Jim Dandy fair odds: Recent stakes winner is exotics key

The Grade 2 Jim Dandy is not only a prep for the Travers Stakes (G1) but also a potential affidavit on the places Fierceness and Sierra Leone occupy in the 3-year-old male division.

Champion Fierceness was last seen finishing 15th as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby with Sierra Leone in second that day before disappointing with a third-place finish as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes.

Either has the talent to be the leader of the division when all is said and done, but both are behind Belmont and Haskell Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch. A Jim Dandy win would not elevate either to the top of the division but would likely make them the favorite for the Travers Stakes.

Also in the Jim Dandy field is Preakness Stakes winner Seize the Grey. I got egg on my face when I made him  40-1 to win the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, but I'm willing to double down here on him being an underlay again.

Of course, the fly in his ointment, Pony Express, is also a possible hurdle for Fierceness to clear, as Pony Express has speed. Both Seize the Grey and Fierceness have won from off the pace, but against this group I see a duel developing. I greatly prefer Fierceness, as he has the faster races at his best. But there's no denying this sets up more for Sierra Leone.

Admittedly, this is a strange way to introduce Batten Down as a potential value play considering that his two previous wins, as impressive as they were, came in gate-to-wire fashion. But only Sierra Leone was faster in his previous race, and he has been faster than the field sans Fierceness-at-his-best in each of his three previous races.

So what does this mean for how we bet the race? If either Sierra Leone or Fierceness takes way more money than the other, then the longer price is likely to offer value, and I'd just have to let the overbet one beat me. If they're co-favored, then I can't get excited about either alone. But I do think there is opportunity with Batten Down, whom I greatly prefer to Seize the Grey.

This would be a great race for head-to-head props so popular among sports bettors. I'd definitely take Batten Down at a longer price than Seize the Grey. As is, I'll settle for keying him in the exotics.