Jerome odds, analysis: 2 stand out in Kentucky Derby prep

Saturday’s one-mile, $150,000 Jerome is the third of six stops on New York’s road to Kentucky Derby 2026. After the scratch of Mailata there will be a field of four, so all of the horses will receive qualifying points (10-5-3-2) if they are eligible 3-year-olds. Balboa will be the only newly turned sophomore in the field who previously has earned any Derby points.

Recent winners of the Jerome include Firenze Fire in 2018 and Mind Control in 2019, both of whom went on to earn more than $2 million. The 2020 winner Independence Hall became a multiple graded-stakes winner of more than $800,000, and all three are at stud. Firenze Fire is in Japan, Mind Control in New York and Independence Hall stands at WinStar in Kentucky. The two most recent Jerome runners who made it to the run for the roses were Vyjack in 2013 and Firenze Fire in 2018.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Jerome with morning-line odds by Brian Zipse from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Jerome is scheduled as race 3 out of 9, with post time set for 1:10 p.m. EST.

1. Enforced Agenda, 2-1. Liam’s Map – George Weaver / Flavien Prat – 1: 1-0-0 - $46,750. Enforced Agenda was a debut winner at 23-1 in November, when he dueled for the lead throughout the one-mile race at Aqueduct and prevailed with a one-length advantage. Flavien Prat gets on board after a fantastic year in which he won more than 300 races and took home riding titles at Keeneland and Belmont at the Big A meetings. Use underneath.

2. Freedom’s Echo, 12-1. Independence Hall – Gaudalupe Preciado / Dexter Haddock – 2: 1-0-0 - $19,610. Freedom’s Echo broke last in his debut in a maiden special weight at Parx in October and never was in contention in that six-horse field. Two weeks later he stretched out to a mile in a $40,000 maiden claimer, where he was able to get to the lead while setting very slow fractions and ran off to an 11-length victory against another small field. Freedom’s Echo was sired by the 2020 Jerome winner Independence Hall. Toss.

3. My World, 8-5. Essential Quality – Brad Cox / Jamie Rodriguez – 3: 2-0-0 - $135,250. My World is one of two stakes winners in the Jerome field. After his maiden victory in his second career start at Aqueduct, he went on to win the Nashua by more than three lengths going the one-turn mile at the Big A. The son of Essential Quality sold for $350,000 as a yearling at Keeneland to Robert LaPenta and Madaket Stables. Top pick.

4. Balboa, 7-5. Not This Time – Brittany Russell / Manny Franco– 6: 2-0-2 - $159,360. Balboa was moved from Bob Baffert to Brittany Russell after a pair of fifth-place finishes in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and the American Pharoah (G1). Moving east, Balboa won the J. F. Lewis III at Laurel Park in November and then was third in the Remsen (G2) back on the Kentucky Derby trail. The son of Not This Time is the only horse in the Jerome to earn Derby qualifying points, and he has four. Win contender.

5. Mailata, Scratch. Maximus Mischief – Robert Reid Jr. / Mychal Sanchez – 4: 2-0-1 - $114,500. Mailata will scratch from the Jerome. He won the Parx Future Stars Tuesday as the 1-5 favorite in a three-horse field.

Summary: The Jerome field dropped to four after the scratch of Mailata. Balboa and My World are the two stakes winners in the race and will be the favorites. Those two have experience at Aqueduct, as does Enforced Agenda.

Since moving from the Baffert's barn, Balboa won a six-furlong stakes at Laurel and then had the lead in the Remsen last month but was passed by two horses who are highly rated in the latest Derby futures in Las Vegas. My World moved from a maiden score at the Big A to victory in the Nashua going the one-turn mile for Brad Cox. Enforced Agenda won his only race going the mile.

The mile distance remains a question for Balboa, who has not won beyond six furlongs. The pace projector says he will be on the lead again, which is a positive in this one-turn affair. My World should use a stalking trip to put Balboa to the test in the stretch. My World is the top pick.