Justify and the Triple Crown: 10 Belmont 2018 story lines to know

Ahead of the 2018 Belmont Stakes and Justify's chase for racing immortality in the June 9 race, 10 story lines to know:

Justify stays busy

Going into the Kentucky Derby, conversation about Justify’s favoritism revolved around a lack of foundation having not raced at 2. Could a congested schedule to compensate at age 3 catch up to him in the 1 1/2-mile “Test of a Champion”? Justify will make his sixth start in 112 days in the Belmont, the longest race of his young career.

Baffert by the numbers

With Justify’s Preakness Stakes victory, trainer Bob Baffert tied fellow Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas with 14 Triple Crown series race wins. He could move into the lead if Justify can complete the sweep. Additionally, just one trainer has won two Triple Crowns: "Sunny Jim" Fitzsimmons with Gallant Fox in 1930 and Omaha in 1935. Of course, Baffert’s first Triple Crown came in 2015 with American Pharoah.

Setting the pace

Justify has appeared most vulnerable in his five career starts when pressured early in the Preakness by Good Magic. There, it took a major change in strategy by the 2-year-old champion to shake up the race. The Belmont appears light on pace as well, though the recent addition of Noble Indy to the prospective field could change that. Still, there’s an uncertainty that the Louisiana Derby winner would take it to Justify. He’ll run in Repole Stable silks, but is, as with Justify, co-owned by WinStar Farm.

The Triple Crown asterisk?

Ah, yes. WinStar — along with China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners and Starlight Racing. They also campaign the third-place Kentucky Derby finisher Audible. Depending on who you speak with, that colt is either not training as well as he was weeks ago, or was slowed recently by a muscle strain. Audible’s withdrawal from Belmont consideration caused much consternation about these big-name partnerships. The Todd Pletcher trainee would have been the likely second choice, but by post time will be only a footnote in Justify’s Triple Crown bid.

Still a tall task

Even without Audible in the mix, Justify will have to buck some major history in the Belmont. This stat comes from Chris Fallica, otherwise known as “The Bear” from ESPN’s college football programming: No Triple Crown winner has faced more than seven horses in the Belmont Stakes. On average, the 12 Triple Crown winners have defeated 4.6 horses in the final leg of the series. As of Sunday, Justify is on pace to go up against nine others. American Pharoah faced seven.

Will the track be dry?

For the first time, the Derby and Preakness both ran over sloppy tracks in the same year. As a result, Justify’s speed figures regressed from his previous career-best in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Jimmy Barnes, Baffert’s top assistant, has overseen Justify’s training at Churchill Downs since the colt’s win in the middle jewel. He seems to think the Triple Crown hopeful would benefit from some nice race day weather, saying, “He’s very good on a dry track as well but unfortunately we’ve just been catching wet surfaces. I’ve seen him run on a dry surface and I definitely like what I saw.” 

An unlikely team

Back in 1998, Elliott Walden trained Victory Gallop to runner-up finishes in the Derby and Preakness behind Baffert’s Real Quiet. Victory Gallop turned the tables, however, in the Belmont, denying Real Quiet a Triple Crown by just a nose. Twenty years later, Baffert is training for Walden, who’s now the president and CEO of WinStar. Safe to say the past is in the past.

The fresher horses

Or, to quote California Chrome co-owner Steve Coburn, the “coward’s way out.” We joke, but alas: Four of the last six and 10 of the last 19 Belmont Stakes winners ran in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. That’s not including the filly Rags to Riches, who ran in the Oaks and made her next start the Belmont. This year’s qualifiers include Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Noble Indy and Free Drop Billy. Three of those four are New York-based and running for trainers that have previous Belmont wins. Watch out, Justify.

O’Neill’s first try

Doug O’Neill has trained both a dual classic winner (I’ll Have Another, 2012) and second Kentucky Derby winner (Nyquist, 2016) but has yet to have a starter in the third leg of the Triple Crown series. That’s expected to change this year as he saddles Blended Citizen, who won the Belmont’s local prep, the Grade 3 Peter Pan. Seven horses have completed the Peter Pan-Belmont double, mot recently Tonalist, who in 2014 played spoiler to California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid.

Triple Crowns in bunches

Nyquist was an unbeaten Derby winner, and Always Dreaming last year appeared to be peaking entering the Triple Crown series. Neither won after the Derby, a reminder of how rare a talent American Pharoah was. And now comes Justify, who’s looking to repeat history. Triple Crowns are traditionally swept in bunches. Three horses accomplished the feat in the 1930s; four did it in the 1940s; and Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978) preceded the 37-year drought leading up to Pharoah.