Jockey Stats - Who's Hot & Who's Not at Saratoga Part 4

The fourth week has been completed, and the jockey standings, they are a changin’.  Joel Rosario’s success rate is waning, and Javier Castellano has taken total control of the top spot.  Add to the fact that Rosario is planning on riding Game On Dude in the Pacific Classic this coming Sunday, and you can say that he gives up almost all chance in gaining the Saratoga jockey title.  The only jockey that could possibly be in Castellano’s way would be John Velazquez.  Otherwise, it looks like a done deal.

Explanation of terminologies:   W% is self-explanatory.  It will be the wins divided by number of races.  There sometimes would be a difference between the W% as you know it, and what it actually is.  If the jockey is part of an entry, and the other half of the entry wins, the jockey will get credit for the win in the W%, but it won’t be reflected in number of wins.  The Break Point Pct. Is the average payoff translated into a comparable percentage to the W%.  If the W% is greater than the Break Point Pct., the jockey would realize a profit.  Lastly, Track Variance is utilized to evaluate a jockey based on the size of the fields he/she wins in(i.e. extreme example: if two jocks are at 20%, they are initially regarded as equal.  But, if one jockey won in a two-horse race, and the other won in a 20-horse race, their numbers would be 50.000 and 95.000 after that race).  Track Variance is a good gauge for determining the success of the jockey.

Also, after the Who’s Hot/Who’s Not segment, there will be Sprint(up to 6 furlongs on dirt), Middle(6 ½ and 7 furlongs on dirt), Route( beyond one mile on dirt), Inner Turf and Mellon Course standings

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

Criteria for making the grade:  At least (3 wins, W%-5=>Br.Pt.Pct, Track Variance =>14.000), (five 1^st or 2^nd’s,P%-4=>Br.Pt.Pct, Track Variance=>16.000), or( Six 1^st 2^nd, or 3^rd’s, S%-3=>Br.Pt.Pct, Track Variance=>17.000).  For the bad side, at least 20 races, with a Track Variance of -5(5.000), or less.

HOT

Robby Albarado – P.P. 1 has been his most dominant spot, having won 3-of-7, in which he has realized a Win profit.  When the track is rated Off, Albarado is 6-for-7 for Show wagers.

Junior Alvarado – When the conditions are a Fast track, and he’s breaking from PP 5, he’s good for a Place bet, cashing in 5-for-9.  He’s profitable for a Win bet on the Inner Turf, PP’s 2-3(3-for-8) and Mellon Course, PP’s 3-4(4-for-4).

Shaun Bridgmohan – PP 4 has returned a Win profit(3-for-11).

Javier Castellano – The kingpin at the current meet, he provides many Hot opportunities.  On a Fast track, PP’s 3-5 has returned a Place profit(17-for-33) and a Show profit for PP’s 4 & 6(16-for-23).  On an Off track, his Show bets are a winning one(15-for-21). PP 2 in a Sprint race is good for Show profitability(6-for-9).  He is in the black when placing a Show bet on a Middle race(21-for-32).  On the Inner Turf, he’s profitable in the Win and Place categories(58-16-10-5).  Turf race, PP 1(15-5-3-2), good for Win, Place, and Show.  Other Turf race PP’s 4(14-6-2-1, good for Win and Place) 6(11-2-3-2, good for Show), and 8(8-2-0-4, also good for Show).

Jose Lezcano – On a Route race on a Fast track, he’s 3-for-10, good for a Win bet.  He’s worth a Win bet when the race is on Turf, and PP 3(3-for-9).  Lastly, when it’s PP 3, he’s good for a Place or Show bet(19-4-5-2).

Rajiv Maragh - When running in a Sprint race(6 furlongs or less), and he’s breaking from PP 7, he is unscathed, going 3-for-3 in the win column.  A Show wager in a Sprint race would keep you in the profit column(16-for-25).

Rosie Napravnik - Across-the-board(WPS) in a Sprint race on a Fast track, is lucrative(19-6-4-3).  PP 4 on a Fast track has been rewarding from a Win perspective(3-for-7).    Another across-the-board(WPS) would be beneficial(12-4-1-2) from PP 7.

Irad Ortiz - Breaking from PP’s 1-2, in all races, a Show wager would be in-the-money(22-for-35).

Jose Ortiz - When he’s breaking from PP 4 on the Turf, you’d be on the upside(3-for-8) for a Win bet return.  From PP 2 on the Turf, your Show bet would be in the black(7-for-11).

NOT

Robby Albarado – PP’s 2-12 is 1-for-30.

Junior Alvarado – When riding in a Sprint(up to 6 furlongs on dirt) race, he’s 1-for-20.  PP’s 8-12 has yet to yield a winner in 22 tries.

Shaun Bridgmohan – In Turf races, from PP’s 4-12, Bridgmohan is 1-for-23.

Javier Castellano – In Sprint races, he’s 3-for-45.

Jose Espinoza – PP’s 2-4 is 1-for-22.

Alan Garcia – is 2-for-28 overall.

Jose Lezcano – is 2-for-48 on races under a mile on dirt.

Rajiv Maragh – Has not fared well on Turf races(1-for-65) and when breaking from PP’s 3-5(1-for-41).

Rosie Napravnik – Rosie’s successful trip to Arlington(winning the Secretariat Stakes aboard Admiral Kitten) proved to undo her huckleberry of Turf race failures, though she still has difficulty with the Mellon Course(1-for-27).

Without further delay, the following charts for Travers Day:

SPRINT(up to 6 furlongs on the dirt)

MIDDLE(6 ½ to 7 furlongs on the dirt)

ROUTE(All races beyond a mile on dirt)

INNER TURF