Odds & Analysis: 2021 Jockey Club Gold Cup
With the running of the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup on Saturday, the 1 1/4 mile Grade 1 will make its first appearance at Saratoga. Now the race will have been run at all three of NYRA tracks at least once in the history of its 103 runnings.
The 2021 JCGC is listed in the Saratoga Stakes Book as the 70th stakes race of this meeting. All of the field except for last year’s winner Happy Saver will be trying to win their first Grade 1 race, along with a “win and you’re in” spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Nov. 6 at Del Mar.
Here is a full field analysis for the Jockey Club Gold Cup with odds provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff. The JCGC will be run as race 12 out of 12 with post time scheduled for 6:46 p.m. EDT.
1. Forza Di Oro (5-2 – Speightstown – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 6: 4-1-0 - $209,376) Forza Di Oro won his last three races going back to an allowance at Belmont Park in October, which was followed by a stalking victory in the Discovery (G3) at Aqueduct in November. The son of Speightstown made his 2021 debut a winning one off a nearly 11-month layoff in a top-level allowance on a muddy track at Saratoga on July 21. He will need to run back to the effort in the Discovery to have a chance in his first Grade 1 appearance. Trainer Bill Mott has won the JCGC three times including in 1995 with the Hall of Famer Cigar in what was the horse’s 11th consecutive victory in the winning streak that would turn go on to be 16 races. Use underneath.
2. Max Player (5-2 – Honor Code – Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 10: 3-1-2 - $715,500) Since breaking his maiden at Parx at the end of 2019, Max Player has only run in graded stakes. Of note, he was third in the shortened 2020-version of the Belmont Stakes (G1) and in the Travers (G1), where both times Tiz the Law was the winner. A trip to the Saudi Cup (G1) was a bad experience which led to a sixth-place finish in the Pimlico Special (G3). As was true in his maiden-beaker, Max Player relished the sloppy track when he won the Suburban (G2) at Belmont Park. Win Contender.
3. Chess Chief (12-1 – Into Mischief – Dallas Stewart / Luis Saez – 26: 4-4-4 - $694,928) Chess Chief was the winner of the New Orleans Handicap (G2) in March followed by a third in the Alysheba (G3) at Churchill Downs. Most recently, trainer Dallas Stewart tried the turf at Colonial Downs against fellow Virginia-breds and Chess Chief ran fourth as the odds-on favorite. His record in graded stakes is 10: 1-2-3 with his only start in a Grade 1 coming in the 2019 Travers where he finished eighth. Toss.
4. Happy Saver (8-5 – Super Saver – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 6: 5-0-1 - $374,200) Happy Saver will try to win the JCGC again this year after getting last year’s win as a 3-year-old. Tonalist won as a sophomore and also the following year in 2014 and 2015, as did Curlin in 2007 and 2008. Happy Saver won the first four races of his career last year, came back to start 2021 with an allowance score at Belmont, and then tasted defeat for the first time on a sloppy track in the Suburban (G2). He finished behind Max Player and Mystic Guide in that ten-furlong test which was the only time Happy Saver has run on a wet track. He is the only Grade 1 winner in this field. Last year, Happy Saver gave trainer Todd Pletcher his first victory in the JCGC. Win Contender.
5. Night Ops (6-1 – Warrior’s Reward – Brad Cox / Manny Franco – 24: 6-7-4 - $823,656) Night Ops is the leading money winner in this field with six career victories. This 5-year-old was second in his last four starts, which includes the Alydar at Saratoga behind Art Collector, who went on to win the Charles Town Classic. Night Ops’ most recent victory was in the 2020 Cornhusker (G3), but in his last 10 starts only once did he miss a top 3 finish. Use underneath.
6. Forewarned (20-1 – Flat Out – Uriah St. Lewis / Sonny Leon – 40: 8-7-4 - $592,633) All three of this Ohio-bred’s stakes victories were at Ohio tracks including his last win, which was October of 2020, in the Ohio Endurance at Mahoning Valley going ten-furlongs. Forewarned’s best finish in a graded stakes was a third in the 2020 Westchester (G3). This year, he was eighth in the Pimlico Special (G3). Trainer Uriah St. Lewis was the winner of the 2018 JCGC with the longshot Discreet Lover. Toss.
Summary: The logical win contenders in the Jockey Club Gold Cup are Happy Saver and Max Player. They both prepped for this race in the ten-furlong Suburban at Belmont Park on a wet track where Max Player was an upset winner at odds of 11-1 and Happy Saver tasted defeat for the first time.
Clearly, Max Player loves a sloppy track on which he won both of his starts. Happy Saver did not move ahead on that wet track even though the progeny of Super Saver frequently do relish the mud.
Unless the track at Saratoga comes up sloppy, I am going to favor Happy Saver as the top choice and look at Forza Di Oro as the second choice. Forza Di Oro has the look of a horse that is ready to make a step forward for Bill Mott.