Jockey Club Gold Cup 2020: Odds and analysis

The 2020 running of the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park features two late developing 3-year-olds who will take on older horses for the first time as part of a field of five.

This ten-furlong test has been won by 3-year-olds recently with Code of Honor getting elevated to the win by disqualification last year, with Tonalist being victorious in 2014.

A first-place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup will earn the winner’s share of the $250,000 purse and a “Win and You’re In” spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland on November 7.

Here is a full field analysis for Saturday’s Jockey Club Gold Cup which is carded as race 9 out of 11 with post time scheduled for 4:48 pm ET. The morning line odds are provided by Horse Racing Nation.

1) Happy Saver [ML 5-2 – Super Saver – T. Pletcher/I. Ortiz Jr. – 3: 3-0-0 - $135,900] The late developing 3-year-old is unbeaten in three starts with a win in the Federico Tesio at Laurel last month. Todd Pletcher decided to give him an extra week between races by skipping the larger and deeper field in the Preakness.

The trainer has noted taking on older horses in a Grade 1 will be a test for the son of Super Saver, but that he is training well and has moved forward in each race. He is bred to go the ten furlongs and his stalking style fits well in this field. Pletcher is looking for his first official victory in the JCGC after getting disqualified from the win last year with Vino Rosso. Top Choice

2) Prioritize [ML 5-1 – Tizway – H. James Bond/L. Saez – 14: 4-2-3 - $307,100] While trainer Jimmy Bond was having an outstanding Saratoga meeting, this son of Tizway contributed with an allowance race when rallying from behind going nine furlongs. Most recently he ran a creditable third in the Woodward (G1) just a length behind Tacitus earning a try in the Gold Cup. Early in his career he raced on the turf and was third in the Hill Prince (G2) as a 3-year-old. Since returning to the dirt he has hit the board in all five starts. Use underneath

3) Name Changer [ML 30-1 – Uncle Mo – J. Duarte Jr./M. Franco – 21: 8-2-6 - $542,130] This 7-year-old was a late addition to the field for Colts Neck Stable. Based in New Jersey, he was last seen running fourth in the Salvatore Mile (G3) at Monmouth Park and was second in a listed stake at Laurel in March. The son of Uncle Mo found the winner’s circle most recently in the Queen’s County at Aqueduct in December 2018. Toss

4) Tacitus [ML 6-5 – Tapit – B. Mott/J. Ortiz – 13: 4-4-2 - $2,917,500] Since putting the blinkers back on, Tacitus won the Suburban (G2) at Belmont and then was second in the Woodward (G1) behind Global Campaign, who was finally healthy and ran the best race of his career. Tacitus was third in the JCGC last year behind Vino Rosso and Code of Honor. He was the odds-on favorite in the Woodward and figures as the top betting choice in here. Over the past year and a half he has run second far more often than winning. Bill Mott has won the JCGC three times beginning with the great Cigar in 1995 and then in consecutive years with Flat Out and Ron the Greek in 2012 and 2013. Win Contender

5) Mystic Guide [ML 3-1 – Ghostzapper – M. Stidham/J. Velazquez – 5: 2-1-2 - $143,200] A break through victory in the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga on Kentucky Derby day had trainer Michael Stidham considering the Preakness ,but he decided to go to Belmont Park where Mystic Guide has already run well in an allowance race in June. In the Jim Dandy he beat Jesus’ Team ,who came back to be third in the Preakness. Well regarded all along, Mystic Guide was the favorite in his first four starts, including a third in the Peter Pan (G3). The JCGC distance should not be a problem for the son of Ghostzapper out of an A. P. Indy mare. Win Contender

Summary: Tacitus is likely to be a heavy favorite in the Jockey Club Gold Cup despite the fact that he has only one victory and four second-place finishes in his last nine starts. That win came in July at Belmont. In the Woodward, he ran second behind Global Campaign who won with a front running effort that what was the best performance of his career.

At a short price, Tacitus does not come with positive value. As a result, the 3-year-olds Happy Saver and Mystic Guide should be viewed as serious contenders to upset the JCGC.