Jockey Stats - Who's Hot & Who's Not at Saratoga Part 2
As the second full week comes to a close at Saratoga, the top three jockeys from the first week are standing pat in their positions atop the jockey standings, with Joel Rosario maintaining his 3-win margin from Week One. The standings have been condensed, so that you can possibly understand the numbers through their Win and Place info. The numbers for Week# 2:
|
NO |
1 |
2 |
3 |
W% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VAR |
P% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VAR | |
|
ROSARIO |
127 |
25 |
24 |
20 |
19.7% |
22.3% |
7.331 |
38.6% |
40.8% |
13.875 |
|
CASTELLANO |
124 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
17.7% |
23.0% |
5.814 |
35.5% |
39.0% |
11.627 |
|
VELAZQUEZ J |
93 |
16 |
11 |
16 |
17.2% |
26.8% |
4.787 |
30.1% |
44.9% |
4.197 |
|
LEZCANO J |
96 |
12 |
11 |
14 |
12.5% |
18.4% |
0.232 |
25.0% |
39.7% |
1.506 |
|
ALVARADO |
59 |
10 |
5 |
3 |
18.6% |
23.8% |
4.307 |
28.8% |
37.4% |
0.139 |
|
VELASQUEZ C |
68 |
9 |
6 |
8 |
14.7% |
16.7% |
1.983 |
23.5% |
29.0% |
0.446 |
|
SAEZ L |
88 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
10.2% |
11.1% |
1.563 |
18.2% |
28.1% |
5.398 |
|
NAPRAVNIK |
80 |
7 |
13 |
9 |
8.8% |
16.5% |
3.066 |
25.0% |
27.2% |
1.368 |
|
ORTIZ I |
90 |
7 |
11 |
13 |
8.9% |
10.6% |
4.039 |
21.1% |
28.8% |
3.634 |
|
MARAGH |
68 |
6 |
5 |
12 |
8.8% |
22.0% |
2.317 |
16.2% |
32.0% |
6.105 |
|
ORTIZ J |
68 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
10.3% |
20.5% |
2.349 |
19.1% |
22.3% |
4.698 |
|
ALBARADO |
32 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
12.5% |
17.2% |
0.739 |
28.1% |
22.6% |
4.603 |
|
SOLIS |
38 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
10.5% |
10.1% |
0.375 |
15.8% |
27.4% |
6.013 |
|
ESPINOZA |
42 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
9.5% |
6.9% |
1.384 |
19.0% |
17.3% |
2.767 |
|
ROCCO |
48 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
8.3% |
13.3% |
2.476 |
12.5% |
36.9% |
9.118 |
|
PRADO |
45 |
3 |
9 |
7 |
6.7% |
13.0% |
4.713 |
26.7% |
30.8% |
3.908 |
|
GARCIA A |
16 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
12.5% |
8.9% |
0.563 |
18.8% |
26.4% |
5.124 |
|
BRIDGMOHAN |
24 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
4.2% |
12.2% |
8.338 |
25.0% |
19.7% |
0.010 |
As was mentioned in Week One, a repeat of the terminology explanations: For a better understanding of the terminologies, and the purpose for these headings. W% is self-explanatory. It will be the wins divided by number of races. There sometimes would be a difference between the W% as you know it, and what it actually is. If the jockey is part of an entry, and the other half of the entry wins, the jockey will get credit for the win in the W%, but it won’t be reflected in number of wins. The Break Point Pct. Is the average payoff translated into a comparable percentage to the W%. If the W% is greater than the Break Point Pct., the jockey would realize a profit. Lastly, Track Variance is utilized to evaluate a jockey based on the size of the fields he/she wins in(i.e. extreme example: if two jocks are at 20%, they are initially regarded as equal. But, if one jockey won in a two-horse race, and the other won in a 20-horse race, their numbers would be 50.000 and 95.000 after that race). Track Variance is a good gauge for determining the success of the jockey.
Also, after the Who’s Hot/Who’s Not segment, there will be the Inner Turf standings, the Mellon Turf standings, and the Total Turf(Inner Turf and Mellon Turf) standings, to possibly get some insight into which jockeys seem to have an affinity for the grass.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT
After this past week, the numbers are starting to accumulate. With that, there should be some better insight into possible jockey trends. Criteria for making the grade: At least (3 wins, W%-5=>Br.Pt.Pct, Track Variance =>14.000), (five 1st or 2nd’s,P%-4=>Br.Pt.Pct, Track Variance=>16.000), or( Six 1st 2nd, or 3rd’s, S%-3=>Br.Pt.Pct, Track Variance=>17.000). For the bad side, at least 20 races, with a Track Variance of -5(5.000), or less.
HOT
Robby Albarado – P.P. 1 has been his most dominant spot, having won 3-of-7, in which he has realized a Win profit. Haven’t seen much of him recently. Unsure if he’s taken a leave of absence, or, if he’s taken his tack elsewhere.
Javier Castellano – One of the leaders, has a lot of upside. Middle distance(6 ½ or 7 furlongs) has been rewarding for a Place or Show bet(12-2-4-3). Turf races from PP 1 has realized a profit across the board(Win, Place, and Show; 9-4-2-1). PP’s 4 & 6 have been rewarding for Place and Show betting ventures. 29-7-8-4.
Jose Lezcano – PP3 has been rewarding for Win and Place wagers. Overall, his record is 13-4-2-1 for PP3.
Rajiv Maragh – When running in a Sprint race(6 furlongs or less), and he’s breaking from PP7, he is unscathed, going 3-for-3 in the win column. Thus far, if wagering a Show bet on a Fast track, or a Sprint race, you’d be in the plus column, having hit 29-of-47.
Rosie Napravnik – She has been consistent in Sprint races, earning a profit on all Show wagers, hitting 12-of-19.
Irad Ortiz – Only missed hitting the board once in eight tries, from PP2. Good for a Show bet.
Joel Rosario – Another one of the leaders that has a lot of upside. Still maintaining the dominance over the Inner Turf course, good for Place, and Show(35-9-7-7). On Turf, PP1 is good for Win and Show(10-3-1-3). PP4 is good for Show(6-for-10). Overall, the lucky spot Post Positions are PP1(Show) 13-for-19; PP3(Win and Place) 15-5-2-0; PP5(Show) 7-for-11; and PP7(Show) 6-for-10.
Luis Saez – 3-for-8 from PP9, in wins, realizing a Win bet profit.
Alex Solis – Realizes a Win profit when breaking from PP4(3-for-9).
Cornelio Velasquez – “Corn Hole” is productive on Mellon Turf for Win and Place wagers(16-4-2-0). PP6 is good for a Show wager(6-for-10).
John Velazquez – Last of the leaders with upside. Pletcher’s favorite jockey usually is difficult to realize a profit with, due to his immense popularity among the Saratoga throng. Despite lack of huge payoffs, he is profitable for a Show bet on Fast tracks(24-for-37). Middle distances(6 ½ or 7 furlongs) is good for Place and Show(11-2-3-2), and Route distances(mile or longer) is good for Show(7-for-10). Overall, PP’s 4 and 5 for a Win bet is profitable(8-for-25).
NOT
Jose Lezcano – Unproductive in races on dirt below a mile(1-for-33), and Fast tracks(3-for-37).
Rajiv Maragh – Has yet to see the Winner’s Circle in a Turf race(37 races).
Rosie Napravnik – The thorn in her side might be the Turf races(2-for-44).
Irad Ortiz – Can’t win beyond 6 furlongs on dirt(20 races). He’s 1-for-21 on the Inner Turf course.
Jose Ortiz – 1-for-30 on the dirt.
Edgar Prado – 2-for-35 on Turf.
Joseph Rocco – 1-for-27 on Turf.
Luis Saez – Races below a mile on dirt, is 2-for-37. Talk about a stark contrast!!!! PP’s 1-8 is 3-for-70, PP’s 9-12 is 6-for-18.
John Velazquez – 1-for-23 on the Inner Turf course.
INNER TURF
|
NO |
1 |
2 |
3 |
W% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VAR |
P% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VAR | |
|
ROSARIO |
35 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
25.7% |
22.5% |
14.393 |
45.7% |
39.8% |
23.071 |
|
CASTELLANO |
33 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
21.2% |
17.8% |
10.205 |
36.4% |
33.3% |
14.350 |
|
LEZCANO J |
32 |
5 |
3 |
6 |
15.6% |
16.3% |
4.049 |
25.0% |
35.0% |
1.849 |
|
SAEZ L |
23 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
17.4% |
8.6% |
7.067 |
21.7% |
22.7% |
1.090 |
|
ORTIZ J |
17 |
3 |
2 |
0 |
17.6% |
19.5% |
7.392 |
29.4% |
18.8% |
8.902 |
|
ESPINOZA |
16 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
12.5% |
5.8% |
2.172 |
18.8% |
15.7% |
1.907 |
|
VELAZQUEZ J |
27 |
2 |
2 |
5 |
7.4% |
21.7% |
4.067 |
14.8% |
36.0% |
8.135 |
|
GARCIA A |
8 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
12.5% |
14.5% |
1.557 |
12.5% |
32.3% |
9.386 |
|
ROCCO |
13 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
7.7% |
10.9% |
2.220 |
7.7% |
27.8% |
12.132 |
|
SOLIS |
16 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
6.3% |
6.6% |
3.527 |
12.5% |
24.7% |
7.055 |
|
ALVARADO |
16 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
6.3% |
29.9% |
4.624 |
18.8% |
38.7% |
9.248 |
|
VELASQUEZ C |
20 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
5.0% |
35.1% |
5.261 |
10.0% |
29.6% |
10.521 |
|
ORTIZ I |
21 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
4.8% |
19.2% |
5.702 |
14.3% |
26.0% |
6.641 |
|
PRADO |
17 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
5.9% |
19.2% |
5.715 |
35.3% |
36.3% |
12.100 |
|
NAPRAVNIK |
22 |
1 |
5 |
1 |
4.5% |
7.8% |
5.892 |
27.3% |
22.6% |
6.398 |
|
ALBARADO |
6 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0.0% |
###### |
9.327 |
16.7% |
18.9% |
1.987 |
|
MARAGH R |
15 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
0.0% |
###### |
9.980 |
6.7% |
39.2% |
13.293 |
|
BRIDGMOHAN |
8 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0.0% |
###### |
11.498 |
12.5% |
6.8% |
10.497 |
MELLON TURF
|
NO |
1 |
2 |
3 |
W% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VAR |
P% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VAR | |
|
CASTELLANO J |
37 |
7 |
3 |
10 |
18.9% |
25.9% |
7.949 |
27.0% |
46.0% |
5.088 |
|
VELASQUEZ C |
16 |
4 |
2 |
0 |
25.0% |
12.8% |
14.444 |
37.5% |
22.4% |
16.389 |
|
ALVARADO |
17 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
23.5% |
20.8% |
12.451 |
23.5% |
44.9% |
1.373 |
|
LEZCANO J |
22 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
18.2% |
17.5% |
7.027 |
22.7% |
38.9% |
0.418 |
|
VELAZQUEZ J |
23 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
13.0% |
29.0% |
2.003 |
17.4% |
48.5% |
4.690 |
|
ROSARIO |
33 |
3 |
7 |
6 |
9.1% |
14.0% |
1.735 |
30.3% |
35.5% |
8.651 |
|
ALBARADO |
9 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
22.2% |
22.7% |
10.648 |
33.3% |
42.0% |
10.185 |
|
SOLIS |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
20.0% |
12.5% |
9.556 |
20.0% |
31.0% |
0.889 |
|
SAEZ L |
21 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
9.5% |
10.6% |
0.631 |
19.0% |
28.4% |
1.263 |
|
ORTIZ J |
21 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
9.5% |
23.5% |
0.816 |
23.8% |
21.1% |
3.129 |
|
ORTIZ I |
28 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
7.1% |
5.4% |
3.271 |
25.0% |
21.4% |
4.172 |
|
ESPINOZA |
14 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
7.1% |
18.5% |
3.155 |
14.3% |
27.4% |
6.310 |
|
PRADO |
18 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
5.6% |
6.8% |
5.154 |
27.8% |
24.4% |
6.358 |
|
NAPRAVNIK |
22 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4.5% |
11.4% |
6.366 |
13.6% |
23.1% |
8.186 |
|
MARAGH R |
22 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
0.0% |
###### |
10.060 |
9.1% |
33.1% |
11.028 |
|
ROCCO |
14 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0.0% |
###### |
10.709 |
7.1% |
54.1% |
14.275 |
|
GARCIA A |
3 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0.0% |
###### |
11.204 |
33.3% |
33.9% |
10.926 |
|
BRIDGMOHAN |
5 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0.0% |
###### |
11.746 |
80.0% |
34.0% |
56.508 |
TOTAL TURF
|
NO |
1 |
2 |
3 |
W% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VAR |
P% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VAR | |
|
CASTELLANO |
70 |
14 |
8 |
14 |
20.0% |
21.1% |
9.013 |
31.4% |
38.1% |
9.454 |
|
ROSARIO |
68 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
17.6% |
19.5% |
6.566 |
38.2% |
38.0% |
16.073 |
|
LEZCANO J |
54 |
9 |
4 |
9 |
16.7% |
16.8% |
5.263 |
24.1% |
36.4% |
1.266 |
|
SAEZ L |
44 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
13.6% |
9.2% |
3.393 |
20.5% |
24.9% |
0.033 |
|
ALVARADO |
33 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
15.2% |
22.2% |
4.172 |
21.2% |
42.0% |
3.777 |
|
VELASQUEZ C |
36 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
13.9% |
14.6% |
3.497 |
22.2% |
23.8% |
1.439 |
|
ORTIZ J |
38 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
13.2% |
21.0% |
2.856 |
26.3% |
19.9% |
5.711 |
|
VELAZQUEZ J |
50 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
10.0% |
25.6% |
1.275 |
16.0% |
41.3% |
6.550 |
|
SOLIS |
26 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
11.5% |
9.6% |
1.504 |
15.4% |
27.5% |
4.683 |
|
ESPINOZA |
30 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
10.0% |
7.5% |
0.314 |
16.7% |
18.9% |
3.961 |
|
ORTIZ I |
49 |
3 |
7 |
4 |
6.1% |
7.1% |
4.313 |
20.4% |
22.6% |
0.462 |
|
ALBARADO |
15 |
2 |
2 |
0 |
13.3% |
22.7% |
2.658 |
26.7% |
32.1% |
5.316 |
|
PRADO |
35 |
2 |
9 |
4 |
5.7% |
10.1% |
5.427 |
31.4% |
29.7% |
9.147 |
|
NAPRAVNIK |
44 |
2 |
7 |
4 |
4.5% |
9.2% |
6.129 |
20.5% |
22.8% |
0.894 |
|
GARCIA A |
11 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
9.1% |
14.5% |
1.923 |
18.2% |
33.1% |
3.846 |
|
ROCCO |
27 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
3.7% |
10.9% |
6.622 |
7.4% |
36.7% |
13.243 |
|
MARAGH R |
37 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
0.0% |
###### |
10.027 |
8.1% |
34.9% |
11.946 |
|
BRIDGMOHAN |
13 |
0 |
5 |
0 |
0.0% |
###### |
11.594 |
38.5% |
19.0% |
15.274 |
Always know that the law of averages has to come around. This is hoping that if you're in between on some selections, that this can steer you in the right direction. Good luck on all your ventures.
~Written by Brian Bradley, aka Cause for Concern