Jockey Club Gold Cup: Odds, analysis for Saratoga showdown
A $1 million purse and a win-and-you’re-in spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic are on the line for horses from the older male dirt division in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga on Sunday. Sierra Leone was made the 8-5 morning-line favorite in the field of nine, just ahead of Mindframe.
The Jockey Club Gold Cup this year includes six horses who are millionaires. There are eight graded-stakes winners with four who have at least one Grade 1 victory. Overall, the nine horses have 53 wins and more than $21.8 million in career earnings.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Jockey Club Gold Cup with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Gold Cup is set as race 5 of 14 with post time scheduled for 1:45 p.m. EDT.
1. Disarm, 20-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 17: 4-3-4 - $1,559,165. Disarm was third in the Whitney behind Sierra Leone and Highland Falls when he rallied from 11 lengths off the pace. In 2023, he was second in Arcangelo’s Travers (G1), and his most recent stakes win was in June of that year when he won the Matt Winn (G3). Toss.
2. Highland Falls, 6-1. Curlin – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 12: 6-3-1 - $1,512,660. Highland Falls won the Gold Cup last year when he pressed the pace and drew off to win by four lengths at 7-1. With a position in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in hand, he went to Del Mar and did not get close enough in the early going and faded to ninth. This year he won an allowance at Aqueduct in June and then was second in the Whitney (G1). The field in the 2025 Jockey Club is much stronger than last year. Win contender.
3. Sierra Leone, 8-5. Gun Runner – Chad Brown / Flavien Prat –12: 5-4-3 - $6,806,200. Sierra Leone hit the board in all 12 of his starts and can be expected to make his powerful stretch run. When the early pace is hot, he is hard to beat. He is a three-time Grade 1 winner beginning with the Blue Grass as a 2-year-old, last year in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and then in his most recent start in the Whitney. Of course he just missed a Kentucky Derby victory when he finished a nose behind Mystik Dan. As a 4-year-old his tendency to drift in the stretch has been absent. Top pick.
4. Mindframe, 9-5. Constitution – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 7: 5-2-0 - $1,844,580. Mindframe has never finished worse than second in seven career starts, which include five Grade 1 races. He won his first two races as a 3-year-old last year by more than 21 lengths combined and then moved into graded stakes. Mindframe won the seven-furlong Churchill Downs (G1) and the Stephen Foster (G1) in his two most recent races, where he defeated Banishing and Sierra Leone. In the sprint he used a long and sustained rally to win by a neck. In the Foster he pressed the pace, took the lead in the upper stretch and held off late-running challengers. Win contender.
5. White Abarrio, 8-1. Race Day – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 22: 10-2-3 - $7,091,920. White Abarrio leads this field in career earnings and victories. He has an impressive list of Grade 1 wins with the Pegasus World Cup in January, the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Whitney in 2023 and the Florida Derby as a 3-year-old. Since leaving Florida this year he was fourth in the Met Mile (G1) and the Whitney at Saratoga. Reports say he came out of the Whitney in excellent shape and is training in earnest. Use underneath.
6. Contrary Thinking, 99-1. Into Mischief – Chad Brown / Dylan Davis – 6: 2-0-0 - $110,040. Contrary Thinking won his debut at Aqueduct in April of 2024 and then won an allowance there four races later this year in June. His first start in a stakes race resulted in a ninth-place finish in the Whitney when he stopped running and was eased. Toss.
7. Phileas Fogg, 15-1. Astern – Gustavo Rodriguez / Kendrick Carmouche – 19: 9-4-0 - $736,773. Phileas Fogg was taken from an optional-claiming allowance for $62,500 at Saratoga last summer. From there he won three races in a row, including a pair of allowances and the Queens County at Aqueduct by eight lengths. Phileas Fogg retained his excellent form with a victory in the Excelsior, a second in the Pimlico Special (G3) and another win in the Suburban (G2), which was run at Saratoga on July 4. Use underneath.
8. Antiquarian, 12-1. Preservationist – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 8: 3-3-0 - $394,100. Antiquarian went from a maiden win at Fair Grounds to a sixth in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He won the Peter Pan (G3) at Aqueduct, which led to a fifth in the 2024 Belmont Stakes. This year he won an allowance at Gulfstream Park before finishing second in the Blame (G3) at Churchill and the Suburban. Toss.
9. Banishing, 15-1. Ghostzapper – David Jacobson / Jose Lezcano – 23: 9-5-2 - $1,890,709. Banishing did not become a graded-stakes winner until 2025 as a 5-year-old. He won the Oaklawn Mile (G3) in March and the Charles Town Classic (G2) last Saturday night. This year the David Jacobson trainee made nine starts and finished first or second in eight of them, including a second in the Churchill Downs behind Mindframe. Toss.
Summary: Sierra Leone will get the help of stablemate Contrary Thinking to make sure that will be fast early fractions in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. When the Sierra Leone gets the right pace scenario, he is hard to beat. Although other horses in the field have won at the 10-furlong distance, Mindframe is not one of them. Therefore, Sierra Leone is the top pick.