. Dirt sprints also show excellent results at 21.0%, making these the two standout categories from a win rate perspective.

It is also notable that his dirt route runners earn the most per start at $22,302, reflecting success in higher-value stakes races. 

Detailed distance analysis: Longer distances produce higher figures

A granular examination of specific distance ranges shows how Justify's progeny perform across the racing spectrum.

Justify's offspring show their highest win percentage (24.5%) at distances shorter than six furlongs, though this drops at longer distances. However, both average speed figures and earnings per start increase substantially at longer distances, with runners going beyond nine furlongs producing outstanding HRN figures of 101 and earnings of $35,225 per start.

Gender analysis: Fillies and mares outperform in earnings

The performance comparison between male and female offspring reveals interesting patterns in Justify's progeny.

While win percentages are nearly identical between genders, female offspring earn significantly more per start ($18,575 vs. $14,099) despite males producing higher average speed figures. Females account for 10 of Justify's 14 graded stakes wins, explaining the higher earnings differential. Two of his Grade 1-winning fillies did so in the 2023 Breeders' Cup: Hard to Justify in the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Just F Y I in the Juvenile Fillies. Stellify won the Ladies Marathon this year at Kentucky Downs with its $2 million purse. 

Off track performance: Wet conditions favor routes

Justify's offspring adapt well to wet track conditions, showing solid performance across different surfaces over rain-affected tracks.

Performance on wet tracks remains strong, particularly in dirt route wet conditions where runners win at a 20.3% rate and earn $29,127 per start. The wet track data includes five graded-stakes wins, indicating these runners maintain their class in challenging conditions, just like their sire did when he won the 2018 Preakness over a sloppy track. 

Development pattern: Steady improvement with experience

Justify's offspring show the typical progression pattern as they gain racing experience.

The progression is clear with win percentage climbing from 14.1% on debut to 19.1% by the third start. Speed figures also improve consistently from 80 to 88, while earnings per start more than double from the debut to the third start, suggesting his progeny become more competitive as they mature and gain experience.

Age comparison: Steady development with time

Analyzing performance by age reveals how Justify's progeny develop throughout their racing careers.

Justify's runners maintain consistent win percentages across age groups while showing steady improvement in speed figures, reaching an average of 96 for the 5-year-old members of his first crop who are still racing in 2025. Justify has no graded-stakes winners over the age of 4 so far, but that improvement with age is worth remembering when playing the daily races. The higher earnings for 2-year-olds reflect success in valuable juvenile stakes races, with six graded stakes wins in this age group, two in the Breeders' Cup.

Future outlook: Established young sire

With his fourth-crop juveniles just beginning their careers, Justify has established himself as a top-tier young sire. His 14 graded-stakes winners in North America include standouts like Arabian Lion, Just F Y I, Just a Touch and Verifying. The strong performance statistics across multiple categories, particularly in route races and on dirt surfaces, suggest his progeny will continue to compete at the highest levels of the sport. Stakes performers like Stellify, Big Truzz and Privman show Justify has momentum headed into this fall and beyond.