Jockey Stats - Who's Hot & Who's Not at Saratoga Part 3

The third full week has come to a close, and we are in the heart of the meet.  Joel Rosario’s lead has diminished to one win, and he is on the verge of being overtaken, since he was handed a suspension for a careless ride in the Adirondack Stakes this past Sunday aboard Who’s In Town(the suspension will either be 7-day, or 3-day, depending on whether he appeals, or not, and doesn’t win his appeal).   On July 28, trainer Bob Baffert’s camp announced that Joel Rosario would be riding Game On Dude in the Pacific Classic on August 25 at Del Mar.  Last year Rosario won this race on Dullahan, beating Game On Dude.  The irony with this is, that Dullahan is also in this race.  Trainer Dale Romans, trainer of Dullahan, was asked about the news of Rosario riding Game On Dude, to which he replied, “No one monkey stops my show." I don’t believe Rosario will be riding any of Romans’ horses in the near future.  And, I’m curious if this move may have shaken some of the Saratoga trainers’ thoughts about his reliability.  

 John Velazquez got a rejuvenation in his riding game, with an awesome win aboard Wise Dan in the Fourstardave Handicap over a turf course rated “Good”, on Saturday.  He followed that up with a 5-win day the next day, and now he is in the thick of the race.  He can provide a good example of my Track Variance.  When you look at the standings, you’ll notice he’s in a close-up 3^rd place, but because he’s had nearly 40 less races, his Track Variance is higher than the two jockeys that are in front of him, so, he would be the better jockey, based on his Track Variance number.

Explanation of terminologies:   W% is self-explanatory.  It will be the wins divided by number of races.  There sometimes would be a difference between the W% as you know it, and what it actually is.  If the jockey is part of an entry, and the other half of the entry wins, the jockey will get credit for the win in the W%, but it won’t be reflected in number of wins.  The Break Point Pct. Is the average payoff translated into a comparable percentage to the W%.  If the W% is greater than the Break Point Pct., the jockey would realize a profit.  Lastly, Track Variance is utilized to evaluate a jockey based on the size of the fields he/she wins in(i.e. extreme example: if two jocks are at 20%, they are initially regarded as equal.  But, if one jockey won in a two-horse race, and the other won in a 20-horse race, their numbers would be 50.000 and 95.000 after that race).  Track Variance is a good gauge for determining the success of the jockey.

Also, after the Who’s Hot/Who’s Not segment, there will be Fast and Off Track standings(all races on the dirt track), to possibly get some insight into any jockeys that may seem to have a flair for the off going(though there aren’t too many races that have been Sloppy, Good, or Muddy, there are some noticeable differences).  Lastly, we’ll list the best times at the meet.

WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT

Criteria for making the grade:  At least (3 wins, W%-5=>Br.Pt.Pct, Track Variance =>14.000), (five 1^st or 2^nd’s,P%-4=>Br.Pt.Pct, Track Variance=>16.000), or( Six 1^st 2^nd, or 3^rd’s, S%-3=>Br.Pt.Pct, Track Variance=>17.000).  For the bad side, at least 20 races, with a Track Variance of -5(5.000), or less.

HOT

Robby Albarado – P.P. 1 has been his most dominant spot, having won 3-of-7, in which he has realized a Win profit.  Didn’t ride last week at Saratoga.  He is scheduled to ride at Arlington this next weekend for Million day.  If there is no mounts this week at Saratoga, he won’t be listed next week.

Junior Alvarado – He is 5-for-11 in profitable Place bets on all Middle(6 ½ to 7 furlongs) distance races.

Javier Castellano – Vying for the top spot.  Soon to overcome.  For enriching Show bets, when the conditions are:   Fast track, PP 4, “Java” is 6-for-9 ; Off track, 13-for-17; Sprint(up to 6 furlongs) on dirt, 23-for-38; Middle(6 ½ to 7 furlongs) on dirt, 15-for-24.  For a winning bet across the board, and the conditions are:  Turf race, PP 1, 12-4-3-1.  Other winning bets:  Turf race, PP 4, 10-4-1-1(Win and Place); and, PP 6, 18-4-5-3(Place and Show).

Jose Lezcano – He has been worth a Win bet when the conditions are:  a Route(over a mile) race on dirt on a Fast track(3-for-9), or PP 3 on the Turf(3-for-8).

Rajiv Maragh - When running in a Sprint race(6 furlongs or less), and he’s breaking from PP 7, he is unscathed, going 3-for-3 in the win column.  A show wager in a Sprint race would keep you in the profit column(15-for-22).

Rosie Napravnik – Across-the-board(WPS) in a Sprint race is lucrative(20-6-3-4).  Rosie didn’t have much participation this week, due to an invite to an international jockey challenge across the pond at Ascot race track across the pond.  Congrats, Rosie, for being honored.

Irad Ortiz – Breaking from PP’s 1-2, in all races, a Show wager would be in-the-money(18-for-27).

Jose Ortiz – When he’s breaking from PP 4 on the Turf, you’d be on the upside(3-for-7) for a Win bet return.

Joel Rosario – Since he has several conditions that are profitable, we’ll group likewise bets together:  Win – Sprint(up to 6 furlongs) on dirt, and the track is rated “Off”(3-for-6); PP 3 in a Sprint race(3-for-7).  Place and Show – PP 1 on a Fast track(10-0-5-2).  Place – When track is rated “Off”(7-for-14).  Win, Place and Show – PP 1 on the Turf(15-5-2-3).  Show – Inner Turf(27-for-45); PP 5 on the Turf(6-for-9).

Luis Saez - 3-for-11 from PP 9, in wins, realizing a Win bet profit.

Alex Solis – PP 4 in all races is worth a Win bet(3-for-9).

Cornelio Velasquez – PP 3 on the Turf, is worth a Win bet(3-for-10).

John Velazquez – Win, Place and Show – PP 4 on a Fast track(8-5-1-2); Fast track(47-16-9-6); Middle(6 ½ to 7 furlongs) races on dirt(21-7-4-2).  Show – Route(over a mile) races on dirt(9-for-12).  Win – PP 6(6-for-18).

NOT

Jose Espinoza – PP’s 2-5(1-for-30).

Jose Lezcano – Fast track(4-for-41) and any dirt race under a mile(1-for-38).

Rajiv Maragh – Wearing the collar on Turf races(0-for-48) and when breaking from PP’s 3-5(0-for-29).

Rosie Napravnik – Races beyond 6 furlongs on dirt(0-for-22) and Turf races(2-for-50).

Irad Ortiz – Turf races has yielded 2-for-35.

Joseph Rocco – Another jockey that has not fared well on Turf(2-for-41).

Luis Saez – His huckleberry, thus far, is dirt races(3-for-62).  He also continues his stark contrast on PP’s across the track.  PP’s 1-8(3-for-103) vs. PP’s 9-12(6-for-21).

Alex Solis – Can’t get his groove thing going on PP’s 5-9(0-for-21).

John Velazquez – Nonproductive numbers when conditions are Turf race and PP’s 7-11(0-for-20).

OFF TRACK STUDY

This past week brought some adverse weather that affected the track, producing some off track conditions.  Though there hasn’t been a large accumulation of numbers, the numbers that have been produced do show some jockeys excelled at these conditions. 

When a jockey is undergoing the conditions of the race, they have to do their normal, important chores, of navigating their horse through the race, always being aware of the positions of the other horses, and evaluating their progression, or regression of the other horses, in regards to their horse.  When the conditions are off going, he/she has to wear multiple pairs of goggles, and “flip” the goggles when they become covered with mud, all the while keeping the immediate matter at hand, the position of the other horses.  To be able to accomplish this feat successfully, the jockey has to be multi-tasking.  The quicker, the better(much like a NASCAR team taking less time to pit stop).  So, the following is the standings for Fast tracks and Off tracks:

FAST

OFF

Before I close for this week, I thought I’d mention that when racing resumes on Wednesday, it will mark the countdown to Travers Day as being 10 days away.  For the next report, I will show the standings for all dirt races as I have them classified:  Sprint(up to 6 furlongs), Middle(6 ½ to 7 furlongs), and Route(any race beyond one mile), as well as the Inner Turf and Mellon Course standings, to provide you with all jockey info ammo for your big Travers handicapping day(I know, the horse wins the race).  Good luck, and enjoy your summer.  Lastly, the best, thus far, for 2013:

SARATOGA’S BEST FOR 2013(Thru 8/13)

By CauseForConcern A/K/A  Brian Bradley