Jockey Club Gold Cup 2019: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race
Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup offers a stage for 3-year-olds to take on the older males for the first time, with Code of Honor and Tacitus, the 1-2 Travers (G1) finishers, going the mile-and-a-quarter distance again, this time with a "Win and You're In" spot to the Breeders’ Cup Classic on the line.
Since 2000, five 3-year-olds have won the Gold Cup. Summer Bird, Curlin and Bernardini went on the become the division champions while Curlin also took down the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
A short field of five, which includes four millionaires and three Grade 1 winners, was entered for the Gold Cup, carded as Race 10 of 11 with post time at 5:49 p.m. ET. Here's the analysis with projected morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation.
1) Tacitus [ML 7-2 – Tapit – W. Mott/J. Ortiz – 8: 3-3-1 - $1,583,000] Since early on the Kentucky Derby trail when Tacitus won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and the Wood Memorial (G2), the son of Tapit has three place finishes in a row. Those finishes came in very big races and to very good horses. It is fair to say that he has not run a bad race in his eight-race career, yet it is hard to not feel like he has underachieved this summer. Blinkers went on in the Travers as trainer Bill Mott seemed to be searching for a way to get the gray colt back to the winner’s circle. The equipment change put Tacitus right up with the pacesetter, and he persevered down the stretch while passed by Code of Honor. Based on his Kentucky Derby, the Belmont Stakes and the Mid-Summer Derby, the 10-furlong distance of the JCGC is ideal. But stepping up to face older horses and Code of Honor again, it seems unlikely that he’ll get a win in here. Use underneath.
2) Code of Honor [ML 8-5 – Noble Mission – C. McGaughey/J. Velazquez – 8: 4-2-1 - $1,885,820] With a classy Travers victory, trainer Shug McGaughey opted to pass on the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and, at the time a possible match-up with Maximum Security, to take on older horses here. The decision no doubt considered benefits of racing right out of Code of Honor's stall at Belmont Park with the chance to get a fees-paid Breeders' Cup berth and a victory against older horses on the resume for an Eclipse Award case. Code of Honor clearly comes into the race as a horse who is putting all the pieces together with even more upside, and given he closed in the Travers, there's little traffic to worry about in the JCGC. The top choice.
3) Vino Rosso [ML 9-2 – Curlin – T. Pletcher/I. Ortiz Jr. – 13: 5-0-3 - $1,353,125] Winston Churchill coined the famous phrase to describe Russia, “It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” That is the way that I feel about Vino Rosso. There seems to be no way for handicappers to predict the outcome when the Todd Pletcher runner hits the track. Right when you’re ready to give up on him, he runs big and wins the Gold Cup at Santa Anita (G1). But the son of Curlin has not put two victories in a row since the start of his career. It is interesting, and part of the whole Vino Rosso mystique, that despite all his time in New York, he has only raced at Belmont once, and that was against Justify in his Triple Crown victory. Toss.
4) Preservationist [ML 2-1 – Arch – J. Jerkens/J. Alvarado – 10: 6-1-2 - $1,037,300] The 6-year-old late developer didn't run in a stakes race of any kind until this year, but now he sports victories in Belmont's Suburban (G2) and Saratoga's Woodward (G1). It is interesting that even with him being so lightly raced, he was the favorite in his first six starts and has never gone off at higher than 7-2. He shows a victory at the mile and a quarter in the Suburban at Belmont before a determined victory at the Spa. With four wins in his last five starts, he cannot be ignored. Win Contender.
5) Olympic Village [ML 30-1 – Congrats – R. Hess Jr./J. Castellano – 4: 3-0-0 - $92,340] This Florida-bred broke his maiden at second asking and won an allowance race at Laurel Park last year. He was then victorious in his 3-year-old debut in a claiming race going seven furlongs at Saratoga. He was claimed from Michael Trombetta out of that race for $75,000 and will now make his first start for new owners Ron Paolucci and Jeffrey Lambert. Pretender.
Summary: With a field of just five, The Jockey Club Gold Cup sure looks like a three-horse race among Code of Honor, Tacitus and Preservationist given Vino Rosso is less than reliable. Those three are likely to be the top three choices at the betting windows, too, meaning this isn't too attractive of a betting race.
As a talented 3-year-old, Code of Honor has room to improve, and he'll be my top pick. I'm looking for Tacitus and Preservationist to round out the board.