Just a Game Stakes analysis: Solving the Chad Brown puzzle

Chad Brown winning a Grade 1 grass race in New York is a typical occurrence, but in Friday's Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes at Saratoga it is almost a forgone conclusion. Brown saddles five of the seven entrants in the race, all of whom are 6-1 or lower on the morning line.

Narrowing down the best of the bunch might not be as difficult as it appears on paper when one considers Brown's intentions in a race that he can almost entirely control.

Coppice might have the most ability of Brown's five runners. She was chasing some of the very best runners in Europe, including Nashwa and Inspiral, before running a game second when likely best in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs in her U.S. debut. Although Chili Flag narrowly defeated her that day, it is easy to see Coppice turning the tables as she did not break well and was running off of a layoff.

The Distaff Turf Mile gave Chili Flag her second graded-stakes win. Gina Romantica, Whitebeam and Beaute Cachee already are Grade 1 winners for Brown. Coppice, despite the talent she has flashed, does not yet own a graded-stakes victory.

The $500,000 purse of this race is nothing to sneeze at, but a Grade 1 win for breeding purposes is priceless for a filly or mare. Juddmonte cares deeply about their breeding operation and likely sent Coppice to America for an opportunity to capture a Grade 1. Friday is a prime opportunity for Coppice to get this elusive win, and she will be fully cranked.

Keep in mind that Juddmonte's Whitebeam, the morning-line favorite in this race, earned her only Grade 1 win in the 2023 Diana while winning a photo over Brown's heavily favored In Italian. In Italian already was a multiple Grade 1 winner entering that race.

In Italian's first Grade 1 win came in the 2022 Diana against Brown's previously undefeated Bleecker Street, a Grade 1 winner in her own right. It was Beaute Cachee's turn for a Grade 1 in the Jenny Wiley Stakes last out at Keeneland when she controlled an easy pace as the longest price and least accomplished of four Chad Brown runners in that field.

Frankie Dettori, who masterfully rode Beaute Cachee in the Jenny Wiley, chooses to ride Coppice instead in this spot.

There is a trend that favors Coppice, making her strictly the one to beat in the Just a Game Stakes.

Gina Romantica, who loves the distance, and Chili Flag, who has shown great consistency, look like the runners who will complete the Chad Brown trifecta.