Jerome Stakes 2024: Odds and analysis for Ky. Derby prep
Saturday’s one-mile, $150,000 Jerome is the third of six stops on New York’s road to Kentucky Derby 2024. As an official Derby prep race, 10-5-3-2-1 qualifying points are available to the top five eligible finishers. Drum Roll Please is the only horse in the field who has earned any Derby points so far.
Recent winners of the Jerome include Firenze Fire in 2018 and Mind Control in 2019, both of whom went on to earn more than $2 million. The 2020 winner Independence Hall became a multiple graded-stakes winner of more than $800,000.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Jerome with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Jerome is scheduled as race 3 of 9, with post time set for 1:19 p.m. EST.
1. Drum Roll Please, 6-5. Hard Spun – Brad Cox / Javier Castellano – 4: 1-1-1 - $101,130. Drum Roll Please earned three Derby qualifying points when he rallied from seventh place to finish third in the Grade 2, 1 1/8-mile Remsen, which was run on a muddy track at Aqueduct. Together owner Gold Square and trainer Brad Cox had plenty of success on the Kentucky Derby trail in the last few years with horses such as Cyberknife and Instant Coffee. Drum Roll Please broke his maiden in his third try, which happened at Aqueduct in October going seven furlongs. Castellano will come back to New York from Florida to stay on board. The one to beat.
2. Khanate, 4-1. Hightail – Todd Pletcher / Manny Franco – 4: 1-0-0 - $44,820. Khanate was purchased as a yearling at Keeneland for $35,000 by Calumet Farm, which likes to take chances in stakes races with horses who are not favored. The Todd Pletcher runner broke his maiden in his third race, which was at Keeneland in October, by more than 10 lengths against a field of 12. He tried two turns at Churchill Downs in November, set the pace and backed out of contention after racing in tight quarters down the stretch. Pletcher is looking for his first win in the Jerome. Do not overlook.
3. Sweet Soddy J, 10-1. Bee Jersey – Raymond Ginter Jr. / Dylan Davis – 8: 3-0-1 - $157,250. Sweet Soddy J was a $750 supplemental nomination into the Jerome. The home-bred son of Bee Jersey has run at seven tracks in his eight-race career and is one of two stakes winners in the Jerome. He won his first two starts in a $40,000 maiden claimer at Colonial Downs and then in the Timonium Juvenile. He continued to race in stakes company, finishing third at Presque Isle, eighth in the Champagne (G1) and most recently winning the Heft last weekend at Laurel Park going seven furlongs. He has wins on the front end and racing from off the pace. Live long shot.
4. El Grande O, 5-2. Take Charge Indy – Linda Rice / Kendrick Carmouche – 8: 3-3-1 - $319,000. El Grande O is the leading money winner and the other stakes winner in this field. All three of the New York-bred’s victories were against state-breds, including his maiden win on the turf at Belmont Park and a pair of stakes on wet tracks at Aqueduct. His best performances were on the front end, including the one-mile Jerome distance in his last start at the end of October. His two starts against open company produced a second in the Skidmore at Saratoga and sixth in the Champagne. Win contender.
5. Regalo, 4-1. Maximus Mischief – Brittany Russell / Sheldon Russell – 3: 2-1-0 - $74,000. Regalo began his career in September and finished second as the favorite at Pimilico. He broke his maiden in October by more than five lengths going seven furlongs at Laurel Park. A month ago he became an allowance winner in Maryland going two turns after pressing the pace and drawing off to win by 4 1/2 lengths. Use underneath.
Summary: The Jerome has a tricky field of five, and none of them can confidently be eliminated as a win or exacta contender.
Brad Cox has the favorite Drum Roll Please in the field and is always dangerous on the Derby trail, where he won the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on Monday.
The pace projector gives El Grande O a chance to get comfortable on the lead, which makes him dangerous going the familiar one-turn mile at Aqueduct. His trainer Linda Rice just set a record for most wins by a trainer in a year on the New York Racing Association circuit by placing horses in the right spots. Thus, El Grande O is the top pick.