Jockey Club Gold Cup fair odds: Foster rematch favors also-ran

When Mindframe and Sierra Leone last squared off, Mindframe defeated the 2024 champion 3-year-old male in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs. Now they are set for a rematch in the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) on Sunday at Saratoga, but there are two big differences.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup is 1 1/4 miles, not 1 1/8 miles, and Sierra Leone’s trainer Chad Brown plans to enter Contrary Thinking, who helped ensure a swift pace in the Whitney Stakes (G1), which Sierra Leone won.

Both differences favor Sierra Leone, who disappointed his fans and chalk bettors when he was a non-threatening third at 3-10 in the New Orleans Classic Stakes (G2), But that race was not bad from a figure perspective, especially on the curve of being his 4-year-old debut off a 4 1/2-month layoff.

The Foster was a move forward for Sierra Leone off his comeback race but lacked the pace he got in the Whitney. Part of the reason for that pace will return in the Jockey Club Gold Cup along with other forward horses. All that conspires to make Sierra Leone the most likely winner of this race and even potentially value, given Mindframe certainly will take his share of money.

If White Abarrio gets ignored off two disappointing, fourth-place Saratoga finishes in the Met Mile (G1) and Whitney, then he potentially could be worth a play to rebound. His Whitney definitely was better than the Met Mile.

Highland Falls was second to Sierra Leone in the Whitney, and although beating both Mindframe and White Abarrio is a tall ask, there might be some value in that exacta repeating.