Jockey Club Oaks odds and analysis: Fionn-Laurelin rematch

The Grade 3, $350,000 Jockey Club Oaks drew a field of eight 3-year-old fillies who will race 1 3/8 miles on an Aqueduct turf course on Saturday. Fionn is the only Grade 1 winner in the field and the only millionaire.

Three fillies in the Jockey Club Oaks are stakes winners. In addition to Fionn, there are a pair of Grade 2 winners. Three others are stakes-placed, and two of them got that status in Grade 2 races. The other two fillies won an allowance in their most recent start.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Jockey Club Oaks with morning-line odds by Brian Zipse from Horse Racing Nation. The JC Oaks is carded as race 7 of 10 with post time scheduled for 2:39 p.m. EST.

1. Scythian, 12-1. Tiz the Law – Bill Mott / Sahin Civaci – 6: 2-1-2 - $199,340. This New York-bred was a maiden winner against boys at Saratoga as a 2-year-old. She went from there to win the Miss Grillo (G2) in October at Aqueduct. That earned her a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, where she was unable to contend after a troubled trip in the early going. This year she was third in a pair of state-bred allowances and last month was blocked and had to check on the turf at Aqueduct. Like others better.

2. Hereforagoodtime, 8-1. Justify – Brendan Walsh / John Velazquez – 10: 2-2-3 - $460,791. Hereforagoodtime broke her maiden in her sixth try at Keeneland in April in a race that was meant for the turf but ended up with a field of six on a good main track. She won a turf allowance at Churchill Downs in May before hitting the board in the Regret (G3), the Pucker Up (G2) and then in September in the Dueling Grounds Oaks (G3). In two of those graded stakes, Fionn was the winner. Trifecta finish possible.

3. National Archive, 10-1. Constitution – Miguel Clement / Manny Franco – 6: 3-1-0 - $169,786. National Archive is another New York-bred. She was a maiden winner as a juvenile and then took the winter off. This year she won a pair of allowance races, first against state-breds and then in a field of seven in an Aqueduct open-company race. This will be her first start in a stakes. Toss.

4. Fionn, 2-1. Twirling Candy – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 9: 6-1-1 - $1,817,670. Fionn has the most victories of the fillies in the Jockey Club Oaks. Those include stakes races in the LaCombe Memorial at Fair Grounds, the Regret, the Belmont Oaks (G1) and the Dueling Grounds Oaks. She went into the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) as the favorite, with wins in her last three races. She broke slowly in that race last month, got far behind and got no closer than fourth. She will run without blinkers for the first time. Win contender.

5. Evershed, 8-1. Churchill – Arnaud Delacour / Dylan Davis – 5: 2-2-0 - $213,490. Evershed was a maiden winner in her second try as a 2-year-old at Tampa Bay Downs. She came back from the winter off to win an allowance at Colonial Downs in July with a stalking trip. She then was second in the Saratoga Oaks (G2) behind Laurelin, who was undefeated at the time. Last seen Evershed raced on the lead on a soft turf course at Colonial, held on stubbornly but was passed nearing the end of the nine-furlong Old Dominion Oaks in Virginia. Live long shot.

6. Don’t Jinx It, 12-1. Kitten’s Joy – Miguel Clement / Juan Rodriguez – 7: 2-2-1 - $129,050. Don’t Jinx It broke her maiden in her fourth try in June at Delaware Park. She was a front-end allowance winner at Saratoga, where she was able to run unchallenged while setting a slow pace. In September she was second in the Christina Stakes at Delaware on soft turf. Toss.

7. Laurelin, 9-5. Zarak – H. Graham Motion / Kendrick Carmouche – 6: 5-1-0 - $696,375. Laurelin was undefeated in her first five starts, beginning last year in October, and then became a stakes winner in the Tepin at Aqueduct. After taking time off in the winter, Laurelin added the Memories of Silver in New York in her 2025 debut in April. She added the Penn Oaks and the Saratoga Oaks to keep the streak alive. Laurelin made her first start in a Grade 1 in the QE II, where she was second choice behind Fionn. She finished second when she was unable to run down the winner, who got to the lead and took control of the race. Laurelin is 3-for-3 on the grass at Aqueduct. Top choice.

8. Unmerited Favor, 10-1. Summer Front – Kenny McPeek / Chris Elliot – 6: 2-1-0 - $200,870. Unmerited Favor got her maiden win in her fifth start, which came at Kentucky Downs in September. She followed that with an allowance victory at Keeneland in October when she rallied from far back after a slow start in a longer distance race against a field of 11. Use underneath.

Summary: The Jockey Club Oaks features a rematch between two talented 3-year-old fillies in Fionn and Laurelin, who have six and five victories in their careers respectively.

The fourth-place finish in the QE II in October was the first time that Fionn finished out of the top three. She gets an equipment change here, taking the blinkers off. Laurelin got her only loss in that same race when she was beaten by Lush Lips, who got the jump on the field when she took control of the race mid-stretch. Interestingly, Lush Lips sold for $3.7 million at the recent Keeneland November sale.

I am concerned about the equipment change with Fionn after she wore blinkers in all 10 starts. Evershed looks like the up-and-comer in the field and brings better odds. Laurelin and Fionn will vie for favoritism, but Laurelin is the top choice and will be used in the exacta with Fionn and Evershed.