Fair odds: Get to know this value play for Jockey Club Gold Cup

I am going to be honest with you. Until it was time to handicap the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, I did not know the horse Tyson existed. Now he's my pick to win the race on Saturday at Saratoga.

Technically, I think no. 4 Rattle N Roll is a more likely winner, but based on how I think the public will bet this race, I see Tyson as the play.

What we have seen on synthetic to date matches up well with anyone in this group, and I see no reason to think a son of Tapit out of a Smart Strike mare will have problems with either the dirt or 1 1/4-mile distance.

To be sure, those are huge question marks for the Josie Carroll trainee, but this colt will be third choice at absolute worst and very likely lower ranked than that. In other words, we're getting the right price to answer the questions.

The pace is interesting in this race, as several in here have shown an affinity for being forwardly placed but not necessarily gate-to-wire types. That somewhat compromises both no. 1 Proxy and the aforementioned Rattle N Roll, but if things are hot on the front end, then either has a better chance. I prefer Rattle N Roll because of the consistently fast numbers.

No. 8 Bright Future is as much a wild card to me as is Tyson. But I have Bright Future as a longer price on my fair odds, so because I think Tyson will actually carry longer odds, I prefer him. If anyone ends up stealing this, though, Randomized-in-the-Alabama style, then Bright Future would be the one to do it.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup is one of two Breeders' Cup Classic prep races on Saturday with the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar the other. Based on my current Breeders' Cup Classic fair odds, I expect the Pacific Classic to have more a say in the Breeders' Cup than the JCGC, but both will be key pieces to America's richest race.