Jim Dandy fair odds: Speed or closer to pair with Sovereignty?

There are plenty of astute handicappers who will make a case for playing Baeza against Sovereignty in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga, but I am not among them.

I will never fault any horseplayer for looking to beat a 2-5 shot, but there is just not a lot to recommend his four foes running the kind of race we've consistently seen from Sovereignty. Baeza being the clear second choice here makes him the horse to bet against.

The likely dynamics of the race give me some hope for Baeza's vulnerability to finish second. Mo Plex figures to be the pacesetter. If Baeza tries to stalk and pounce, then Sovereignty will be right there with him. If he presses Mo Plex earlier then that certainly hurts his chances while helping closer Hill Road.

Sandman is a closer, too, but I expect him to be as much an underlay as Baeza given his celebrity. I am going to do exacta and trifecta boxes using only Sovereignty, Hill Road and Mo Plex and then pressing those gimmicks with Sovereignty on top. My heaviest wagers will be Sovereignty on top of Hill Road and Mo Plex.