Kentucky Derby prep: Jerome Stakes 2025 odds and analysis
Saturday’s one-mile, $150,000 Jerome is the third of six stops on New York’s road to the Kentucky Derby 2025. As an official Derby prep race, 10-5-3-2-1 qualifying points are available to the top five eligible finishers. Studlydoright is the only horse in the field of eight 3-year-olds who has earned Derby points.
Recent winners of the Jerome include Firenze Fire in 2018 and Mind Control in 2019, both of whom went on to earn more than $2 million. The 2020 winner Independence Hall became a multiple graded-stakes winner of more than $800,000. Two recent Jerome runners made it to the Kentucky Derby with Vyjack in 2013 and Firenze Fire in 2018.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Jerome with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Jerome is scheduled as race 8 of 9, with post time set for 3:39 p.m. EST.
1. Enduring Spirit, 20-1. Tiz the Law – Jose Jimenez / Sofia Vives – 5: 1-0-0 - $75,197. Enduring Spirit began his career in the Spring breaking his maiden in his second try in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. Since then he tried two stakes and an allowance with his best finish being a fourth in August. Off since then, he recently moved to the New York barn of trainer Jose Jimenez. Toss.
2. Mansetti, 8-1. Collected – Kevin Attard / Sahin Civaci – 3: 2-0-0 - $104,022. Mansetti is an Ontario-bred with three starts at Woodbine on their synthetic track since September. He was a debut winner on the front-end and then was last in an open company stakes. In November he won a state-bred stakes going six-furlongs. Toss.
3. Ican, 10-1. Preservationist – Rick Dutrow Jr. / Manny Franco – 3: 1-1-0 - $38,725. Ican broke his maiden at Horseshoe Indianapolis in September in his second try in a race that was meant for the turf against a small field. Last month he was second in an allowance behind the morning-line favorite in the Jerome field. Live long shot.
4. Omaha Omaha, 8-1. Audible – Michael Gorham / Raul Mena – 4: 2-0-1 - $67,300. Omaha Omaha is a Virginia-bred who made his first three starts at Delaware Park, beginning on the grass in August. He got his first victory in his third try in October when he rallied from last in a field of seven. At Laurel Park he became an allowance winner with another late rally going two turns. Use underneath.
5. Georgia Magic, 10-1. Good Magic – Ray Handal / Romero Maragh – 1: 1-0-0 - $49,500. Georgia Magic won his only start at the end of November while racing on the lead in a six-furlong sprint at Aqueduct against a field of seven. Toss.
6. Cyclone State, 2-1. McKinzie – Chad Summers / Luis Rivera Jr. – 6: 2-1-0 - $125,750. Cyclone State is an Iowa-bred as his name suggests. Co-owner Gold Square won the Jerome last year with the Pennsylvania-bred Drum Roll Please. The son of McKinzie began his career in July and needed five starts in New York to get his first victory, which came when he raced on the lead going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct. He came right back last month to win a mile allowance at the Big A as an odds-on favorite. One of the favorites.
7. Studlydoright, 7-2. Nyquist – John Robb / Xavier Perez – 7: 3-2-0 - $279,680. Studlydoright is a Maryland-bred who was a debut winner at Laurel in May at odds of 9-2. He then ran in six stakes races, including three that were graded. He won his second start in the Tremont at Saratoga in June with a late rally. Studlydoright was second in the Sanford (G3) and won the Nashua at Aqueduct in November. On the Kentucky Derby trail he was fourth in the Remsen (G2) going nine furlongs and earned two Derby points. Regular rider Xavier Perez comes up from Maryland to stay on board. Top choice.
8. McAfee, 3-1. Cloud Computing – Rick Dutrow Jr. / Jose Gomez – 2: 1-1-0 - $68,880. McAfee ran twice in November at Churchill Downs and won at first asking in a field of 11 with a late rally. He came right back to miss the victory in a starter allowance by a head. McAfee is a half-brother to future champion Thorpedo Anna. Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. completed the Aqueduct winter meeting with a 46% win rate. Win contender.
Summary: The Jerome drew a field of eight in which there are only two stakes winners and only one horse who has run on the Kentucky Derby trail. Two others have a second win in their records in an allowance.
Studlydoright was fourth in the Remsen, earning 2 Derby points. He is the leading money earner in the field with three victories, including the Nashua at Aqueduct and the Tremont at Saratoga in June. He has a win going the one-turn mile and has faced better competition throughout his career than the others. Studlydoright is the top choice.