Jockey Stats - Who's Hot & Who's Not at Saratoga
The first week has went to the wayside at Saratoga Race Course, and the jockey standings have started to take place. Joel Rosario is first out of the gate, and he has opened a 3-win lead. These standings are not complete, but compose the majority of the jockey colony currently at Saratoga. Here are the standings:
|
NO |
1 |
2 |
3 |
W% |
BR PT PCT |
TRACK VARIANCE | |
|
ROSARIO |
85 |
16 |
16 |
13 |
18.8% |
22.8% |
6.751 |
|
CASTELLANO |
81 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
16.0% |
24.9% |
4.683 |
|
VELAZQUEZ |
59 |
9 |
7 |
9 |
15.3% |
26.0% |
3.274 |
|
VELASQUEZ |
47 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
12.8% |
12.2% |
1.781 |
|
LEZCANO J |
62 |
6 |
4 |
9 |
9.7% |
16.9% |
2.589 |
|
NAPRAVNIK |
57 |
5 |
10 |
7 |
8.8% |
17.7% |
2.368 |
|
SAEZ L |
61 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
8.2% |
13.7% |
2.988 |
|
SOLIS |
21 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
19.0% |
10.1% |
9.182 |
|
ESPINOZA |
27 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
14.8% |
6.9% |
4.522 |
|
ALVARADO |
36 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
11.1% |
34.3% |
0.982 |
|
ORTIZ J |
47 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
8.5% |
17.2% |
2.033 |
|
MARAGH |
49 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
8.2% |
22.9% |
2.540 |
|
ORTIZ I |
57 |
3 |
8 |
6 |
7.0% |
7.8% |
6.014 |
|
PRADO |
22 |
2 |
6 |
3 |
9.1% |
11.1% |
1.655 |
|
ALBARADO |
27 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
7.4% |
20.6% |
4.361 |
|
GARCIA A |
12 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
8.3% |
6.5% |
3.499 |
|
BRIDGMOHAN |
15 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
6.7% |
12.2% |
5.789 |
For a better understanding of the terminologies, and the purpose for these headings. W% is self-explanatory. It will be the wins divided by number of races. There sometimes would be a difference between the W% as you know it, and what it actually is. If the jockey is part of an entry, and the other half of the entry wins, the jockey will get credit for the win in the W%, but it won’t be reflected in number of wins. The Break Point Pct. Is the average payoff translated into a comparable percentage to the W%. If the W% is greater than the Break Point Pct., the jockey would realize a profit. Lastly, Track Variance is utilized to evaluate a jockey based on the size of the fields he/she wins in(i.e. extreme example: if two jocks are at 20%, they are initially regarded as equal. But, if one jockey won in a two-horse race, and the other won in a 20-horse race, their numbers would be 50.000 and 95.000 after that race). Track Variance is a good gauge for determining the success of the jockey.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT
Though there are not many numbers that can be crunched so far, we’ll take a stab at seeing if any trends are developing. For the most part, these numbers are based on what the jockey has accomplished, with no regard to the horse(s) he/she is riding. If you’re in a situation where you’re playing multiple horse exotics, you might regard one of these jockey trends. Criteria for making the grade: At least 3 wins, five 1st or 2nd’s, Six 1st 2nd, or 3rd’s. For the bad side, at least 18 races, with no wins.
HOT
Joel Rosario – He has been a tear on the Inner Turf course. So far he’s had 21 mounts, with 6 wins, 4 seconds, and 4 thirds. If you were to have bet him across the board every time he was on the Inner Turf course, you would be realizing a profit. In all turf races, he is 25-for-43 in the money. If you bet him to Show every time, you’d be in the plus column. In all races, you’d realize a profit for Place and Show wagers in Post Position #1(12-2-4-2).
Javier Castellano – Post Positions 3 and 4 have produced 6 wins in 19 races, realizing a profit. Also, PP 4 has been worthwhile for a Place wager.
John Velazquez – Has been profitable for a Show bet, when racing in a sprint race(6 furlongs, or less, on dirt) 6-for-10.
Jose Lezcano – Has realized a profit when breaking from PP 3(4-for-11).
Rosie Napravnik –When she is in a sprint race(6 furlongs or less) on dirt, she has realized a profit across the board. 12-4-1-3.
Luis Saez – When breaking from PP 2, he is profitable as a Place bet(5-for-9).
NOT
Javier Castellano - On all turf races, from Post Position 6 on out, he is 0-for-18 to date. Overall, Post Position 7 on out, he’s 0-for-22.
Jose Lezcano – Has yet to win a race below a Mile(0-for-22) on dirt. From PP 4 thru 7, he’s 0-for-25.
Rosie Napravnik – She is 0-for-23 from PP’s 1 thru 7 on turf.
Luis Saez – Is 0-for-25 in races shorter than a Mile on dirt. On turf, PP’s 1 thru 8, is 0-for-19.
~Written by Brian Bradley, aka Cause for Concern