Jim Dandy odds and analysis: Who can challenge Sovereignty?

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

The Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Sovereignty will be a heavy favorite on Saturday in the Grade 2, $500,000 Jim Dandy. The race, which is restricted to 3-year-olds, drew a field of five who will race 1 1/8 miles on Saratoga's main track.

All five of the Jim Dandy entrants appeared on the Kentucky Derby trail, where Sovereignty and Sandman were winners. Four of them ran in at least one of the Triple Crown races, with Baeza or Sandman covering the third-place finishes in all three legs.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Jim Dandy with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as race 10 of 12 with post time at 5:41 p.m. EDT.

1. Baeza, 3-1. McKinzie – John Shirreffs / Hector Berrios – 6: 1-2-2 - $848,500. Baeza shows up at Saratoga with only a maiden victory to his credit, and that was in his third career start in February at Santa Anita. He was second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) behind the Preakness and Haskell (G1) winner Journalism. In the Triple Crown, he was third in the Derby and the Belmont behind Sovereignty and Journalism. Exacta contender.

2. Sandman, 5-1. Tapit – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz – 10: 3-1-3 - $1,474,595. Sandman is one of the horses in the field with earnings over $1 million. He won the rich Arkansas Derby (G1)for his only stakes victory. He was seventh in the Kentucky Derby after moving up from 18th position. Two weeks later in the Preakness he again closed from the back of the field and this time got up to second in the stretch but finished in the show spot. Blinkers go on. Exacta contender.

3. Mo Plex, 8-1. Complexity – Jeremiah Englehart / Manny Franco – 8: 5-1-2 - $745,000. Mo Plex began his career with wins in his first three starts. He won in his debut in a New York-bred maiden and moved to open company in the Sanford (G3) and then the Funny Cide against state-breds. Manny Franco got on board for the first time when they were third in the Champagne (G1). Mo Plex won a pair of open stakes. He pressed the pace in the seven-furlong Bay Shore and then won again in the Ohio Derby (G3) in June. The Jim Dandy is the toughest test in his career. Exacta contender.

4. Hill Road, 10-1. Quality Road – Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr.– 6: 2-0-2 - $336,496. Hill Road began his career in Ireland, where he won his first race. He was sent to America after running seventh in a Group 1 at the Curragh and then rallied from last to finish third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. He made his first start of 2025 in the Tampa Derby (G3) and again was third. Hill Road impressed when he overcame a poor start to win the Peter Pan (G3). But in the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga, he chased the top horses in the 3-year-old division to finish a non-threatening fifth. Live long shot.

5. Sovereignty, 3-5. Into Mischief – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 7: 4-2-0 - $4,872,800. Sovereignty is the top-ranked 3-year-old in the country after the Triple Crown, where he won the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. Overall, the son of Into Mischief won four of his last five starts, including victories in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs and the Fountain of Youth (G3) at Gulfstream Park. His only loss in the last five was his second in the Florida Derby (G1). Bill Mott won the Jim Dandy four times, beginning in 1990 and most recently in 2017 with Good Samaritan. Top pick.

Summary: The Jim Dandy Stakes is named for the horse who upset Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox in 1930 at odds of 100-1.

Sovereignty was 2-for-2 in this year’s Triple Crown series and will be an odds-on favorite in this year’s Jim Dandy. The morning line says the longest price in the field of five is likely to be around 10-1. Upsets are always a possibility in racing with Baeza and Sandman having the best chance to get the victory if Sovereignty falters.

Vertical wagers in the Jim Dandy don’t make sense with the short odds of Sovereignty unless you are hunting for an upset. More bettors are likely to use him as a "free square" in the horizontals. I expect Sovereignty to come back from his Triple Crown series success and continue his winning ways as Journalism did in the Haskell on Saturday. Sovereignty is the top pick.