Jockey Club Gold Cup 2022: Odds and analysis

Saturday’s Grade 1, $1.25 million Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga drew a field of eight runners from older male dirt division. In addition to the purse money, the 1 1/4 mile contest is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, offering a win-and-you’re in spot in the Classic at Keeneland on Nov. 5.

Three Hall of Fame trainers – in Todd Pletcher, Shug McGaughey and Bill Mott – have the top choices in the morning line in this year’s Gold Cup. Combined they have won the race eight times.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Jockey Club Gold Cup, with morning-line odds provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff. The JCGC is carded as race 10 of 13.

1. Tax (15-1 – Arch – Danny Gargan / Kendrick Carmouche – 15: 5-3-1 - $1,042,060) Tax was claimed from his maiden victory at Keeneland for $50,000 and went on to win the Withers (G3) and the Jim Dandy (G2) and participated in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1) in 2019. He was a front-end winner of the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) at Gulfstream Park at the end of 2020. He came back from a year and a half off to win an overnight stakes at Delaware Park in his characteristic gate-to-wire style. He has been training at Saratoga. He will have to run without Lasix, which happened in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) twice when he was never a factor. Toss.

2. Olympiad (5-2 – Speightstown – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 11: 7-1-1 - $1,472,560) Olympiad had a five-race winning streak snapped when he finished fourth in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga a month ago. The 4-year-old won three Grade 2 stakes along with a Grade 3 this year. The Whitney was only the second Grade 1 appearance of his career. In the 2021 Cigar Mile, Olympiad also finished fourth. During that winning streak, Olympiad was the picture of consistency, stalking the pace in second place and then taking control of the race in the upper stretch and drawing off to win by two lengths or so. Bill Mott won the JCGC three times, including in 1995 in the midst of Cigar’s historic winning streak. Win contender.

3. Untreated (10-1 – Union Rags – Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz– 9: 3-1-2 - $233,600) Untreated adds more early pace to the JCGC field after a pair of third-place finishes in the Pimlico Special (G3) and then the Suburban (G2) for Pletcher and Team Valor. He will have to face graded stakes-quality pressure on the front end. Toss.

4. Chess Chief (20-1 – Into Mischief – Dallas Stewart / Manny Franco – 34: 5-4-5 - $894,369) This 6-year-old was the winner of the Tenacious at Fair Grounds in December, which was followed by a trio of sixth-place finishes. Last month Chess Chief finished a distant third in the Alydar at Saratoga. Toss.

5. Americanrevolution (7-2 – Constitution – Todd Pletcher / Joel Rosario – 9: 5-1-1 - $1,090,310) Americanrevolution will make his third start of the year after racing in Kentucky twice, with a fourth in the Blame and then a second in the Stephen Foster (G2). The New York-bred has $1 million in earnings built on his win in the Cigar Mile (G1) in December. Trainer Todd Pletcher opted to skip the Whitney (G1) and target this 10-furlong test. Win contender.

RELATED: First Captain arrives at JCGC on the upswing

6. First Captain (5-1 – Curlin – Shug McGaughey / Luis Saez – 8: 5-1-1 - $550,100) First Captain began his career as a 3-year-old by winning his first three starts at Belmont, progressing from a maiden win to an allowance and then the Dwyer (G3). He ran into Dynamic One in the Curlin, where he finished third. His 4-year-old campaign began with an allowance score at Gulfstream Park in February. The cutback to seven furlongs was unsuccessful in the Carter (G1), but he was able to follow that with a victory in the Pimlico Special (G3) and then a narrow loss to Dynamic One in the Suburban (G2). Trainer Shug McGaughey is a four-time winner of the JCGC spanning 34 years, including with Easy Goer and Code of Honor. Win contender.

7. Keepmeinmind (6-1 – Union Rags – Todd Pletcher / Javier Castellano – 12: 2-3-2 - $803,237) Keepmeinmind made a splash on the 2021 Kentucky Derby trail after he broke his maiden in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as a juvenile. After a pair of Derby preps, he finished a solid seventh in the Run for the Roses. His past performances show a fourth in the Preakness (G1) and the Travers (G1) and a second in the Jim Dandy (G2). He was transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher, and he picked up his second career victory in an allowance in July at Saratoga meeting the odds-on favorite. Live long shot.

8. Dynamic One (3-1 – Union Rags – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 12: 4-3-1 - $699,950) Dynamic One won his last two starts in the Blame at Churchill Downs and then in the 10-furlong Suburban (G2) at Belmont Park in July. Last year, the promising 3-year-old was second in the Wood Memorial (G2) and the winner of the Curlin at Saratoga. He got time off after a disappointing finish in the Travers and came back with four top-three finishes in the older dirt male division this year. Top choice.

Summary: Quality graded stakes-winning horses from the older male dirt division trained by a trio of Hall of Famers, who know how to win the historic Jockey Club Gold Cup, come together to determine whether the Breeders’ Cup Classic will become a realistic goal for November.

A legitimate case to win can be made for the horses entered by McGaughey, Mott and Pletcher. Dynamic One and First Captain look like the horses that are most likely to move forward as the distance increases to 10 furlongs.

Dynamic One gets the nod as top choice based on his last two starts, including the Suburban, which was run at the JCGC distance.